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The Trump Presidency...

I posted 12 of the very latest general pollings and you give me an Old and then this...... In truth, it just amuses me, how easy it is to trigger dissonance in a target group, by posting analysis at odds with the herd.

If I'm wrong and trump loses, well I certainly won't lose any sleep over it, given months of been told Trump has lost. But if I'm right, the shock will be of a magnitude greater than 2016 and will keep me amused for months, including your tiny tearful contribution.
 
I posted 12 of the very latest general pollings and you give me an Old and then this...... In truth, it just amuses me, how easy it is to trigger dissonance in a target group, by posting analysis at odds with the herd.

If I'm wrong and trump loses, well I certainly won't lose any sleep over it, given months of been told Trump has lost. But if I'm right, the shock will be of a magnitude greater than 2016 and will keep me amused for months, including your tiny tearful contribution.
Of course.
 
Polling; Most semi-sensible people on both sides of the US election divide, would accept that Trump has had some sort of swing, since the start of the month, as evident in the swing states... Some people argue that polling isn't crooked and yet the last 12 general polls:-

5 polls - have Trump on less than 42 % points, which is highly dubious.
3 polls - have Trump on exactly 42 % points.
2 polls - have Trump on 46 % points.
1 poll - has Trump on 48 points.

Conclusion:-
The argument; is the polling got it wrong in the lead up to 2016 and by election day, the spread was closer and most polls fell close to the margin of error(partly true).. Lessons learned and in 2020 it will be better...

The evidence to me, is unlike 2020, the polling has split into two clearly definable groups and that is evidence of bias in one side, as the other group is going to be spectacularly wrong.

Actual conclusion:

I’ll just ignore the polls I don’t like and call that ‘analysis’

In actual polls:

 
Of course.
As you and comedy bob are hooked; lets look at USC Dornsife polling which I believed to be wrong:-
Its lasts general poll around 3 days ago had Trump on 42.25%. With an insignificant range of 45.8% points.
USC have just added, two new questions around 'Wisdom of the Crowd' to its polling and well worth watching out for its next poll, as I would imagine it will lift Trumps number up towards 45 % points.

Alternatively, lets look at the early voting already in and if Biden was 12 points ahead, its not showing up in the early voting counts, which show very worrying signs for the Democrats, who should be miles ahead on early voting.

In Conclusion: I feel it my public duty to let you down slowly and revealing snippets of reality at a time will aid you and others in your long term recovery.
 

offog

LE
Quitd remarkable claims:

So these documents were so important that they did not copy them before sending them. :rolleyes:

How many packages does Fox send out every day using this carrier and only this one in an envelope marked VERY IMPORTANT AND WILL BRING DOWN BIDEN written on it was identified and opened. :eek:

They emptied the package and left it so that it could easily be found rather than taking the package or redirecting it to outer Mongolia were it would never be found.

And this is coming from a person his own company said is not to be believed.
 
Four more years of Trump = same as now for the rest of the world.
Dems get in - the world will be on fire, not just the US, within four years.
You'll need to show your workings for those statements.

Or are they unfounded option?
 
So these documents were so important that they did not copy them before sending them. :rolleyes:

Who said that?

How many packages does Fox send out every day using this carrier and only this one in an envelope marked VERY IMPORTANT AND WILL BRING DOWN BIDEN written on it was identified and opened. :eek:

Who claimed that this said anything of the sort, they only said that the documents were confidential

They emptied the package and left it so that it could easily be found rather than taking the package or redirecting it to outer Mongolia were it would never be found.

And this is coming from a person his own company said is not to be believed.

It’s a weirdly specific claim for Fox to be making if nothing happened, isn’t it?

Particularly since the allegation is that it was an employee at *the courier company* who identified and reported the package as having been opened in transit, not themselves.

Are you saying they are lying?
 

BigT

LE
So these documents were so important that they did not copy them before sending them. :rolleyes:

How many packages does Fox send out every day using this carrier and only this one in an envelope marked VERY IMPORTANT AND WILL BRING DOWN BIDEN written on it was identified and opened. :eek:

They emptied the package and left it so that it could easily be found rather than taking the package or redirecting it to outer Mongolia were it would never be found.

And this is coming from a person his own company said is not to be believed.

The term "the dog ate my homework" seems to be doing the rounds
 

BigT

LE
Who said that?



Who claimed that this said anything of the sort, they only said that the documents were confidential



It’s a weirdly specific claim for Fox to be making if nothing happened, isn’t it?

Particularly since the allegation is that it was an employee at *the courier company* who identified and reported the package as having been opened in transit, not themselves.

Are you saying they are lying?

I notice they haven't mentioned the name of the company, I wonder why.
 

offog

LE
Who said that?
Carlson
Who claimed that this said anything of the sort, they only said that the documents were confidential
Well I assumed that they put some identifying mark on the packages, how else could they have found them in amongst all those other packages.
It’s a weirdly specific claim for Fox to be making if nothing happened, isn’t it?
You got it in one. A claim backed up by stocking evidence that goes missing just as they are about to tell the world and they did not make copies of it. They must think all their viewers are as gullible as you.
Particularly since the allegation is that it was an employee at *the courier company* who identified and reported the package as having been opened in transit, not themselves.
You only have Carlson's word for that and as Fox has said in court he can't be believed.
Are you saying they are lying?
That's what Fox has said in court.

On Wednesday, an attorney for the network asserted that no reasonable viewer would believe that what followed this preamble was factual reporting.

