Three Pillars of Wisdom

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by tomahawk6, Feb 3, 2006.

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  1. http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson200602030807.asp

    Victor Davis Hanson article that I think strikes at the heart of the issue of peace in the middle east - oil dependency. If the west makes a determined effort to eliminate the need for middle east oil then we all will sleep better at night. Hanson is right that there is alot of other things going on in the world but we are focused on the middle east.
     
  2. The idea of "oil Dependency" is an intersting one.

    Yes the supply and price of oil is governed heavily by a few middle eastern countries and therefore the West could be considered "dependent" upon their continued good grace of selling it to them.

    However those same countries are massively dependent on selling the stuff, Saudi Arabia gains 75% of budget revenues, 45% of GDP, and 90% of export earnings from the oil business. They simply can't afford not to export their oil for even a month. In the game of oil revenue chicken who would blink first?

    Proportionally the middle east will hold greater and greater sway over the petro market as other sources dry up - this seeming position of strength however will be weakened as the reserves are obviously finite. If the big oil economies play hard ball from their position of strength what will be the consequences when that position is eroded when the oil runs out. The big (and diversified) economies that you held ransom a few years earlier will be happy to see you wallow in your quasi tribal goat f ucking pit as the money runs out and you can't pay to buy your food (as you live in a desert and grow feck all) and TVs (as you have no need of a domestic manufacturing base as you've been balancing your balance of payments with petro dollars)

    It's no surprise that all round the developed world the nuclear power plans are getting dusted off. It is to further balance the negotiating positions ahead of the crisis that will come.
     
  3. Very insightful post, LostBoss. That's exactly how I see it too - only you put it much better than I ever could.:)

    MsG
     
  4. Also, the quality of brain available to the major oil coys is far superior to the goat-bargaining brains of the producers.