Tin hat session: food for thought whatever. Discuss With the Chinese and Indians are expected to become the worlds biggest oil users in the coming years putting ever more pressure on both climate change and the probability that we have reached "peak oil" I believe we'll see World War 3 come about as a last ditch scramble for the worlds resources. Another reason why industrial agriculture has had its day, even without climate change, is that it is far too vulnerable to increases in the price of oil; and more so, to shortages in the availability of this fuel. If three million people starved to death in North Korea in the last few years, it was partly the result of the collapse of the Russian market which absorbed most of its exports, so it could no longer afford to import the vast amount of oil on which its highly mechanised, Soviet inspired, agricultural system had become so totally dependent. Its âfarmersâ had simply forgotten how to wield a hoe or push a wheelbarrow. The UK could have been in a similar plight if the transport strike of 2000 had lasted a few more weeks. In an industrial society, oil is required to transport essential food imports, to build and operate tractors, to produce and use fertilisers and pesticides and process, package and transport food to the supermarkets - a more vulnerable situation is difficult to imagine at the best of times - but it is suicidal today. It is not just temporary oil shortages associated with temporary jumps in the price of oil that we are destined to face but the steady decline in the availability of this commodity. Consequently, oil is due to become increasingly expensive. The truth is that worldwide oil production will peak within the next four to ten years. Oil discoveries have been very disappointing and much of the oil we are using today was discovered some forty years or so ago. The Caspian Sea area which many people in the oil business expected to contain as much as 200 billion barrels of oil; but according to Colin Campbell , one of the worldâs leading authorities on the oil industry, it is more likely to contain as little as 25 billion barrels and no more than 40 or 50 billion. The world uses 20 billion barrels a year and consumption is increasing at an alarming rate. Although the US has tried desperately to reduce its dependence on the Middle East and succeeded in doing to a certain extent, alternative sources of oil are drying up more quickly than expected. Iran for instance is unlikely to produce more oil than it requires for its own use in ten or fifteen years. Indeed, in the next twenty years the US will have become more dependent on the Middle East than it is today as oil production of countries like Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Mexico also begin to fall. This explains why the US oil industry, which is now in effect the government of the USA, is so fanatically determined to conquer Iraq. Iraq has 11% of world known reserves, of which only a fraction is exploited, and whose oil is the cheapest in the world. The economic consequences of the coming world oil crisis cannot be over-estimated. http://www.i-sis.org.uk/FTWUCC.php As countries we have previously relied on for a good deal of our farming (Kenya for instance) as the soil has eroded and depleted they are providing less food than what we have grown accustomed to. To top this off Kenya in recent years has been hit by savage droughts and floods and they have began to yield a lot less than we were used to. Scientists think due to climate change by 2050 half the world could be "unfarmable". Anyway, the worlds running out of resources, places to farm and oil and are population is set to boom bigger than most 1st world countries can cope with. Who will strike first: Go! I put my money on the muslim world eventually attacking Israel until it feels it needs to retaliate with the "Samson Option". The USA will obviously seize on this given it's ties to Israel and chance to nuke a few countries into submission all the while obtaining oil, and because of these acts no doubt NATO and Russia will get involved. Comments, thoughts and other predictions? Yes I know this is a tin hat session so it's not meant to be taken completely seriously.