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Theresa May about to Resign?

Assuming that the VoNC fails, it relies on Tory remainers not throwing their dummies out
Too many dummies needing to be spat out unfortunately... a couple of abstentions by politically suicidal tory backbenchers perhaps.

Assuming that the vote is cleanly split Conservative and DUP vs the rest...

Total voting seats = 649 (excludes Mr Speaker). The vote would look like...

327 for the government (317 seats plus 10 DUP)​
315 against the government (322 seats minus 7 Sinn Fein)​
There would need to be 13 conservative abstentions or 7 conservative votes against the government for the VoNC to succeed. As a mix of the two, the seven votes needed would be reduced by one for every two abstentions, e.g. 2 abstentions and 6 votes, 4 abstentions, 5 vote etc.

Whichever way you cut it, there is a greater likelihood of the pope flogging cut price johnnies from a stall on St Peters Square than there is of today's VoNC succeeding.

Nota Bene: if the numbers are wrong, I got them from Dianne Abbot.
 
Barnier on the tellybox sayng the EU regrets the decision to vote down the deal, and that the UK should reconsider its red lines.

Seems he wants us to surrender even more next time, and that the EU is unhappy they didn't get the surrender deal through....
 
You make it sound as though it was a all part of her carefully calculated master plan when you say 'she forced Corbyn out of his hole'. The reality is of course is that the scale of the government defeat forced his hand in tabling a VoNC.

He knows today and he knew yesterday that a VoNC can only and will only fail. He'll not be getting too exercised (beyond dispatch box theatrics) by the obvious outcome. He certainly won't be 'bricking it'.

Corbyn may be an odious Arrse but he and his advisors are far from stupid. He also has the luxury of being able to table as many motions of no confidence as he wants, whenever he wants.

Even I wasn't expecting the size of her defeat. I thought my 160 was a little optimistic. But now Corbyn has nowhere to go, if labour had a decent electable leader they would have been streets ahead, the fact that they're bouncing around neck and neck says all you need to know about that ridiculous specimen.
How can they not have the figures to tramp all over this current zombie government. It's Corbyn nothing else.
 
Even I wasn't expecting the size of her defeat. I thought my 160 was a little optimistic. But now Corbyn has nowhere to go, if labour had a decent electable leader they would have been streets ahead, the fact that they're bouncing around neck and neck says all you need to know about that ridiculous specimen.
How can they not have the figures to tramp all over this current zombie government. It's Corbyn nothing else.

You are conflating two issues old fruit... no argument with your view of Corbyn as the toxic leader of an toxic opposition party at all.

The point I am making is that Theresa May has not dragged him out of his bolt hole... her historic and enormously humiliating defeat has forced his hand in calling for a VoNC as the leader of the opposition rather than as Jeremy Corbyn desperate for a general election. There is a vast difference between those two things.
 
Barnier on the tellybox sayng the EU regrets the decision to vote down the deal, and that the UK should reconsider its red lines.

Seems he wants us to surrender even more next time, and that the EU is unhappy they didn't get the surrender deal through....

Barnier should be told where to go in no uncertain terms.

France may be a vassel state to Greater Germany, but the UK will hopefully never be so.
 
Corbyn will lose.

May may well have concocted a deal that was doomed, however a feeling is that this may well make way for a deal that is better for us in that it has sent a very pointed signal to the EU, and to May, that a continuing connection that allows Brussels to dictate in any way to the UK is unacceptable.

She lost because her deal allowed Brussels too much control.

The majority still want OUT!!! of the EU, despite what the remainders may wish for...and want nothing to do with a Labour government under Corbyn.

May may be many things, but in no way is she as bad as Corbyn would be.
 
I'd wager some folks in UncleSamLand are thinking a long gun round would help you folks out!

My old man would be one of them. The problem is that would lead to mass ugliness in the different political tribes. The heart attack and natural causes would not.
 
The proposed-and now defeated government deal would have conferred the status of Vichy France on the United Kingdom.

A fact which all mainstream media either skate over or fail to mention is that all 27 members would have to unanimously agree to release us from the transition period. Bearing in mind that Macron has already said that unless France got a deal for them to fish our waters he wouldn't sign up to that release
.
 
Too many dummies needing to be spat out unfortunately... a couple of abstentions by politically suicidal tory backbenchers perhaps.

Assuming that the vote is cleanly split Conservative and DUP vs the rest...

Total voting seats = 649 (excludes Mr Speaker). The vote would look like...

327 for the government (317 seats plus 10 DUP)​
315 against the government (322 seats minus 7 Sinn Fein)​
There would need to be 13 conservative abstentions or 7 conservative votes against the government for the VoNC to succeed. As a mix of the two, the seven votes needed would be reduced by one for every two abstentions, e.g. 2 abstentions and 6 votes, 4 abstentions, 5 vote etc.

Whichever way you cut it, there is a greater likelihood of the pope flogging cut price johnnies from a stall on St Peters Square than there is of today's VoNC succeeding.

Nota Bene: if the numbers are wrong, I got them from Dianne Abbot.

It may not be as many as 315 - there are seven independent MPs & one convicted perverter of the course of justice recently removed from Labour, of whom six are ex-Labour and at least two of whom - knowing that they're not going to be selected for the next election - may well raise two fingers at JC and abstain. John Woodcock is unlikely to vote for something which might allow Corbyn into power, thus leading to work on SSBNs stopping fairly promptly; Frank Field is more in tune with PMTM on things in general than with JC.

I suspect that Lady Hermon may not support Corbyn on this; although she tended to support Labour in pre-Corbyn days, she's on record as having said that she will never support Labour while Corbyn is leader.

Ivan Lewis will probably be having conflicted views - he despises Corbyn (the feeling is mutual), regards him as someone who at best tolerates anti-semetism and is of the view that his suspension from the party over sexual harassment allegations was in fact designed to get him out of the way for a Corbynite replacement. While he has no love for PMTM and the Tories, I wouldn't be 100% sure of his support were I a Labour whip.

So it could easily be 327 in favour of the government with 312 against thanks to independents abstaining. If Tulip Siddiqui has to go for her C-section, I rather think that her views about pairing expressed yesterday will count against her, and that'll be another vote JC doesn't have.

I'd respectfully suggest that Corbyn is partly going for a VoNC because he really, really wants to be PM - he could have simply stood up and said that he recognised that the DUP will support PMTM, rendering a VoNC pointless at this moment in time, but giving notice that he will be ready to launch one when he believes that there's a reasonable chance of success and so as not to get in the way of debates on Brexit and normal Commons business 'which also matters to the people of this country' [or similar patronising virtue-signalling language] thus managing to appear a bit more statesmanlike.
 
he could have simply stood up and said that he recognised that the DUP will support PMTM, rendering a VoNC pointless at this moment in time, but giving notice that he will be ready to launch one when he believes that there's a reasonable chance of success
He has absolutely nothing to lose on this one... tomorrow, his side of the house will be in exactly the same position it was in a day ago.

The government on the other hand - a win by the narrowest of mathematically possible margins is really not going to cover it and its beleaguered leader in glory.

Chipping away at the government's authority to govern is better for JC than doing nothing at all.
 
One thing people have been saying about May is that she is resilient-as though it's a compliment. Resilience is not a virtue in a vacuum. It only becomes a virtue when paired with other virtuous traits.

A certain Herr A. Hitler was remarkably resilient in the early 40s and all it brought was his nation being bombed into a moonscape and then invasion by the rapiest army of modern times.
 
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