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The Trump Presidency...

Joker62

ADC
Book Reviewer
I bet at two she would look like a ten...
As the saying goes "I've never gone to bed with an ugly woman, but I've woken up to a few of them".
 
As a general FYI as mention was made earlier today that Biden is no longer out there campaigning. Well Biden is still doing the rounds; Georgia today, Florida tomorrow I believe, and then a couple or three States up north. Harris is also out there, and Obama is probably attending as many rallies as Biden in an effort to drum up support, and pat supporters on the back.
Tells a story in my book, its not the words that matter but actions and fox had no diary entries for Biden and then suddenly this.... The democrats know something and are worried enough to promise free vaccines and since I last spoke, the media have gone into overdrive (channel 4 had a full broadcast devoted to the US election last night and even the riot intimidation is back, due to the media talking up a justified shooting).

On the shooting; Why didn't the police shoot him in the legs was back on Channel 4... Well the knife wielding lunatic has maybe 2-4 seconds before he is on you and it takes that to get the pistol out, get a quick sight picture and fire, thus you aim at the biggest target(chest).
 
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On polling updates and the pollster forced to tack due to reality starting to hit home:-
1. ALL the polling averages including 538 have Trump ahead in Texas.
2. Realclearpolitics broke cover in Florida and Trump is ahead, with 538 showing Biden only 2 points up.
3. Biden in california now has a poll average below what Clinton got in 2016 i.e. down 0.73%.

The evidence to me says Trump may well do better than he did in 2020 and slightly better than my expectations.
 

pc flaps

Old-Salt
On polling updates and the pollster forced to tack due to reality starting to hit home:-
1. ALL the polling averages including 538 have Trump ahead in Texas.
2. Realclearpolitics broke cover in Florida and Trump is ahead, with 538 showing Biden only 2 points up.
3. Biden in california now has a poll average below what Clinton got in 2016 i.e. down 0.73%.

The evidence to me says Trump may well do better than he did in 2020 and slightly better than my expectations.

He'll need all of those and more though. The key ones are Pennsylvania (20 EC votes) and Michigan (16 votes). He can win one or the other and scrape in, but if he loses both, it's President Biden, God help us. (In that, I'm assuming Wisconsin goes Dem this time)
 
On polling updates and the pollster forced to tack due to reality starting to hit home:-
1. ALL the polling averages including 538 have Trump ahead in Texas.
2. Realclearpolitics broke cover in Florida and Trump is ahead, with 538 showing Biden only 2 points up.
3. Biden in california now has a poll average below what Clinton got in 2016 i.e. down 0.73%.

The evidence to me says Trump may well do better than he did in 2020 and slightly better than my expectations.

Meanwhile, in what the data actually shows:

(Remember this is ‘poll of polls’ data so not cherrypicked)



 

offog

LE
On polling updates and the pollster forced to tack due to reality starting to hit home:-
1. ALL the polling averages including 538 have Trump ahead in Texas.
2. Realclearpolitics broke cover in Florida and Trump is ahead, with 538 showing Biden only 2 points up.
3. Biden in california now has a poll average below what Clinton got in 2016 i.e. down 0.73%.

The evidence to me says Trump may well do better than he did in 2020 and slightly better than my expectations.
Well that was a pointless post.

Trump is expected to win both Texas and Florida so no news there.

Trump not winning in those states would be news.

The same goes for Biden and California. Trump winning in Cal would be big new but Biden down on HC by .73% is probably ignored as it will be well within the margin of error.

Have you got anything of value to say?
 
Wow, that's rich.

Lucky for us it's written by Racheal "Russia, Russia, Russia" Maddow.
And its laughable considering she peddled the massive proven lie against Justice Kavanaugh, she's a dripping mess, surrounded by conspiracy theorists and liars.
Another Trumpette annoyed at the message, so attacking the Messenger.
 
Britannica disagrees with you by the way


So does the IWM
HMG did not declare War on Argentina.

While ir may be viewed as such, from a legal perspective it was a conflict, not a war.
 
Well that was a pointless post.

Trump is expected to win both Texas and Florida so no news there.

Trump not winning in those states would be news.

