Things hotting up with Turkey

Well it seems like Erdogan is trying to play the US off against Russia again. But America is not going to intervene on the Turk's behalf and Russia knows it. So they will tee off against the Turks in Syria with relative impunity as long as they don't target our forces or proxies.
So long as Trump ignores the calls from some of his supporters:

“The world is sitting on its hands and watching the destruction of Idlib by Assad, Iran, and the Russians,” Graham, a Republican and an ally of Trump, said in a statement. “I am confident if the world, led by the United States, pushed back against Iran, Russia, and Assad that they would stand down, paving the way for political negotiations to end this war in Syria.”

Kay Bailey Hutchison, U.S. Ambassador to NATO:

“I hope President Erdogan will see that we are the ally of their past and their future, she said. “They see what Russia is, they see what they’re doing now,” she told reporters in a briefing. She repeated Washington’s call on Ankara to walk away from the purchase of the Russian missile defense system.
So far the US has just said some encouraging words:

“We stand by our NATO ally Turkey and continue to call for an immediate end to this despicable offensive by the Assad regime, Russia, and Iranian-backed forces,” a State Department representative said in a statement.
.............
In Washington, the Pentagon said U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper spoke to his Turkish counterpart on Thursday and they discussed Idlib and Libya.

“We are exploring ways the United States can work together with Turkey and the international community,” the Pentagon said of the call.
 
So long as Trump ignores the calls from some of his supporters:

“The world is sitting on its hands and watching the destruction of Idlib by Assad, Iran, and the Russians,” Graham, a Republican and an ally of Trump, said in a statement. “I am confident if the world, led by the United States, pushed back against Iran, Russia, and Assad that they would stand down, paving the way for political negotiations to end this war in Syria.”

Kay Bailey Hutchison, U.S. Ambassador to NATO:

“I hope President Erdogan will see that we are the ally of their past and their future, she said. “They see what Russia is, they see what they’re doing now,” she told reporters in a briefing. She repeated Washington’s call on Ankara to walk away from the purchase of the Russian missile defense system.
So far the US has just said some encouraging words:

“We stand by our NATO ally Turkey and continue to call for an immediate end to this despicable offensive by the Assad regime, Russia, and Iranian-backed forces,” a State Department representative said in a statement.
.............
In Washington, the Pentagon said U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper spoke to his Turkish counterpart on Thursday and they discussed Idlib and Libya.

“We are exploring ways the United States can work together with Turkey and the international community,” the Pentagon said of the call.
I can't see 'The Donald' getting entangled in the Syrian qaugmire with an election in November.
 
I can't see 'The Donald' getting entangled in the Syrian qaugmire with an election in November.
Neither can I, particularly as this latest and the last (coalition troops withdrawing from NE Syria), were both at Erdogan’s insistence.
 
Despite more Turkish troops killed Erdogan is talking about victory???
“The situation in Idlib has turned in our favour.” says Archduke Erdogan

The scenario was primed for a direct and serious contact between Turkey and Russia and it is happening right now.

Erdogan will now be appealing for US and NATO assistance, despite the fact that both had requested Turkey not to go in, or do what they went ahead and did. Now the situation is seriously biting them on the ass, and can only get worse.

Gone from reluctant ally to being a positive and dangerous liability.
 
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The way the ongoing escalation is playing out, and given the egos involved, this can only end in direct Russian-Turkish combat, rather than 'collateral damage' accidents.

'Turkey has neutralized 309 Syrian regime troops in ongoing operations in Idlib, said Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar on Friday.'

 
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So long as Trump ignores the calls from some of his supporters:

“The world is sitting on its hands and watching the destruction of Idlib by Assad, Iran, and the Russians,” Graham, a Republican and an ally of Trump, said in a statement. “I am confident if the world, led by the United States, pushed back against Iran, Russia, and Assad that they would stand down, paving the way for political negotiations to end this war in Syria.”

Kay Bailey Hutchison, U.S. Ambassador to NATO:

“I hope President Erdogan will see that we are the ally of their past and their future, she said. “They see what Russia is, they see what they’re doing now,” she told reporters in a briefing. She repeated Washington’s call on Ankara to walk away from the purchase of the Russian missile defense system.
So far the US has just said some encouraging words:

“We stand by our NATO ally Turkey and continue to call for an immediate end to this despicable offensive by the Assad regime, Russia, and Iranian-backed forces,” a State Department representative said in a statement.
.............
In Washington, the Pentagon said U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper spoke to his Turkish counterpart on Thursday and they discussed Idlib and Libya.

