bob_the_bomb
LE
On black voting demographics:
The website gives a good summary of black voting history and the switch from supporting Republicans (Lincoln) to Democrats (Kennedy).
These are solid, descriptive statistics.
Since Kennedy the vote has been around 10-15% Republican.
Electing the first black president in 2008 (unsurprisingly) takes that to an all time low of 4%.
Now I’ll just introduce the concept of ‘regression to the mean’. Something that all people with any education in statistics will have heard of but isn’t something that most people would have heard of.
Basically, it’s completely within statistical norms for the black Republican vote to rebound from the unprecedented low of 4% to something in the 10-15% range.
20% would be possible but statistically unlikely (though not impossible) without another explanatory variable (like a black middle class reaction to BLM, for example).
But, given that we are talking about black and (normally) democratic ‘swing’ voters here, it will be interesting to see what effect having Harris on the ticket has on that exact demographic.
POLITICS - BlackDemographics.com
Black Party Affiliation African Americans have played a significant role in both major political parties in the United States. After the Civil War, most African Americans identified as Republicans because the party was founded by abolitionists and was led by President Abraham Lincoln. In...
blackdemographics.com
The website gives a good summary of black voting history and the switch from supporting Republicans (Lincoln) to Democrats (Kennedy).
These are solid, descriptive statistics.
Since Kennedy the vote has been around 10-15% Republican.
Electing the first black president in 2008 (unsurprisingly) takes that to an all time low of 4%.
Now I’ll just introduce the concept of ‘regression to the mean’. Something that all people with any education in statistics will have heard of but isn’t something that most people would have heard of.
Basically, it’s completely within statistical norms for the black Republican vote to rebound from the unprecedented low of 4% to something in the 10-15% range.
20% would be possible but statistically unlikely (though not impossible) without another explanatory variable (like a black middle class reaction to BLM, for example).
But, given that we are talking about black and (normally) democratic ‘swing’ voters here, it will be interesting to see what effect having Harris on the ticket has on that exact demographic.
Descriptive statistics - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Regression toward the mean - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org