Tory Leadership Round Four

Who goes through to the next round?

  • Gove

    Votes: 40 36.4%
  • Hunt

    Votes: 73 66.4%
  • Javid

    Votes: 7 6.4%
  • Johnson

    Votes: 107 97.3%

  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
Having seen inside his (previous) Islington house I can assure you that it was absolutely rank. The kitchen was, literally, smeared in filth, including down the walls. The cleaner, who was hovering for a job as he moved out, got very short shrift.
of-all-the-things-that-didnt-happen-this-didnt-happen-the-most.jpg
 
After bitching about BJ not doing the pointless "debate" & intimating that he's hiding from the meeja, the BBC is now unhappy at the "glut" note use of negative term...) of appearances he's making.
 
As pointed out before, the default position is that we leave without a deal on 31st October. BoJo can achieve that simply by proroguing parliament. In the absence of any change to the legislation, we leave the EU.

In addition, should the opposition parties combine to block a no-deal Brexit (and that looks to be the only way we can leave), they run the risk of Johnson going to the country (in alliance with TBP) as the only party that has tried to deliver Brexit. The risk the opposition parties run is that the anger at the Tories for not delivering Brexit transfers to those opposition parties and BoJo gets back with a working majority.
On yesterday's Politics Live, right at the end of the programme, Stephen Kinnock, Labour MP & EUrophile Remainer, stated that:

(verbatim)
"There is no way for parliament to prevent no deal, it is the legal default position in European law. The only way to stop it without having a referendum would be to revoke, the only way to revoke is if a Prime Minister brings a, actually proposes revoke, in fact they can actually do that without coming to Parliament, it's done by Royal Prerogative, so it's not going to happen. The only way to prevent no deal is to leave the European Union with a deal. The only deal that we have on the table, it's not perfect but it contains a number of very important concessions to Labour's position, is the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, so this talk about preventing no deal, it's not going to happen."

Boris Johnson, after all he has said, is not going to bring TM's deal back before parliament. The only way that I can see the WA coming back is if the backstop is either removed in its entirety or at the very least, time limited. That's the only chance of it getting through parliament and so the only way of us leaving with a deal. BoJo will not revoke A50 and he won't allow a second referendum.

Again, after what Boris has said, I seriously doubt he would ask for another extension to A50 and I also seriously doubt that the EU27 would, in any case, unanimously agree to it.
 
I mentioned it first thing this morning.
Just leave it for a few days, wait till Johnson makes a gaff it won’t be long then we can jump in again.
I too wanted Raab but I’d rather Hunt over Johnson as like you I just don’t trust him.
So you don't want Brexit?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Boris Johnson, after all he has said, is not going to bring TM's deal back before parliament. The only way that I can see the WA coming back is if the backstop is either removed in its entirety or at the very least, time limited. That's the only chance of it getting through parliament and so the only way of us leaving with a deal. BoJo will not revoke A50 and he won't allow a second referendum.
BoJo is clearly going to make a determined effort to leave the EU. I think he realises its going to be a no-deal Brexit. All this talk about trying for an arranged deal is largely for public consumption and to keep the Remain wing of the Tory party on side. He has to be seen to be making a genuine and sustained effort to get a deal. If the EU say its May's WA or no deal, BoJo can then say "I tried to get a deal", before going for a no deal Brexit.

It will also be a game changer for parliament, although most people haven't recognised it yet. Before, parliament was rejecting a deeply flawed WA. I think most people in the country realised that, particularly after the detail of the WA (including the need for the EU to agree to us exiting it) became public.

If BoJo makes a determined effort to Brexit, it will no longer be parliament rejecting May's WA, but the opposition in parliament effectively rejecting the result of the referendum. That is dangerous ground indeed. Even my Remain supporting friends agree we should leave the EU.

It also risks BoJo going to the country with clear evidence that the opposition parties are trying to thwart the result of the referendum. If he fights a single issue GE (in alliance with TBP) I suspect he'll win it. That's because a game of electoral musical chairs will result. Tory voters that defected to TBP because of the lack of Brexit will partially return to them. And Brexit supporting Labour voters (who could not stomach voting Tory) may defect to TBP. As a result, I think you will see the Tory vote recover, the Labour vote substantially drop, and a BoJo led Tory administration be able to form a coalition with TBP to force Brexit through.

Wordsmith
 
BoJo is clearly going to make a determined effort to leave the EU. I think he realises its going to be a no-deal Brexit. All this talk about trying for an arranged deal is largely for public consumption and to keep the Remain wing of the Tory party on side. He has to be seen to be making a genuine and sustained effort to get a deal. If the EU say its May's WA or no deal, BoJo can then say "I tried to get a deal", before going for a no deal Brexit.

It will also be a game changer for parliament, although most people haven't recognised it yet. Before, parliament was rejecting a deeply flawed WA. I think most people in the country realised that, particularly after the detail of the WA (including the need for the EU to agree to us exiting it) became public.

If BoJo makes a determined effort to Brexit, it will no longer be parliament rejecting May's WA, but the opposition in parliament effectively rejecting the result of the referendum. That is dangerous ground indeed. Even my Remain supporting friends agree we should leave the EU.

It also risks BoJo going to the country with clear evidence that the opposition parties are trying to thwart the result of the referendum. If he fights a single issue GE (in alliance with TBP) I suspect he'll win it. That's because a game of electoral musical chairs will result. Tory voters that defected to TBP because of the lack of Brexit will partially return to them. And Brexit supporting Labour voters (who could not stomach voting Tory) may defect to TBP. As a result, I think you will see the Tory vote recover, the Labour vote substantially drop, and a BoJo led Tory administration be able to form a coalition with TBP to force Brexit through.

