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The Trump Presidency...

Oh dear, how sad, too bad.

'They say karma’s a bitch, but those on the left might not use such a disparaging term for her now that the coronavirus has begun sweeping through Vice President Pence’s staff and has also set its sights on some of the top hosts at Fox News. That’s right, according to reports, the Vice President’s chief of staff has tested positive, as have four other staff members. Meanwhile, at Fox News, that bastion of misinformation about Covid-19, someone on a private flight home from the last presidential debate has apparently tested positive, potentially infecting the likes of Brett Baer, Dana Perino and Juan Williams, among others.'


Yup. As of last night it had hit five of his staff including his most senior bag carrier.

He should have been at the confirmation of the judge last evening, but was busy out on the re-election trail. Rumour was/is that he and his staff were banished to doing the re-election rounds to get their plague infested bodies out of DC.
 
How many UK Judges voted for Brexit, or Boris Johnson in 2019 ?
How many Teachers voted for Brexit, or Boris Johnson in 2019 ?
How many Media types in the UK voted for Brexit, or Boris Johnson in 2019 ?
At least in america things have some kind of transparancy.

The types of vote you mention are between the individual and the ballot box. Funnily enough just like casting a vote in the Presidential election is between the individual and the ballot box.

I'll admit there is some transparency in America. Every fcuker seems to think they have the right to sell my personal information so that my mail box is always filled with junk mail and people seem to think it is alright to address me by my first name rather than using my title.
 
Steamy, I would have a look at your recent presidential history before making a statement like the emboldened one above. Because it's wrong.

Executive decrees by president are:
  • Trump/Reagan - Joint first with 48/year
  • Bush 41 - Third with 41/year
  • Obama _ Fourth with 34.5/year
  • Bush 43 - Fifth with 34/year
  • Clinton - Sixth with 31/year
Notice anything connecting 1, 2 and 3?

It would appear that ruling by presidential fiat is not exactly the province of the Democrats.




And do you really think that offing Bin Laden was a bad thing?

Was offing Qasem Soleimani a good thing or a bad thing (whilst I don't GAF about him he was at least an official of a nation state and offing him could be regarded as a rather unfortunate precedent).

Bring on the counter battery fire of multiple launched whataboutery.
As mentioned OBL was on the list of achievements old bean.

But the Paris accord was not in his realm of actions to pursue and you know that.
 
To conclude my analysis, I give you Oregon:- (home of portland/chaz and all that stuff).......
I think most people would expect that the democrats will have lost some voters. In actuality, the polls have Biden up 7 points on what Clinton got in oregon back in 2016. But in say California 0.9% points to Biden from Clintons result and an anomaly. Explained away by some as falling to the mean, without any proof of that conclusion.

Summary;
1. Shy Trump voters are not rednecks and are shy about been in the same big tent as those people. But are not automatically then going to vote Biden and the Red state polling, is probably overestimating Bidens vote by at least 3% points per swing state and 6% points in red states, that Trump won in 2016 and will win again in 2020.
2. Shy Trump voters in Blue states, the mood matters and if your in Portland, or New York you keep your mouth shut and if your in rural california, or Mass/Maryland, you feel less pressured to conform publically and more willing to tell the truth to pollsters.. (Biden vote overestimated by at least 6% points and California/Mass/Maryland are bang on the money).

My expectation is the Biden 8 point lead is less of a mirage than 12 points, but the real number is probably not more than 2 points and Trump is now the only candidate who is still campaigning and you do the math. With new voters added, I think its where the Trump ahead is coming from.
 
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Like so many things about the US's somewhat antiquated political settlement (eg the electoral college allocation system) the US supreme court seems to be set up for a much smaller country. More ridiculous is that judges are expected to deal with modern issues by interpreting the intentions of a small group of people from a time when the double-acting steam engine was the bleeding edge of technology and blood-letting an accepted medical treatment.
Having just nine justices and them being life or long-term appointments means that the political reward (itself a disgusting idea when talking about justice) for jiggery-pokery is massively out of proportion to the very low political risk and effort involved in appointing them. If you can pack the court as the Republicans have done in the last four years then it effectively gives them a veto that persists even if they are out of power for the next ten or twenty years.