The same goes for Biden and California. Trump winning in Cal would be big new but Biden down on HC by .73% is probably ignored as it will be well within the margin of error.

Have you got anything of value to say?
Wikipedia:-
Show a 2 way race as Biden ahead by 8 points and a four-way race as Biden ahead 7 points... If not for the garbage polls (Leger, Yougov, CNBC, USC), that average would be lower, as the garbage pulls down the mean.

Polling changes:-
Realclearpolitics and 538 are no longer aligned, that is important. The swing back to Trump is significant enough to tip both Texas/Florida to Trump and your wrong about pointless, as remember some idiots were defending Bidens double digit lead not so long ago......

Facts:-
Biden 12 points lead was a polling mirage.
Bidens 8 point lead(real number all along) has probably already lost 6 of those points and the swings you see in Texas/Florida.

Guess:-
At state level Trump is probably a point ahead in PA and I still expect another swing going into election day of probably 2-3% points and deliver a shock win on both college votes and ahead on popular vote (discounting bidens numbers in solid blue states will come back to haunt the pollsters).

Polling:-
Its a bit like military intelligence and it can detect a movement after the fact, but few can predict the move in advance.
 
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He'll need all of those and more though. The key ones are Pennsylvania (20 EC votes) and Michigan (16 votes). He can win one or the other and scrape in, but if he loses both, it's President Biden, God help us. (In that, I'm assuming Wisconsin goes Dem this time)
Its now very tight, but that means Biden could certainly still win this... The democrats wanted a landslide to push its campaign forward and a narrow victory would completely spoil the party, as the prediction then would be a bloodbath far worse than what happened in 2018 midterms.

But unlike Mr Probability Bob, I am willing to make predictions and not hide behind the polling average like somebody on a range lifting a figure 11.
 
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As much as I enjoy the polls banter, the Fox interview with Hunter and Jim Biden's ex business partner is now on YouTube. It does not paint Joe Biden in a very good light. Either way Joe Biden is going to have to be investigated to either prove his innocence or his guilt.
Deflecting it with "Russia Smear Campaign" is not going to cut the mustard much longer.

Worth a watch. .

 
As much as I enjoy the polls banter, the Fox interview with Hunter and Jim Biden's ex business partner is now on YouTube. It does not paint Joe Biden in a very good light. Either way Joe Biden is going to have to be investigated to either prove his innocence or his guilt.
Deflecting it with "Russia Smear Campaign" is not going to cut the mustard much longer.

Worth a watch. .

If he wins he is going to have some legitimacy issues.

But I suspect parts of the country will be in flames. I made the mistake of watching the news last night in regards to Philadelphia.
 
It depends on how committed you are as a voter. I would just dress warm and use the loo before you go vote. But if a person views this election as important they will endure some first world issues and moderate discomfort.
If you were REALLY committed as a voter, then you would vote as soon as possible.
By post.
Then you would already have the warm fuzzy feeling of having done your civic duty, and not have to take time off work at the last minute.
With no discomfort at all.
Like a sensible person.
 
If you were REALLY committed as a voter, then you would vote as soon as possible.
By post.
Then you would already have the warm fuzzy feeling of having done your civic duty, and not have to take time off work at the last minute.
With no discomfort at all.
Like a sensible person.
Or just use the hour I am provided as a civil serpent to go to the church that serves as a polling station. I would like to see the size of the crowd to gauge turnout.
 
As much as I enjoy the polls banter, the Fox interview with Hunter and Jim Biden's ex business partner is now on YouTube. It does not paint Joe Biden in a very good light. Either way Joe Biden is going to have to be investigated to either prove his innocence or his guilt.
Deflecting it with "Russia Smear Campaign" is not going to cut the mustard much longer.

Worth a watch. .

The Chairman says NO. Nothing to see here and its all just russians stirring up trouble and the media simply buy the most simplistic and idiotic defence of 'its russians' without producing a shred of evidence.
 
Or just use the hour I am provided as a civil serpent to go to the church that serves as a polling station. I would like to see the size of the crowd to gauge turnout.
So, apart for skiving off work for an hour, you want to stand in a crowd during a pandemic to count numbers?
Will that alter how you intend to vote?
Sounds silly to me.
 

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