“We are exploring ways the United States can work together with Turkey and the international community,” the Pentagon said of the call.
Election year, and the Corona virus. Joe public ain’t interested in helping the Turks out. Unless Edrogen goes, they will just use us to save there A$$es and then back on the roller coaster.
 
The way the ongoing escalation is playing out, and given the egos involved, this can only end in direct Russian-Turkish combat, rather than 'collateral damage' accidents.

'Turkey has neutralized 309 Syrian regime troops in ongoing operations in Idlib, said Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar on Friday.'

But if Russia is sucked into a tiff with the Turks, they won’t be worried about Eastern Europe. These adventures are expensive.
 
If only Hilary had been voted in, she'd have put loadsa US boots on the ground, and we'd have been queuing up behind ya to fight and free them there Syrians........thank G_d she wasn't.
Now to get the Don to say eff off to Turkey and gtfo of dodge.
 
But if Russia is sucked into a tiff with the Turks, they won’t be worried about Eastern Europe. These adventures are expensive.
Meanwhile, the Rusians gain a reputation for supporting an ally, expand both hard and soft influence in the region, and leave fretting about the Baltics to the EU?
It's win/ win for NATO: fewer problems on the eastern front, main opposition concentrating elsewhere, and an Islamist Turkey put back in its box.
For the EU, it's potentially a mega problem: coronavirus plus mass, uncontrolled, migration do not make happy bedfellows.
 
If only Hilary had been voted in, she'd have put loadsa US boots on the ground, and we'd have been queuing up behind ya to fight and free them there Syrians........thank G_d she wasn't.
Now to get the Don to say eff off to Turkey and gtfo of dodge.
I don’t think our government’s are really going to see eye to eye anymore. I very much doubt the UK is going to coalition with the US in the future.
 
Meanwhile, the Rusians gain a reputation for supporting an ally, expand both hard and soft influence in the region, and leave fretting about the Baltics to the EU?
It's win/ win for NATO: fewer problems on the eastern front, main opposition concentrating elsewhere, and an Islamist Turkey put back in its box.
For the EU, it's potentially a mega problem: coronavirus plus mass, uncontrolled, migration do not make happy bedfellows.
Well the EU will have to deal with it. They can secure their own borders or absorb more refugees.
 
It's win/ win for NATO: fewer problems on the eastern front, main opposition concentrating elsewhere, and an Islamist Turkey put back in its box.
For the EU, it's potentially a mega problem: coronavirus plus mass, uncontrolled, migration do not make happy bedfellows.
And given that 20 of those NATO members are also members of the EU, and their populations are generally more interested in political/security rather than defence issues...
 
I don’t think our government’s are really going to see eye to eye anymore. I very much doubt the UK is going to coalition with the US in the future.
As always, that's down to shared " interests", not any particular politician or party.
If invading wherethefuckistan is in our mutual interests, expect a willing ally. If it isn't, expect the nays to have it.
 
The difference is in ability and will: when NATO decides to do something it usually gets on and does it. The EU?
Consensus organisations, and the same politicians in 20 of those countries either agreeing, or agreeing not to agree, whether to do anything beyond a strongly worded tweet.
 
As always, that's down to shared " interests", not any particular politician or party.
If invading wherethefuckistan is in our mutual interests, expect a willing ally. If it isn't, expect the nays to have it.
I just don’t see those interests overlapping much anymore on that side of the pond.
 
Meanwhile, the Rusians gain a reputation for supporting an ally, expand both hard and soft influence in the region, and leave fretting about the Baltics to the EU?
It's win/ win for NATO: fewer problems on the eastern front, main opposition concentrating elsewhere, and an Islamist Turkey put back in its box.
For the EU, it's potentially a mega problem: coronavirus plus mass, uncontrolled, migration do not make happy bedfellows.
win/win ? If it goes pear shaped and NATO does not comply with the different articles what do you think Erdogan will do with those 3 1/2 million refugees?
 
win/win ? If it goes pear shaped and NATO does not comply with the different articles what do you think Erdogan will do with those 3 1/2 million refugees?
Unless there is a Russian attack on Turkish soil, there is no Article 5 precedent. Turkey has invoked Article 4 talks, despite what RT has falsely reported.

Article 4
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

 

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