Frankly I think that for a start a supreme court needs a cap at two or three times as many members along with minimum age and experience levels, a mandatory retirement age and a maximum number of members that can be appointed in any given four-year period. The aim should be to make it so that it's in the parties' interests to get people who are sensible, experienced, politically neutral and above all just onto the court rather than ideologues. To my mind if you can point to a judge (any judge) and say with real confidence that they are politically conservative or politically liberal (by the American definition) then you have problems.

What do you think would happen if you tried to eliminate the electoral college?

The Court was not packed, the rules of the game have not been changed. One side just played it very poorly and now realizes the odds of their agenda going into effect is well zilch point $hit.

Let me show you some political adds from our soon to be new Senator in DC.

This should blow some minds.


 
...............................

My expectation is the Biden 8 point lead is less of a mirage than 12 points, but the real number is probably not more than 2 points and Trump is now the only candidate who is still campaigning and you do the math. With new voters added, I think its where the Trump ahead is coming from.

Nope. The Democrats are still actively campaigning too albeit by telephone. They are calling and talking to known Democrat voters, aswell as others, the first piece of information they are extracting is to ascertain whether the individual has voted already. They are overwhelmingly finding that the majority of early voters are Democrats. If the individual has not voted they are being encouraged to go out and make their ability to vote count.

About the early voting, I cannot remember the numbers, but I saw them somewhere yesterday. It appears that record numbers of black voters have gone out and voted already.

All interesting stuff and we shall see what is what next week.
 
What do you think would happen if you tried to eliminate the electoral college?

The Court was not packed, the rules of the game have not been changed. One side just played it very poorly and now realizes the odds of their agenda going into effect is well zilch point $hit.

Let me show you some political adds from our soon to be new Senator in DC.

This should blow some minds.


I've never said anything about eliminating the electoral college I just think that the way seats on it are allocated is deeply undemocratic and encourages corruption and election fraud.
If you can win all of a states' EC seats simply by having single vote more than your opponent then that makes the potential rewards for fraud, voter suppression and gerrymandering out of proportion to the risk (if any). You can gain a lot for a little not unlike the supreme court.
This is before you consider how it effectively makes voting pointless for supporters of the second-place party in many states - such as Republicans in California.

The problem with your supreme court is that it has "sides" at all, not whose side is winning.


BTW do you not get nauseated by the bucket-of-melted-Roquefort cheesiness of political adverts like that? Whenever some idiot starts banging on about "elites" I wonder A- Do they really want "mediocres" running the show? Aand B - Who the hell do they think is paying for these adverts, "ordinary people" or actual elites like the Koch organisation?
 
Nope. The Democrats are still actively campaigning too albeit by telephone. They are calling and talking to known Democrat voters, aswell as others, the first piece of information they are extracting is to ascertain whether the individual has voted already. They are overwhelmingly finding that the majority of early voters are Democrats. If the individual has not voted they are being encouraged to go out and make their ability to vote count.

About the early voting, I cannot remember the numbers, but I saw them somewhere yesterday. It appears that record numbers of black voters have gone out and voted already.

All interesting stuff and we shall see what is what next week.
That was to be expected and the assumption in early voting was 60-40 democrat and the proportion, is a little less than that.. So arguably, the democrats are not doing as well as they're supposed to be doing at this point in time.
 
I've never said anything about eliminating the electoral college I just think that the way seats on it are allocated is deeply undemocratic and encourages corruption and election fraud.
If you can win all of a states' EC seats simply by having single vote more than your opponent then that makes the potential rewards for fraud, voter suppression and gerrymandering out of proportion to the risk (if any). You can gain a lot for a little not unlike the supreme court.
This is before you consider how it effectively makes voting pointless for supporters of the second-place party in many states - such as Republicans in California.

The problem with your supreme court is that it has "sides" at all, not whose side is winning.


BTW do you not get nauseated by the bucket-of-melted-Roquefort cheesiness of political adverts like that? Whenever some idiot starts banging on about "elites" I wonder A- Do they really want "mediocres" running the show? Aand B - Who the hell do they think is paying for these adverts, "ordinary people" or actual elites like the Koch organisation?
I had to find the adverts on YouTube, as we don't watch much traditional TV anymore.

