Things hotting up with Turkey

Its a perverse twist, that Assad probably is the only player who is trying to preserve the integrity of Syria. As the myriad of rebel groups if they're had won, would never have re-united the nation together (see Libya for example). The outside players like Turkey or Israel, have ulterior motives which in a nation we frown upon would be seen as bad as saddam.

For once we can thank parliament for growing a backbone and stating clearly we want nothing to do with another failed war.
Personally, I think at the end of all this we will end up with a rump Syria, with Russia as guarantor, a Kurdish protectorate guaranteed by the US and an Islamist protectorate guaranteed by Turkey.

Sadly, we probably need to completely drain the swamp of combat power on all sides before the parties will accept the gains and losses of territory that will be necessary - as occurred in Bosnia.

Indeed, the more fighters the warring parties lose, the more quickly that settlement will come.
 
Personally, I think at the end of all this we will end up with a rump Syria, with Russia as guarantor, a Kurdish protectorate guaranteed by the US and an Islamist protectorate guaranteed by Turkey.

Sadly, we probably need to completely drain the swamp of combat power on all sides before the parties will accept the gains and losses of territory that will be necessary - as occurred in Bosnia.

Indeed, the more fighters the warring parties lose, the more quickly that settlement will come.
I'm not sure that the current government in the US would be willing to take on the burden of being responsible for any sort of Kurdish protectorate. The optics of bailing out of Afghanistan only to then make a permanent commitment to Kurdistan aren't likely to appeal to the current resident of the White House.

However, the threat of Turkey may motivate the Kurds to come to terms with Damascus, if they are offered a reasonable amount of autonomy.

It is quite possible that Turkey will hang onto a slice of north western Syria though, much like Israel has with the Golan Heights.
 

TamH70

MIA
Syria as a military base is really only of much use to the Russians in maintaining their position in Syria in times of overall peace. If a major war kicked off between Russia and NATO then those bases would be isolated from Russia and find themselves very much on the defensive.

As a political and diplomatic statement, Tartous has value, but only a rather limited one. In military terms you will have to excuse me if I am not particularly impressed by the Russian surface fleet outside of the waters immediately around their own shores. Their submarines are another matter, but the Mediterranean is an almost completely enclosed sea with only a few narrow entry and exit points back to Russia for resupply and repair, and the sea is relatively shallow and so there are limited places for a large submarine to hide in and one half of the long narrow sea is bordered by NATO countries.

The political and diplomatic value of Syria to Russia are in showing that they will back their close allies to the hilt, and in giving them a diplomatic entre into issues of the Middle East, which in turn gives them some influence over adjoining regions that matter very much to them, such as the Caucasus and Central Asia.

As for Turkey's direction over the long run, remember that Erdogan is not immortal. One day he will be gone and whomever replaces him may have different ideas about where Turkey's foreign policy interest lie. There is no point in forcing a permanent break with Turkey when we have reason to believe that their long term interests may be closer to our own than to Russia's and they may come around to realising that eventually.
Doesn't having a massive presence in Syria give Russia another de facto warm water port or indeed ports? That's something the Russians have craved for centuries.
 
Doesn't having a massive presence in Syria give Russia another de facto warm water port or indeed ports? That's something the Russians have craved for centuries.
Not really. The talk about Russia and a warm water port is with respect to a port which was ice free year round, connected directly with the open ocean, and which could be reached directly from Russia. A port in Syria is just an overseas port and doesn't provide any better ocean access to Russia itself.

The concept itself is also a lot less significant these days, as unlike the end of the 19th century Russia does not have a large open ocean surface fleet, their nuclear submarines can travel under the ice, and modern icebreakers can readily keep open navigation from many of their warmer ports now.
 

triggerigger

War Hero
A good time to sell ad systems to the turks anything they want in fact so they can fight each other to a standstill. Inshalla. Tiz the will of Dog.
 
We seem to have been demoted from little satan these days with Israel promoted to that spot looking at recent demos in Iran. Perhaps we are just Great Satan's little helpers now.
In Iran the US has since the Revolution been "The Great Satan" and under them is, as you say, "The Little Satan", Israel, but behind the scenes, the cunning puppet-masters controlling both is the same "Old Fox", England, who has been a malevolent influence scheming against Persia's interests for centuries. It is the British who still hold pride of place in the pantheon of villains in the eyes of the Iranians.

It almost gives one a warm, fuzzy feeling knowing that, like the South Sea Islanders who worship Prince Phillip as a god, there is a little corner of the globe where Britain is still Great.
 
In Iran the US has since the Revolution been "The Great Satan" and under them is, as you say, "The Little Satan", Israel, but behind the scenes, the cunning puppet-masters controlling both is the same "Old Fox", England, who has been a malevolent influence scheming against Persia's interests for centuries. It is the British who still hold pride of place in the pantheon of villains in the eyes of the Iranians.

It almost gives one a warm, fuzzy feeling knowing that, like the South Sea Islanders who worship Prince Phillip as a god, there is a little corner of the globe where Britain is still Great.
With good reason.

We treated them like dirt.
 
Reap as ye sow.

Erdogan and the AKP effectively neutered the Turkish Air Force following the abortive coup, which some still say was induced in order to allow a decimation of any opposition. The lack of air cover right now in Syria is proving deadly to Turkey.

Over 300 Turkish pilots most of whom were F-16 were removed most of whom had years of experience. The result: The F-16 to pilot ratio dropped from over 1.25 pilots per aircraft to 0.8.
The Turkish Air Force now faces an acute pilot shortage problem. Fighter pilots are hugely expensive to train and it is a lengthy process.

