HappyNomad
MIA
Too many dummies needing to be spat out unfortunately... a couple of abstentions by politically suicidal tory backbenchers perhaps.Assuming that the VoNC fails, it relies on Tory remainers not throwing their dummies out
Assuming that the vote is cleanly split Conservative and DUP vs the rest...
Total voting seats = 649 (excludes Mr Speaker). The vote would look like...
327 for the government (317 seats plus 10 DUP)
315 against the government (322 seats minus 7 Sinn Fein)
There would need to be 13 conservative abstentions or 7 conservative votes against the government for the VoNC to succeed. As a mix of the two, the seven votes needed would be reduced by one for every two abstentions, e.g. 2 abstentions and 6 votes, 4 abstentions, 5 vote etc.Whichever way you cut it, there is a greater likelihood of the pope flogging cut price johnnies from a stall on St Peters Square than there is of today's VoNC succeeding.
Nota Bene: if the numbers are wrong, I got them from Dianne Abbot.