Lummis is a rich lady, and I imagine she can fiance her own advertising. She really won't have to spend to much to get elected here. Wyoming will not send a Democrat to the Senate or the House.



But understand being an Elite doesn't mean you really know SFA.

Every State get's two senators which is fair.
Then the Representation in the house is based upon population. So we only get one representative.

So what is so bad about that? You know the other party could also maybe try to campaign out here to win?? But who wants to spend time in Gun rack land.
 
Talking of messing up...

Awkward.


At the end of that video he says "I'm not a big fan of Fox, to be honest". News to the world I suppose as he spends every hour of his waking day glued to his Fox Fan Club who fellate him onscreen in return.

I think someone has been at him with their NLP toolbox. It's almost as if he is programmed to respond in automatic mode,

10 IF "Hard question" THEN "You're CNN, you're fake news"
20 IF "Tough question" THEN "You are a rude, terrible person"
30 IF "Difficult question" THEN "Failing WAPO, NYT losers"
40 IF "Problematic question" THEN "Enemies of the people"
50 IF "Hard question 2" THEN "Well, I’m not a big fan of yours either. . . You aren’t, you aren’t the best.”
60 IF "Iffy question" THEN “What a stupid question . . . But I watch you a lot and you ask a lot of stupid questions.”
70 IF "Clever question" THEN "Stop asking wise-guy questions."
80 Repeat ad nauseum
 
A bingo list of things that could go wrong....

Attacks on data, access and availability

1. Ransomware
2. Advance Voter Data Manipulation:
3. Day-of Vote Interruption
4. Actual Vote Manipulation:
5. Messing With Reporting:
6. Distributed Denial-of-Service Attacks:
7. Infrastructure Attacks.
Information operations -
8. Hack-and-Dump:
9. Misleading Voting Information:
10. Voter-Targeted Disinformation
11. Social Media Threats

and....

12. The Tweeter-in-Chief


Oh this is going to be huge fun

 
So what is so bad about that? You know the other party could also maybe try to campaign out here to win?? But who wants to spend time in Gun rack land.
Ironic that you mention this when, with regards the electoral college, it highlights the exact problem I have with it. What is the point in the Blues wasting resources and attention in a Red state - and vice versa - when even if they (eg) increase their share from 35% to 45% it won't do them a blind bit of good?
It's a system that is supposedly designed to prevent less populous states being ignored on the national level but actually encourages national parties to ignore certain states and local parties and politicians to ignore parts of the electorate.
 
Ironic that you mention this when, with regards the electoral college, it highlights the exact problem I have with it. What is the point in the Blues wasting resources and attention in a Red state - and vice versa - when even if they (eg) increase their share from 35% to 45% it won't do them a blind bit of good?
It's a system that is supposedly designed to prevent less populous states being ignored on the national level but actually encourages national parties to ignore certain states and local parties and politicians to ignore parts of the electorate.

Hey if you want to win, you have to go to the places you don't want to go. But the system works as designed, because if we went with the popular vote then only a few states will count whilst the rest of us would be at the mercy of say Los Angles and NYC.

So what is your solution to prevent the US from entering a messy divorce?
 
Hey if you want to win, you have to go to the places you don't want to go. But the system works as designed, because if we went with the popular vote then only a few states will count whilst the rest of us would be at the mercy of say Los Angles and NYC.

So what is your solution to prevent the US from entering a messy divorce?
Are you actually reading what I'm writing? Because you give the impression of responding to something completely different.
 
Are you actually reading what I'm writing? Because you give the impression of responding to something completely different.
I understand what you are saying, but a popular vote will only ensure a few places are campaigned over and the rest of us would truly be left to sod off and die. The rules are simple in most states, win that state and you win the number of EC votes it is worth. Which makes the small states very important in the race to 270 when it is going to be a tooth and nail gutter fight.
 
To conclude my analysis, I give you Oregon:- (home of portland/chaz and all that stuff).......
I think most people would expect that the democrats will have lost some voters. In actuality, the polls have Biden up 7 points on what Clinton got in oregon back in 2016. But in say California 0.9% points to Biden from Clintons result and an anomaly. Explained away by some as falling to the mean, without any proof of that conclusion.