My bold but it may not apply to you.
 
I'm surprised there's anyone left to vote
Both Biden and Harris have claimed 200 million people have died on Donald's watch.
If you noted, I gave a dozen of very latest polls from last night, of which only one was favourable to the Republicans and Probability Bob just brushed it off as I had cherry picked the polls and he doesn't believe that he himself is biased at all :)
.
Of the 12 polls; Only seven even had decent sample sizes of over 1000 and traditionally, anything below that carries a very very hefty question mark, bordering on junk/garbage/rubbish. Of the seven: Trump had 39, 39, 41, 42, 43, 47 and 48 % point of the general share and that spread is enormous. At this point in the polling cycle, polls usually start to narrow across the board and to reasons why ?

I wouldn't bet my house on it, but the Democrats seem to be aware of an undercurrent and desperate to encourage the belief in the non-graduate voter that its not worth it with the fake polling, as Trump is so far behind its not worth the effort.
 

offog

LE
I wouldn't bet my house on it, but the Democrats seem to be aware of an undercurrent and desperate to encourage the belief in the non-graduate voter that its not worth it with the fake polling, as Trump is so far behind its not worth the effort.
My bold.

So you are saying that all these people doing the polls are corrupt. That's a very big claim.

Look mum Jonnies the only one in step!!!
 
Well I assumed that they put some identifying mark on the packages, how else could they have found them in amongst all those other packages.

You assumed?

Let’s say that again - you assumed

You’ve never sent anything by courier I guess?

You got it in one. A claim backed up by stocking evidence that goes missing just as they are about to tell the world and they did not make copies of it. They must think all their viewers are as gullible as you.

Again, where were any such claims made? Where did they say this was evidence of anything, they just said it was confidential documents related to the Biden family that were damning, and that they were documents relevant to the presidential campaign, nor did they say that they didn’t make copies (in fact they specifically comment that they had picture# fo what they had sent)

Frankly, you’re building straw men in your head

Then you wander off on an ad-hominem Ramble.

So, Now, back to it - why would Fox make an allegation that an envelope was not only sent, but that a large national carrier was involved and a specific claim that the envelope was reported by courier staff to have been found to be opened at 3.44 am, it’s so *weirdly* specific as to be remarkable. Why not just say that it didn’t arrive/went missing, rather than identify the exact and specific circumstances that it went missing in.

So I’ll ask you directly once again. Are you accusing them of making this up?
 
My bold.

So you are saying that all these people doing the polls are corrupt. That's a very big claim.

Look mum Jonnies the only one in step!!!

Looking back at the same period in 2016


1. PRRI/Brookings Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 15 points

2.
NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll released on October 10: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points in a one-on-one contest and 11 points in a four way race

3. AP Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points

4.
Monmouth University Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points

5.
ABC Poll released on October 23: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points

6.
Atlantic/PRRI Poll released on October 9: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points

7.
Saint Leo University Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points

8.
USA Today/Suffolk University Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points in a one-on-one race and by nine points in a four way race.

9. Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll released on October 6: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points

10.
SurveyUSA/Boston Globe Poll released on October 14: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points

11.
CBS Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points

12.
Bloomberg Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points

13.
CNBC Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points


Out of step then also?
 
I'm surprised there's anyone left to vote
Both Biden and Harris have claimed 200 million people have died on Donald's watch.
I know lets start a he said stupid against he said stupid competition and find the winner shall we?

That's the way it works in politics, I'll show you how brilliant my guy is and you take the piss which I will not report, but I will freely take the piss out of your guy and report on every single one of them.

For each mistake Biden makes there are 5 or more examples of McDonald Chump doing the same thing, the orange idiot finds it difficult to string ONE sentence together at the best of times yet he thinks he has the best words but you won't see fatties gaffes on the chump media.
 
Alternatively, lets look at the early voting already in and if Biden was 12 points ahead, its not showing up in the early voting counts, which show very worrying signs for the Democrats, who should be miles ahead on early voting.

In Conclusion: I feel it my public duty to let you down slowly and revealing snippets of reality at a time will aid you and others in your long term recovery.
1. Many States don't allow early votes to be counted / results to be announced before say 7pm on Polling day. So your figure is meaningless, even if caveated.

2. The "revealing snippets of reality" are simply those that happen to agree with your viewpoint

Seriously, you really are coming across as part deluded, part obsessed.
 
Looking back at the same period in 2016


1. PRRI/Brookings Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 15 points

2.
NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll released on October 10: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points in a one-on-one contest and 11 points in a four way race

3. AP Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points

4.
Monmouth University Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points

5.
ABC Poll released on October 23: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points

6.
Atlantic/PRRI Poll released on October 9: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points

7.
Saint Leo University Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points

8.
USA Today/Suffolk University Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points in a one-on-one race and by nine points in a four way race.

9. Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll released on October 6: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points

10.
SurveyUSA/Boston Globe Poll released on October 14: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 10 points

11.
CBS Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points

12.
Bloomberg Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points

13.
CNBC Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points


Out of step then also?
She polled more votes than him.

You did know that, didn't you?

Also, the psephologists have had four years to adjust their methodology.
 
If you noted, I gave a dozen of very latest polls from last night, of which only one was favourable to the Republicans and Probability Bob just brushed it off as I had cherry picked the polls and he doesn't believe that he himself is biased at all :)
.
You've actually just admitted to have cherry picked twelve polls, then moan that someone has pointed out you cherry picked...

Seriously, dude...

Stop posting.jpg
 

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