Tin hat session:Climate change, peak oil and world war 3

Discussion in 'The Intelligence Cell' started by Olympius, Sep 10, 2009.

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  1. Tin hat session: food for thought whatever. Discuss :?

    With the Chinese and Indians are expected to become the worlds biggest oil users in the coming years putting ever more pressure on both climate change and the probability that we have reached "peak oil" I believe we'll see World War 3 come about as a last ditch scramble for the worlds resources.

    Another reason why industrial agriculture has had its day, even without climate change, is that it is far too vulnerable to increases in the price of oil; and more so, to shortages in the availability of this fuel.

    If three million people starved to death in North Korea in the last few years, it was partly the result of the collapse of the Russian market which absorbed most of its exports, so it could no longer afford to import the vast amount of oil on which its highly mechanised, Soviet inspired, agricultural system had become so totally dependent. Its ‘farmers’ had simply forgotten how to wield a hoe or push a wheelbarrow.

    The UK could have been in a similar plight if the transport strike of 2000 had lasted a few more weeks. In an industrial society, oil is required to transport essential food imports, to build and operate tractors, to produce and use fertilisers and pesticides and process, package and transport food to the supermarkets - a more vulnerable situation is difficult to imagine at the best of times - but it is suicidal today.

    It is not just temporary oil shortages associated with temporary jumps in the price of oil that we are destined to face but the steady decline in the availability of this commodity. Consequently, oil is due to become increasingly expensive. The truth is that worldwide oil production will peak within the next four to ten years. Oil discoveries have been very disappointing and much of the oil we are using today was discovered some forty years or so ago. The Caspian Sea area which many people in the oil business expected to contain as much as 200 billion barrels of oil; but according to Colin Campbell [15], one of the world’s leading authorities on the oil industry, it is more likely to contain as little as 25 billion barrels and no more than 40 or 50 billion. The world uses 20 billion barrels a year and consumption is increasing at an alarming rate.

    Although the US has tried desperately to reduce its dependence on the Middle East and succeeded in doing to a certain extent, alternative sources of oil are drying up more quickly than expected. Iran for instance is unlikely to produce more oil than it requires for its own use in ten or fifteen years. Indeed, in the next twenty years the US will have become more dependent on the Middle East than it is today as oil production of countries like Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Mexico also begin to fall. This explains why the US oil industry, which is now in effect the government of the USA, is so fanatically determined to conquer Iraq. Iraq has 11% of world known reserves, of which only a fraction is exploited, and whose oil is the cheapest in the world. The economic consequences of the coming world oil crisis cannot be over-estimated.


    As countries we have previously relied on for a good deal of our farming (Kenya for instance) as the soil has eroded and depleted they are providing less food than what we have grown accustomed to. To top this off Kenya in recent years has been hit by savage droughts and floods and they have began to yield a lot less than we were used to. Scientists think due to climate change by 2050 half the world could be "unfarmable".

    Anyway, the worlds running out of resources, places to farm and oil and are population is set to boom bigger than most 1st world countries can cope with. Who will strike first: Go!

    I put my money on the muslim world eventually attacking Israel until it feels it needs to retaliate with the "Samson Option". The USA will obviously seize on this given it's ties to Israel and chance to nuke a few countries into submission all the while obtaining oil, and because of these acts no doubt NATO and Russia will get involved.

    Comments, thoughts and other predictions? Yes I know this is a tin hat session so it's not meant to be taken completely seriously.
  2. Shame nobody had thought up renewables 30 years ago, or we could have avoided the whole mess. :roll:

    BRIC nations are guzzling oil at a far higher rate mainly because their power generation and manufacturing industries are horrendously inefficient users compared to the current level of technology in the developed world. They are catching up fast and certainly China is making a play to be the world leader in renewable technology within the decade. The scale of development in Neimongol - wind and solar - is vast.

    We could make the oil last longer all round by letting BRIC have access to our more efficient technology, but that would get in the way of market forces and we can't have that, can we?
  3. Well look on the bright side, with no oil to fuel the tanks and nuclear weapons it will be a very short war...

    Depending on how oil prices go this will become a political hot potato within 10-20 years(some say sooner) as there are several different camps and the scenario played out above is a far right wet dream. Such a war could lead to civil war within countries with diverse populations which are unable to support themselves. Head over to the BNP site they have a whole section on peak oil and are probably stashing guns under their beds right now...

    My brother in law is really into this topic and bores me to death quite a bit when he gets a chance to talk about it.

    Worst case scenario is this;

    1) Peak oil hits sooner, oil prices rise drastically.
    2) Population increases and intensive farming to support them pushes water demands.
    3) Global warming really does happen the way some say and lots of low lying fertile land is polluted with sea water.

    The thing is does even that really have to mean all out global war? In theory the technology to deal with all of the above is either already here or in the early stages of development.