Summary;
1. Shy Trump voters are not rednecks and are shy about been in the same big tent as those people. But are not automatically then going to vote Biden and the Red state polling, is probably overestimating Bidens vote by at least 3% points per swing state and 6% points in red states, that Trump won in 2016 and will win again in 2020.
2. Shy Trump voters in Blue states, the mood matters and if your in Portland, or New York you keep your mouth shut and if your in rural california, or Mass/Maryland, you feel less pressured to conform publically and more willing to tell the truth to pollsters.. (Biden vote overestimated by at least 6% points and California/Mass/Maryland are bang on the money).

My expectation is the Biden 8 point lead is less of a mirage than 12 points, but the real number is probably not more than 2 points and Trump is now the only candidate who is still campaigning and you do the math. With new voters added, I think its where the Trump ahead is coming from.

More ******* cherrypicked nonsense.

1. I assume you think that Biden would lost votes because of Chaz? It’s actually one of your better assumptions but it relies on people buying into the Democrats = violence conflation, which was discussed above. It also relies on people thinking that Trump is still a better bet. If either of those assumptions is not true, there’s no reason why the poll couldn’t go this way, without it being an ‘anomaly’ (is this another word that you don’t actually understand, BTW?).

2. I didn’t need to ‘offer proof’ about ‘regression to the mean’, it’s a concept that’s been known about for more than a century. I was offering it as a POSSIBLE explanation for your earlier observation on Massachusetts (i.e. NOT Oregon) and as a possible explanation (i.e. an ‘hypothesis’) it doesn’t actually need data, unless we wanted to ‘test’ that hypothesis to find out if it were true. All in all a bit of a pot/kettle moment considering all the unsubstantiated drivel you bash out.

3. Your point #1. The first sentence directly contradicts the second. Also, as has been raised before, for every shy Trump voter in, say, NY there could well be a shy Biden voter in a red state. More of your unsubstantiated rubbish.

4. Your point #2. Where the support for the “Biden vote overestimated by at least 6% points”. Don’t tell me - gasp - it’s unsubstantiated? Or have you just cherrypicked it?

5. Again, where’s the evidence for “My expectation is the Biden 8 point lead is less of a mirage than 12 points, but the real number is probably not more than 2 points”?

6. “you do the math”. Really? I though you claimed to be British? I’ve always pooh-poohed the idea that you’re sitting in some troll farm, but really?

7. “With new voters added, I think its where the Trump ahead is coming from”. Another unsubstantiated claim.

But there is some positive news at least. After all, you did start the post with “To conclude my analysis”...

...I ******* hope so.


BTW I thought you had me on ignore? You weak ****.
 

offog

LE
New York - Biden is up 2 points on Clintons 2016 result.
Massachutsetts - Biden is five points down on the polling average, from Clintons Result in 2016 (60%).
California - Biden is up 0.9% on Clintons 2016 result.
DC - Biden is three points down on average, from the clinton result.
Alaska - Trump is down thirteen points from his 2016 result.
Indiana - Trump is down six points from his 2016 result.
Arkansas - Trump is down four points from his 2016 result.
Most swing states - Trump is down by an average of 3%.

Statistically, its quite odd; that the Biden average is all over the place, where he is guaranteed to win, it should show a general consistency, just as Trump losses are consistent and heavier in red states, with a slightly smaller hit in swing states.
Nice squirrel.

Showing Biden in California is pointless as it will be a blue state. Comparing it to Clinton is also pointless as he is not fighting her but Trump.

In 2016 Trump just managed to win by some of the smallest margins a number of states and as @exbleep said if you win by one vote you get the all the college votes.
It is those states that will be the key not Alaska (3 votes) Arkansas solid red (6 votes). It's states like Georgia (16) which are swinging Biden's way and even Texas is looking shaky.
 
Nice squirrel.

Showing Biden in California is pointless as it will be a blue state. Comparing it to Clinton is also pointless as he is not fighting her but Trump.

In 2016 Trump just managed to win by some of the smallest margins a number of states and as @exbleep said if you win by one vote you get the all the college votes.
It is those states that will be the key not Alaska (3 votes) Arkansas solid red (6 votes). It's states like Georgia (16) which are swinging Biden's way and even Texas is looking shaky.
But we still have a week to go and Conservatives tend to vote on election day in person.
 

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