To try and cope the Turkish government even issued a decree that threatened 330 former pilots with the revocation of their civil pilot license, unless they return to Air Force duty for four years.

Pilot retention is a problem, that under normal circumstances has bothered various other NATO airforces as well as the US who have been unable to help Turkey with this yet another rather drastic self inflicted problem.
 
In Iran the US has since the Revolution been "The Great Satan" and under them is, as you say, "The Little Satan", Israel, but behind the scenes, the cunning puppet-masters controlling both is the same "Old Fox", England, who has been a malevolent influence scheming against Persia's interests for centuries. It is the British who still hold pride of place in the pantheon of villains in the eyes of the Iranians.

It almost gives one a warm, fuzzy feeling knowing that, like the South Sea Islanders who worship Prince Phillip as a god, there is a little corner of the globe where Britain is still Great.
The same goes for common Afghan lore, perfidious Albion is behind every misfortune that befalls Afghanistan - the Beeb did a report on the phenomenon a couple of years ago.

 
We could see later today...

The game changer that has checked the regime advance appears to be the introduction of armed Turkish drones, that have inflicted significant damage and forced the surviving regime artillery to pull back, and Assad's forces with them.
There have been gains by the Tr supported rebels. However, I doubt they are permanent and just another ‘ebb and flow’ in the latest stage of the nearly nine year civil war
We currently have the slightly bizarre situation of Russian jets turning the rebels to mincemeat and the Turks doing the same to the regime, whilst seemingly not trying to stop each other.
Turkey disagrees, but then their current regime lies nearly as much as Putin’s.

Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said Turkish troops shared coordinates with Russia, which were then given to Syrian government forces, to avoid conflict on the ground. He said Russian warplanes were not providing support in the area where the Turkish soldiers were killed.

"The coordinates conveyed yesterday did not mention the areas where ultimately the Turkish soldiers died," Nebenzia said. "As soon as it became clear that it happened the Russian side took exhaustive measures to cease hostilities and to ensure the safe evacuation of the dead and injured."


It is tempting to say that the Russians had miscalculated the Turkish use of armed drones and have current no counter to them, but I'm less sure that it is purely a tactical mistake.
It’s the latest and I’ve seen nothing that makes me think Assad’s regime will not continue their assault. Undoubtedly they will gain aid to counter the drones, be it from Iran or Russia.
Beyond this, not certain what is going on...
Same old with the ongoing civil war.
Personally, I think at the end of all this we will end up with a rump Syria, with Russia as guarantor, a Kurdish protectorate guaranteed by the US and an Islamist protectorate guaranteed by Turkey.
Assad has repeatedly said he wants all of Syria back. He’ll want the SDF controlled oilfields. The Kurds only long term hope is some kind of autonomy as they have in Iraq. Not that I trust Assad’s govt, but it is their only option imo.
Sadly, we probably need to completely drain the swamp of combat power on all sides before the parties will accept the gains and losses of territory that will be necessary - as occurred in Bosnia.
There's no will for UN troops on the ground let alone IFOR or SFOR. It’ll carry on until Assad says he’s had enough with millions displaced internally and externally which he appears not to want and who do not appear to want to return to Assad govt controlled areas.
Indeed, the more fighters the warring parties lose, the more quickly that settlement will come.
No problem with Jihadists and other AQ/HTS types plus other terrorist organisations such as Hezbollah killing each other.

Most in the Assad regime and Tr armed forces seem to be there because they’ve been told to go there and fight whether they want to or not.
 
I'm not sure that the current government in the US would be willing to take on the burden of being responsible for any sort of Kurdish protectorate. The optics of bailing out of Afghanistan only to then make a permanent commitment to Kurdistan aren't likely to appeal to the current resident of the White House.

However, the threat of Turkey may motivate the Kurds to come to terms with Damascus, if they are offered a reasonable amount of autonomy.

It is quite possible that Turkey will hang onto a slice of north western Syria though, much like Israel has with the Golan Heights.
Arguably they de facto already have, and Trump's remarks about the oil imply that he sees the Americans as there to stay - it does not need to be in large numbers, merely a tripwire (given the size of the US "stick") and the oil would give any protectorate an income.

That said, most of the oil-bearing zone currently guarded by the US has traditionally been Arab, not Kurdish. Moreover, although Damascus has already offered forms of autonomy, the Kurds remain deeply suspicious, and given what is currently happening around Dara'a, hardly surprising...
 
The same goes for common Afghan lore, perfidious Albion is behind every misfortune that befalls Afghanistan - the Beeb did a report on the phenomenon a couple of years ago.

To be honest I cannot think of anyone who actually likes us, until they need us.
 
Does anyone know if Turkey have their S-400 system turned on? Are they just watching Russian aircraft bombing their troops on the screen and doing nothing?
 

4(T)

LE
Does anyone know if Turkey have their S-400 system turned on? Are they just watching Russian aircraft bombing their troops on the screen and doing nothing?

I imagine that they have just discovered that their new S-400 can't see Russian aircraft for some reason...
 

JCC

War Hero
Would a new Ottoman Empire policing the ME be a bad thing from our point of view? We've had our crack and the results havn't been great.
 

Deserter

On ROPS
On ROPs
Factually incorrect. Show working....
We were bankrupt, Its a fact we borrowed enormous sums from America and others well over 57 Billion, much of it went into our military look at a spike chart at our military spending then, it wasn't the then british taxpayers money..our country has lived in this ridiculous bubble of "winning the war" and it was never challenged....hence people like you are so naive about it.
 

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