Wordsmith
Totally agree.
Carolyn Flints interview with Andrew Marr was a bit of a revelation and clearly shows one hand hasn't a clue what the other is doing in the Labour party.
As to who we want we are left with the BJ, Hunt choice we can't put any of the others back in the pack and its now in the Associations hands. The dirty tricks departments of all disparate groups are at play including dare I say it certain elements of the media. BJ from a point of strength is floundering but in my humble opinion is the only one who can push this through.
As you have said should the MPs object and go to the Country it is highly likely that the result will horrify them. TBP will I am sure do very well, and many of the gobby antis will find themselves looking for work in local government and anxi NGOs and pressure groups.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Given you a like for (2). Boris is 'Box office', he can win. Hunt is dull and can't.
The British public like a 'lovable rogue' - and tend to detest sanctimonious, lie through their teeth politicians. BoJo has his flaws, but he also has a personality. Which is why he is quite popular as a politician (although detested by a vocal minority).

Another such flawed hero was Nelson, taken to their hearts by the British public. Away from battle, he was vainglorious, a hypochondriac, boastful and took a mistress that made him the delight of cartoonists. In contrast, in the professional sphere he proved himself the greatest admiral of any age. Yet it was his foibles and failings that made him beloved of the public as much as his victories.

Pulteney Malcolm, an Admiral who knew both Nelson and Wellington well, was asked what the difference between the two of them was. He memorably replied "Wellington is a man to admire, but Nelson was the man to love".

Thus, on a smaller scale, with BoJo. He has the 'X' factor, that unknown something that makes a lot of the public smile and regard him with wry affection. Hunt is a colourless drone by comparison.

Given a following wind, BoJo can win a GE; Hunt clacks the charisma to do so.

Wordsmith
 
The British public like a 'lovable rogue' - and tend to detest sanctimonious, lie through their teeth politicians. BoJo has his flaws, but he also has a personality. Which is why he is quite popular as a politician (although detested by a vocal minority).

Another such flawed hero was Nelson, taken to their hearts by the British public. Away from battle, he was vainglorious, a hypochondriac, boastful and took a mistress that made him the delight of cartoonists. In contrast, in the professional sphere he proved himself the greatest admiral of any age. Yet it was his foibles and failings that made him beloved of the public as much as his victories.

Pulteney Malcolm, an Admiral who knew both Nelson and Wellington well, was asked what the difference between the two of them was. He memorably replied "Wellington is a man to admire, but Nelson was the man to love".

Thus, on a smaller scale, with BoJo. He has the 'X' factor, that unknown something that makes a lot of the public smile and regard him with wry affection. Hunt is a colourless drone by comparison.

Given a following wind, BoJo can win a GE; Hunt clacks the charisma to do so.

Wordsmith
Again good summary. BJ is a man for the moment, he needs pressure and deadlines if he is allowed to float and become bored he is dangerous. There is a bit of Churchill about him, hopefully Brexit will be his finest hour!
 
Again good summary. BJ is a man for the moment, he needs pressure and deadlines if he is allowed to float and become bored he is dangerous. There is a bit of Churchill about him, hopefully Brexit will be his finest hour!
Your reply and @wordsmiths post summarise the whole thing quite nicely for me.

Boris is the first person I have seen who shows as having any sign of the leadership qualities this country so desperately needs. We have had 30 years of second rate administrators and social engineers at the helm and they have between them royally fcuked up this country. It desperately needs a character with Churchillian like qualities and that is none of the second and third rate w@nkers that have put their heads above the parapet thus far.

Without that leadership the Tories and country haven’t got a hope. It’s still doubtful I will ever vote Tory again, but the commentators are right - Johnson is their only hope
 

Gout Man

LE
Book Reviewer
So you don't want Brexit?
Yes but I think Johnson is a bluffing clown.
Did you hear him on LBC? He’s bluffing his way through this and refuses to answer any questions concerning how he is going to get us out on 31st Oct.
Ask yourself this, would you by a car from him? Actually I think he’d make a damn good second hand car salesman but not a PM.
Raab was my first choice but as he got voted out I honestly would prefer Hunt to Johnson.
 
Yes but I think Johnson is a bluffing clown.
Did you hear him on LBC? He’s bluffing his way through this and refuses to answer any questions concerning how he is going to get us out on 31st Oct.
Ask yourself this, would you by a car from him? Actually I think he’d make a damn good second hand car salesman but not a PM.
Raab was my first choice but as he got voted out I honestly would prefer Hunt to Johnson.
....so no, you don't want Brexit.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Yes but I think Johnson is a bluffing clown.
Did you hear him on LBC? He’s bluffing his way through this and refuses to answer any questions concerning how he is going to get us out on 31st Oct.
  1. Almost certainly without a deal.
  2. He can't publicly say that because of the howls of outrage that will head his direction.
  3. So he'll maintain the fiction he can negotiate a deal with the EU.
  4. And then he'll prorogue parliament and let nature take its course on 31st October.
Simples.

Wordsmith
 
It could be worse. If Johnson gets his nuts done to avoid any more embarrassing bastards then the third world muppets that we have to deal with might think less of us because our leader has no balls.

(Yes, I know that that isn't how it happens, but we are not talking about rational, civilised people here.)
Hilter did OK though
 
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