    1) Nuclear power plants.
    2) Desalination plants.
    3) Newer farming methods and GM crops which can grow where current crops cannot.

    We have already seen that WW3 can be avoided when people know certain death is around the corner so all is not lost. Strong leadership, sound investments into new technology and a powerful RN should see the UK through... bollocks, we're all going to die!
  4. I work in the oil industry and on my last job heard something interesting from an "Old and bold". He told me he had a conversation with an american oilman on a job in the North Sea. He said "They will never let you know how much oil there is out there, if they did, they could'nt justify the prices. Back in the day they said that North Sea oil would'nt last long, 20 years max!! Its coming on nearly 40 years and theres still a big puddle of black stuff out there.
    We will suck the middle east dry. I'm sure theres places out there that the oil companys know have big reservoirs but aint gonna tap into them as that will bring the prices down. So why not suck the arabs dry and tap into there own when the time is right. Its all about profit for the big company's. The government dont mind how high the prices go as they get a big chunk of change from fuel tax. While we are on the subject of tax, we are gonna get stung for carbon, climate........tax!!!! What a load of bollocks!!!! For years we have been shown footage of the icebergs melting in cold places but where exactly is the sea level changing? Last year we had a draught, they called it climate change! This year it pissed down, they called it climate change. Every year the river Ganges busts its banks in the delta of Bangladesh casing severe flooding(caused by the ice melts in the Himalayas) and has done for probably a thousand years. What do you see on the BBC the other night? A bbc reporter in there with the locals spouting on about climate change again, what a load of bollocks!!!!!! Rant over
  5. Cow

    Cow LE

    I've got a double thickness foil hat. I really believe that we're going to be stuffed in a few years (quite a few) and we'll be back to horses and the old ways of farming. I've even suggested moving to the country side to the misses rather than the big city as I can see the quality of life going down as prices of food and petrol/oil increase.

    All the old skills that people had, the stuff we laugh at as 'arts and crafts' and such will suddenly be in demand, natural materials will be at a premium and the manufacture of luxury goods severly limited.

    Misses thinks I'm going crazy, I agree but chuckle to myself inside.. one day I'll be right..
  6. Pity Olympus you have not let us know Your views on this matter.
    Future wars will be over water, oil is just a transitory problem.
    China v India could get rough where I live.
  7. A huge new oilfield has been confirmed in Mexico within the last few days and also one in Iran.
  8. Oompa. Well said that man.
    Bunch of tree hugging hippy cr@p.
    Renewables are a bunch of expensive toss.
    Every time someone says no to an incinerator in your district, punch the cnut in the throat as he is doing you out of free juice, upping your rates and offsetting a bigger problem re methane from landfill and depending on your area costing a fortune shipping waste out of the district.
    As for lack of fuel and food. Cut down a tree, eat the squirrel that falls out. Job jobbed.
  9. NYT Article

    Just some of the hoops facing the west as they try to reconcile domestic agendas with strategic needs.
  10. There is no imminent oil shortage.
    We have ample reserves for decades, more than enough time to develop alternatives that actually work.
    The only real problem the world faces is over population and that has ways of sorting itself out.
  11. seaweed

    seaweed LE Book Reviewer

    2bn barrels of oil off Brazil in yesterday's news.
  12. [quote="B_G_L]
    ... and the scenario played out above is a far right wet dream. Such a war could lead to civil war within countries with diverse populations which are unable to support themselves. [/quote]

    I'm a fairly open minded person and I only thought of that scenario as the cold war with Russia has been dead with only a half ars'ed remark every now again about pointing missiles at European cities. The truth is the Russians know that their country is going to be a world power fairly soon....as it has so much land and resources the Russians would be stupid to risk a war when they can simply wait then charge the West horrendous prices.

    The chinese and indians are set to become a world power too so unless China was to invade Taiwan or India was finally to invade Pakistan I doubt they'd kick off.

    My theory wasn't a right wing wet dream...just realistically what I expect to happen. Israel is surrounded by muslim countries that believe Israel shouldn't even exist and they've been murmuring for years about nuking Israel and those murmurs have been getting louder in the last 10 years.

    Interesting point about peak oil though. I'm a bit skeptical as Iraq is obviously about oil so would a 6 year war really be worth invading if oil was plentiful!!???

    who knows :)
  13. There is enough oil in Antartica to last us well into the 22nd centure shhh you didnt hear that from me.
  14. something I read on here said 500 years of oil
  15. I stand to be corrected but at current consumption (pre-recession) there are known oil reserves to last 75 years. Thats before the Gulf of Mexico field discovered by BP a month or so ago.
    That is just known and proven reserves. Thats 3 times the reserves we knew about 20 years ago (remember when we were told we would have run out by the turn of the 20th century?)

    I know a mud analyst type working in the North Sea, no shortage of oil off our own shores if she is to be believed.

    There is no shortage of oil. We are not going to run out in the foreseable future.