Tory 2020 manifesto considerations:Scrap 0.7% FA,create 3% security pledge.

If there's one thing the PM has royally fucked up on it is not going firm on scrapping the Overseas Aid scam. Her continued support of it will cost her votes in my view.

Yes. That annoys me too. We paid UmboBungoland to have their version of the Spice Girls and yet we have our own people having to use food banks. I'm certain the food bank users were all for it too.

Clearly there has to be a slush fund for exports but £13bn!
 
I don't think anything I'm asking how you quantify military impact. Quantify means produce numbers and units for those numbers. As an example I can quantify munition penetration in part by calculating mv2, measured in kg.m2.s-2, for a projectile. I'm just asking how you quantify military effect.

You can quantify military effect. On HERRICK 12 the statistics guys from DSTL calculated the different likelihoods of death from IDF within Bastion, both lying down, standing up, and within Tier 1 or Tier 2 accn. You can apply that model to anything.

If I go back to my example, using a model of time (to go around a farmer's field), increased likelihood of IED, cost of CASEVAC, wages, aircraft time, maintenance, time on the ground etc etc, versus 'go through farmers field and chuck him a day's wage as damages' or 'build his village aschool' - I reckon the cheapest is to crack on and drive through his field.

Now seriously though, I detect from you talk about quantify and blah and challenging people, that you are a soft power fan or advocate. So, from your experience or knowledge, please give us an example of where soft power was more effective.
 
You can quantify military effect. On HERRICK 12 the statistics guys from DSTL calculated the different likelihoods of death from IDF within Bastion, both lying down, standing up, and within Tier 1 or Tier 2 accn. You can apply that model to anything.

If I go back to my example, using a model of time (to go around a farmer's field), increased likelihood of IED, cost of CASEVAC, wages, aircraft time, maintenance, time on the ground etc etc, versus 'go through farmers field and chuck him a day's wage as damages' or 'build his village aschool' - I reckon the cheapest is to crack on and drive through his field.

Now seriously though, I detect from you talk about quantify and blah and challenging people, that you are a soft power fan or advocate. So, from your experience or knowledge, please give us an example of where soft power was more effective.

The Cold War.
 
And you quantify these using what units on what scale.
Most of it is subjective and SME opinion. And politics. Metrics of this type of operation isn't easy and the one thing required is time - which the politicians won't sign up to. Body count is irrelevant and indeed counter-productive.
 
You can quantify military effect. On HERRICK 12 the statistics guys from DSTL calculated the different likelihoods of death from IDF within Bastion, both lying down, standing up, and within Tier 1 or Tier 2 accn. You can apply that model to anything.
Firstly this isn’t military effect it’s military risk. So he analysed what had happened, did the data demonstrate robustness, i.e. did it apply [was accurate at predicting] after he left, or to other situations, etc. or was it just a statistic collection exercise.
If I go back to my example, using a model of time (to go around a farmer's field), increased likelihood of IED, cost of CASEVAC, wages, aircraft time, maintenance, time on the ground etc etc, versus 'go through farmers field and chuck him a day's wage as damages' or 'build his village a school' - I reckon the cheapest is to crack on and drive through his field.
You reckon, but has anyone done the analysis to show this otherwise we’re not talking quantification we’re talking your guess/prejudice.
I detect from your talk about quantify and blah and challenging people, that you are a soft power fan or advocate. So, from your experience or knowledge, please give us an example of where soft power was more effective.
No you misunderstand; I’m simply engaged in Socratic inquiry, wherein you explain in more detail what you mean by your assertion in an attempt to show me you are correct. So I'm simply asking you to justify your idea that military effect can be quantified. So far I’m unconvinced. Whether soft power can be quantified and the results thus compared with military power in a quantifiable manner I leave to others to claim if they wish, and if they do I will ask tem the same questions.
 
Would that be the Cold War that bankrupted the Soviet Union by the deployment of a vast range of forces on the NATO side plus Cruise Missiles and the Pershing 2 system which forced the Soviet Union to sign up to the INF treaty?
but is that a military or an economic effect.
 
No you misunderstand; I’m simply engaged in Socratic inquiry

No you misunderstand, I'm not interested in that methodology, you're not some sort of sensei and haven't come up with any hard fact (or evidence that you are sat on some as yet undisclosed) that makes it worth indulging you in that fashion. If you have a counter opinion, back it up and debate it, don't just ask endless questions based on semantics and pedantry.
 
No you misunderstand, I'm not interested in that methodology, you're not some sort of sensei and haven't come up with any hard fact (or evidence that you are sat on some as yet undisclosed) that makes it worth indulging you in that fashion. If you have a counter opinion, back it up and debate it, don't just ask endless questions based on semantics and pedantry.
I don't need a counter opinion; you claim that military effect can be quantified, you have yet to back that up and since I suspect you know you can't are trying to create a different argument to avoid admitting your failure.
 
Oh really? There's a thing you may have heard of called the estimate process, there's a task to be achieved and clever staff wallahs work out what is needed. They attribute speed, distance, time, consumption of fuel, rates of fire, weapon ranges.

Is that not quantifiable metrics? Is the desired end state, or something done in order to achieve it, not military effect?

Fire one round of 105mm. It goes x far, has a danger zone y across and costs z pounds. Quantifiable? Military effect?

You could tell me what your definition of military effect is and source it, thus showing why its not quantifiable? Or give me an example of of where soft power was more effective. Or, do what your doing, which appears to be the internet equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and saying 'you're wrong I'm right na na na'.
 
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