Things hotting up with Turkey

Strategically, we have no strategy except to fulfill two contradictory aims of making money and wracking up virtue signalling points... Personally, I think the first is the only realistic option and I would happily sell CBUs to the syrian government and to hell with the international consensus.
This is the great thing about this forum, the ability to divine the real opinions of folks from far, far away that will never show up in polite conversation.
 
I was being sarcastic. But ref your point, not unless it suits us - anymore than you'd join us if we decided to go to war with France Argentina in 1982.
Par exemple.
 
This is the great thing about this forum, the ability to divine the real opinions of folks from far, far away that will never show up in polite conversation.
What benefit has the UK garnered from our special relationship ? we surrendered the empire on US demand after you bankrupted the nation. We then became a beacon for your international consensus, as the US flip flopped through the decades and we're generally seen as little satan and the US dogsbody. The US pushed us deeper into the EU and your president dictated the GFA and gave terrorists a pyrrhic victory...... Now we show a few signs of an independent foreign policy and you chuck your toys out of the pram.

With regards Turkey, I don't see them as allies and as you saw with talk of opening the borders, Erdogan is a bully and blackmailer. He made his bed and should sort his mess out alone.
 
What benefit has the UK garnered from our special relationship ? we surrendered the empire on US demand after you bankrupted the nation. We then became a beacon for your international consensus, as the US flip flopped through the decades and we're generally seen as little satan and the US dogsbody. The US pushed us deeper into the EU and your president dictated the GFA and gave terrorists a pyrrhic victory...... Now we show a few signs of an independent foreign policy and you chuck your toys out of the pram.

With regards Turkey, I don't see them as allies and as you saw with talk of opening the borders, Erdogan is a bully and blackmailer. He made his bed and should sort his mess out alone.
The Empire was history as a result of WWI.
The Americans gave us very generous help during and post WWII.
The GFA was basically dictated by John Major but he didn't have the majority to push it through.
US presence made it more amenable to both sides.
I agree re Turkey.
 
Empires rise and fall, nobody's fault just a fact of nature. Leaders rise, and historically can cause immense damage ... to their own countries before they fall.

Leaders who have severely damage their own nations are a slightly rarer breed. Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot, Mao Tse Tung, The entire NK trio, and probably others, but those spring immediately to mind as being mass murderers.

Erdogan is not a mass murderer but he aint half f*cking things up for Turkey.
 
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What benefit has the UK garnered from our special relationship ? we surrendered the empire on US demand after you bankrupted the nation. We then became a beacon for your international consensus, as the US flip flopped through the decades and we're generally seen as little satan and the US dogsbody. The US pushed us deeper into the EU and your president dictated the GFA and gave terrorists a pyrrhic victory...... Now we show a few signs of an independent foreign policy and you chuck your toys out of the pram.

With regards Turkey, I don't see them as allies and as you saw with talk of opening the borders, Erdogan is a bully and blackmailer. He made his bed and should sort his mess out alone.
An interesting POV.

The Empire was lost post WW1 and WW2 just sped up the process.

I would say you were viewed as more or less a member of the team.
The EU was a way to bind Europeans together without the traditional methods of conflict resolution that led to all the various wars that has marked European history for God knows how long. The idea was that binding all the nations economically would prevent you lot from killing each other and from Uncle Sam having to clean up the mess again. In that regard the EU has been very successful. Granted the political overreach is a bit scary and I can understand why your country decided to leave.

The "Independent" policy however is a cause for great concern over here. Whilst it is abundantly clear your government gives not a feck about our concerns, the United States is also a sovereign country and can exercise that sovereignty as well. So whilst you view it as perfectly ok for your country do whatever it wants with whomever it wants, you still expect that article 5 guarantee to be ironclad. Which is the problem, because more and more people over here are getting very skeptical and tired of that sort of relationship.

Erdrogan is a pita. Were he to go perhaps things could be patched up. But if he wants to let the refugees flow into Europe he can do so. It his not his responsibility to secure European borders. If Europe is worried about that perhaps they could help secure a No Fly Zone over Northern Syria...You know you scratch my back and I scratch yours....
 
The Times were pushing big style for Western involvement in Syria in 2013 after the death of Marie Colvin in 2012. Cameron seemed to be all for it but luckly Obama showed little enthusiasm. That was my impression anyway.
According to what I recall of the situation, there were influential elements in the US who were pushing for war with Syria and invasion, and would have got their way if they could get the backing of enough other important countries to make it not look like a US only event. War was looking inevitable at that point, and a wide array of other Western countries were going to be dragged into it without any real enthusiasm just to avoid a diplomatic break with those of their NATO allies who wanted war.

The UK parliament however voted against it, and that sent a shock around the world which suddenly made going to war much less palatable. That as I recall is what stopped what had seemed to be an inevitable march to war.

I don't think Cameron expected to lose that vote. He just held it to try to placate his opponents and then found himself trapped by the result. He seems to have had form when it came to things like that.
 
Americans playing cricket. Who knew. Good luck. Hope you thrash the Russians and Turks. If you do well enough we may consider letting you back in the British Empire. You would have to drive on the left, learn to spell and pronounce English properly. And be nice and say sorry all the time like the Canadiens. In fact you could become Canadiens. It would make life simpler. We could call it British North America.
Canadians may have a reputation for being polite, but Canadiens don't. The latter word has largely fallen out of use except in long standing historic cases, but it originally meant Quebec francophones.
 
Well not really, it is a hugely strategic asset as well as large user of military hardware. The Tartous Naval base is Russia's only naval facility where it enjoys sovereign jurisdiction, its only base in the Mediterranean and only remaining military facility outside the former USSR.
In 2017, Russia and Syria signed an agreement with Russia allowed to expand and use the naval facility at Tartous for 49 years on a free-of-charge basis and is allowed to berth nuclear powered vessels.

