Tories Lose Another MP

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Sven, Mar 13, 2008.

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  1. Bob Spink MP has resigned from the Tory party - or might have had the whip withdrawn.

    His constituency party (that is, back home at Castle Point) apparently wanted to de-select Him and Spink thought that He was getting short shrift from both them and the parliamentary party.

    He seems to e a decent constituency MP, according to 'They Work For You', so why was His local party giving Him the push?

  2. I believe that it was a 'domestic' matter and that he did not live up to the pure and wholesome image of todays Conservatives.
  3. Is He going to split the Tory vote, given that He is intending to run as an independent? He got 48% of the vote last time, hat will the new guy get?
  4. Auld-Yin

    Auld-Yin LE Reviewer Book Reviewer Reviews Editor

    Is he a diety and held in such reverence that you have to use 'He'? Don't know the chap but I would rather doubt it.
  5. Since i think that he lost the Whip by splitting his zipper then I suppose it will depend upon how much time he can spend 'in among his public'.
  6. He had an affair with the wife of the head of his constituency association, who along with the association proved not to be forgiving.

    He was an idiot who should have seen it coming.
  7. Thanks, I had forgotten the details but doorstep and s*** came to mind.
  8. And I suspect that 'his public' may not be sympathetic, either. He employs his ex-wife as his PA, their daughter and the daughter of his ex-mistress at the taxpayers' expense, even though his ex-wife lives miles away from the constituency and miles away from Spink (raising questions about how effective she can be).

    I think he's already run into trouble with Tory Central Office for comments about the overwhelming majority of criminals being black, so I suspect that Cameron will be glad to see the back of him. Looking at the results for 2005 - yes, that's displacement activity for you - if (a considerable 'if', of course) voting patterns followed those of the last election, he'd need to take almost 40% of the Tory vote to allow the Labour candidate in. Probably far better for him to join UKIP, stand at the next European elections and join the Euro parliament gravy train...
  9. My point about His standing was that by splitting the vote He might let in the opposition. There needs to be a swing of roughly 4,500 for Labour to get in.

    Will 4,500 Tory voters vote for Spink?
  10. My bold.

    If the Zanu Labour vote doesn't evaporate at the next election I'll be amazed. Along with the Lib-Dem vote. And quite possibly the Tory one too if they don't stand for something more than just a different coloured tie.

    edited for wrong bolding.
  11. Sven - the 4,500 swing only works if the voters all go to the Labour candidate. If Spink takes 4,500 out of the Tory vote probably getting 4th place as a result, it reduces the majority for the Tories to over 3,500, but they retain the seat. The question is whether over 8,000 Conservative voters will cast their ballot in favour of Spink, allowing the Labour candidate to get past him - and given the recent revelations, it'd be an achievement if he managed to do that.

    Anyway, that's all conditional on voting going the same way as it did in 2005, and as we both know, that is a fairly big 'if' .
  12. You are quite right about about the figures, I had made the mistake of giving them all to labour.