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The Trump Presidency...

...If not for the garbage polls (Leger, Yougov, CNBC, USC), that average would be lower, as the garbage pulls down the mean.

Facts:-
Biden 12 points lead was a polling mirage.
Bidens 8 point lead(real number all along) has probably already lost 6 of those points and the swings you see in Texas/Florida.

Guess:-
At state level Trump is probably a point ahead in PA...

Polling:-
Its a bit like military intelligence and it can detect a movement after the fact, but few can predict the move in advance.

**** me we’re gonna need a whole new irony scale...
 
Its now very tight, but that means Biden could certainly still win this... The democrats wanted a landslide to push its campaign forward and a narrow victory would completely spoil the party, as the prediction then would be a bloodbath far worse than what happened in 2018 midterms.

But unlike Mr Probability Bob, I am willing to make predictions and not hide behind the polling average like somebody on a range lifting a figure 8 on command.

What’s a figure 8?

I know, it’s a knotty problem...

PS I’d rather be known as ‘Probability Bob’ than ‘talking bollix Echo’...
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
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I watched this on Newsnight last night and Maitlis was doing her usual, interrupting trying to get answers she wanted rather than answers to the question.

Bolton was more than a match for her and when she tried to make capital over the money Bolton got for the book, he asked if she received a salary. When Matlis agreed, after several askings, Bolton said well he got paid for his book, like her he did not work for free.

She was way out of her depth with this guy, and didn't even know it! Instead of bringing on the interview she just got him more and more angry to the extent at the end of the interview he just said goodbye then stood up and walked away from the screen. EM (no, not Him) was not best pleased and had a face like a wet Sunday!
 
So, apart for skiving off work for an hour, you want to stand in a crowd during a pandemic to count numbers?
Will that alter how you intend to vote?
Sounds silly to me.
Nope, won’t alter the vote at all. I am sure social distancing will be practiced etc, etc.
But it is the Rona not Ebola, we are in the midst of the third peak and life will still go on.
 
Nope, won’t alter the vote at all. I am sure social distancing will be practiced etc, etc.
But it is the Rona not Ebola, we are in the midst of the third peak and life will still go on.
Except it doesn't for the quarter of a million dead Americans from an epidemic noted for its incredibly bad management by a negligent sociopathic half wit.
Who you are going to vote for.
 
Except it doesn't for the quarter of a million dead Americans from an epidemic noted for its incredibly bad management by a negligent sociopathic half wit.
Who you are going to vote for.
Are you that afraid of the Rona? Gen question?

Trump is the least bad option. Biden will be a disaster. To the point the Trump Haters in my family will vote for him, to keep Harris out of the White House.
 
Are you that afraid of the Rona? Gen question?

Trump is the least bad option. Biden will be a disaster. To the point the Trump Haters in my family will vote for him, to keep Harris out of the White House.

Trump’s been enough of a buffoon in his first term, but a bit of a giggle.

The thought of an unbridled ‘lame duck’ Trump however...
 
Are you that afraid of the Rona? Gen question?

Trump is the least bad option. Biden will be a disaster. To the point the Trump Haters in my family will vote for him, to keep Harris out of the White House.
That says a lot about American politics when you have to vote for (in your opinion) the least bad option.

It is quite frightening that the most powerful office in the world is decided this way. Your political system needs a wholesale overhaul, starting from the bottom up.
 

anglo

LE
That says a lot about American politics when you have to vote for (in your opinion) the least bad option.

It is quite frightening that the most powerful office in the world is decided this way. Your political system needs a wholesale overhaul, starting from the bottom up.
That says a lot about American politics when you have to vote for (in your opinion) the least bad option.

Same in the UK too.
 
That says a lot about American politics when you have to vote for (in your opinion) the least bad option.

Same in the UK too.
I Disagree.

I voted for PMBJ because I wanted to, because I thought he was a good choice for the country - not because I didn't want Magic Grandpa walking in to number 10.
 
Except it doesn't for the quarter of a million dead Americans from an epidemic noted for its incredibly bad management by a negligent sociopathic half wit.
Who you are going to vote for.
That's about the same as Europe?

Similar (ish) sizes of populations, cases and deaths as far as I can see from a bit of Google Fu.

Actually looks like the death rate per case is higher in the EU than the US - must be that shit management.

You think Obama or Clinton would have done any better? Might have looked & sounded better thanks to being far ore polished and having the media portray them in a far better light, but I doubt it.

Unless all the EU leaders trying their best are worse than Trump.

Bash Trump for whatever, just make sure the figures back you up.
 
That says a lot about American politics when you have to vote for (in your opinion) the least bad option.

It is quite frightening that the most powerful office in the world is decided this way. Your political system needs a wholesale overhaul, starting from the bottom up.
Start with clarifying the bottom up comment.
The bottom is the individual voter.
 
I Disagree.

I voted for PMBJ because I wanted to, because I thought he was a good choice for the country - not because I didn't want Magic Grandpa walking in to number 10.
So you voted for your version of Trump because you didn't want magic grandpa to occupy # 10...

Yet are critical of the choices Americans are facing... Are you $hitting me??
 
Trump’s been enough of a buffoon in his first term, but a bit of a giggle.

The thought of an unbridled ‘lame duck’ Trump however...

I would worry about a sacred and pissed off conservative base more than a lame duck Trump. Trump will go away either in January or four years, but the MAGA clique will live on.
 
That says a lot about American politics when you have to vote for (in your opinion) the least bad option.

Didn't UK voters have the same choice when deciding to vote for Boris or Corbyn? Boris being the lesser of the two evils.
 

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