Khmeimim Hmeimim are Russian air bases and recently Qamishili a new Syrian airbase on the Turkish border, only a few weeks after US forces, had left. Russian and Syrian officials reported to be putting final touches on a 49-year lease deal similar to lease of Tartous.

Russia’s biggest electronic ‘eavesdropping post’ outside Russian territory is in Latakia.

It has significant investments in Syria, investments in the country were valued at $19.4 billion in 2009, exports to Syria were worth $1.1 billion in 2010. They sold around $1.5 billion worth of arms to Syria, making them Moscow's seventh-largest client. Russian firms in 2011 had a substantial presence in Syria's infrastructure, energy and tourism industries.
Syria as a military base is really only of much use to the Russians in maintaining their position in Syria in times of overall peace. If a major war kicked off between Russia and NATO then those bases would be isolated from Russia and find themselves very much on the defensive.

As a political and diplomatic statement, Tartous has value, but only a rather limited one. In military terms you will have to excuse me if I am not particularly impressed by the Russian surface fleet outside of the waters immediately around their own shores. Their submarines are another matter, but the Mediterranean is an almost completely enclosed sea with only a few narrow entry and exit points back to Russia for resupply and repair, and the sea is relatively shallow and so there are limited places for a large submarine to hide in and one half of the long narrow sea is bordered by NATO countries.

The political and diplomatic value of Syria to Russia are in showing that they will back their close allies to the hilt, and in giving them a diplomatic entre into issues of the Middle East, which in turn gives them some influence over adjoining regions that matter very much to them, such as the Caucasus and Central Asia.

As for Turkey's direction over the long run, remember that Erdogan is not immortal. One day he will be gone and whomever replaces him may have different ideas about where Turkey's foreign policy interest lie. There is no point in forcing a permanent break with Turkey when we have reason to believe that their long term interests may be closer to our own than to Russia's and they may come around to realising that eventually.
 
Several years ago I made a post on Arrse saying that Turkey was attempting to extend its area of influence to include Northern Syria, and in particular the territory claimed by the Kurds.

I was roundly abused by others.

Well Turkey is now up to its bollox in Northern Syria.
 
Several years ago I made a post on Arrse saying that Turkey was attempting to extend its area of influence to include Northern Syria, and in particular the territory claimed by the Kurds.

I was roundly abused by others.

Well Turkey is now up to its bollox in Northern Syria.
And its not going to end well.
 
In 2015 I wrote:

don't have time to explain this right now, but turkey is playing s very dangerous game in Syria.

It is attempting to expand its borders to recover part of its lost empire, and it is avoiding fighting ISIL because of its pious Muslim population.

Neither of these are helping anyone, and risk a further escalation of a dangerous situation.

Right now those cheering them on are akin to the idiots who cheered WW1 troops off to fight the Kaiser and "be home by Christmas".

Instantly people like Brotherton Lad responded telling me I was wrong.

Its five years on lads...... Turkish troops are now in Syria.
 
Several years ago I made a post on Arrse saying that Turkey was attempting to extend its area of influence to include Northern Syria, and in particular the territory claimed by the Kurds.

I was roundly abused by others.

Well Turkey is now up to its bollox in Northern Syria.
The way the wind blows: despite, or because of, the Ottoman Empire, many Arabs aren't great fans of the Anatolians.

'While the Turkish military has suffered significant casualties in Syria's Idlib region as a three-month Russian and Syrian offensive intensifies, Erdogan's former Arab partners in Syria have largely left him alone in the quagmire while they quietly broker new ties with Syria's Bashar Assad. Experts say those Arab countries are following US policies in withdrawing from Syria and that they fear Turkey has imperial ambitions of its own. Some also dislike Erdogan's relations with their regional rival Iran, they say. "Now he stands alone facing a superpower like Russia and an experienced Syrian army on Syrian soil," said Abdel Bari Atwan, the editor-in-chief of the London-based online Arabic daily Rai al-Youm. "His position is critical."

'Although Turkey's NATO allies held urgent talks Friday after 33 Turkish soldiers were killed overnight, the body's ruling council did not commit to any new assistance, something Erdogan does not much count on anyway, according to Turkish political analyst Taha Odehoglu. "Going back seven years, Turkey was the tip of the spear in a coalition that included 65 countries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar all supported Erdogan in his political and military intervention in Syria," Atwan said. The Arab League recognized the Syrian political opposition coalition in 2013. But now, Qatar appears to be Turkey's only firm ally in the fight, while other Arab states rebuild relations with Assad.'


 
In 2015 I wrote:

don't have time to explain this right now, but turkey is playing s very dangerous game in Syria.

It is attempting to expand its borders to recover part of its lost empire, and it is avoiding fighting ISIL because of its pious Muslim population.

Neither of these are helping anyone, and risk a further escalation of a dangerous situation.

Right now those cheering them on are akin to the idiots who cheered WW1 troops off to fight the Kaiser and "be home by Christmas".

Instantly people like Brotherton Lad responded telling me I was wrong.

Its five years on lads...... Turkish troops are now in Syria.
At this precise moment Erdogan is talking up war, Putin talking it down - the latter is probably now prepared to let the current Idlib front freeze whilst the regime recovers its recent losses. By acting conciliatory, he also ensures that in any follow-on fisticuffs, he can wash his hands of blame for initiating what may follow.

What is not clear to Erdogan is what Putin's red line actually is and what his reaction will be when it is crossed.
 

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