Army Rumour Service

Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

The Trump Presidency...

Nah Bob, his mothers inability to secure her firearms safely has nothing to do with gun control mate. That's a pretty weak argument.

Maybe but it’s one of several points I made.

Where it connects to gun control though is the questions of why she needed that type of weapon, where she was going to keep it, and was she trained in safe storage don’t seem to be asked.

No problem to me that responsible people like you and Jonesy get to have hunting weapons or side arms for self defence btw.

But we’ve been round gun control several times in here, so probably best to leave it.
 
Yep.

Of course you’re right.

What you need is more guns in America.

With such weak controls so that some nutter can off his mum and take her gun to school.

That’s really working for you.

It’s got to the point where mass school shootings don’t even make the news any more.

Fire arm security is definitely one factor, but so is mental health.
With the US approach to private healthcare are troubled teenagers not getting the treatment they need, resulting in their mental health deteriorating and resulting in fatal school schootings?

Would better healthcare reduce teenage mental health issues?
Would better mental health provisions in schools reduce the risk of shootings?

I say this as Canada is similar to the USA but has less school shootings. One of the biggest difference between Canada and the USA is their approach to healthcare, so how much of a factor is this?
 
The problem with the Hunter Biden story isn't so much about bias it's about provenance which seems more than a bit murky, the Fox News talking heads may mention it but their actual journalists who were the first that Rudy Giuliani and Steve Bannon went to kicked them into touch. I fact Rudy Giuliani said he then leaked it to the NY Post because he was worried other news outlets would spend too much time fact checking. It seems to be the latest big thing, like the Nunes memo, the unmasking controversy, Obama gate and the Durham Report, where did they go.

Remember the weeks prior to the 2018 mid-term elections when some sections of the media were screaming about the caravan of migrants at the border coming to rape your women folk, sell drugs to your kids and steal your jobs, funny how that all evaporated the day after. I suspect that come the 4th on November and regardless of the election outcome with the exception of of the internet people the Hunter biden Laptop story will be consigned to the bin of failed strategies.
Fake news - The use of untrue information. If the Laptop is NOT legit, where is the legal response, as libel laws and the US legal profession, are hardly known for pulling punches ???? my guess, is its all true and sort of proves the media is biased and all the anti-trumpsters on here reek of hypocrisy.

'Orange man Bad, literally Hitler' -
If you look at most Trump stories the headline is always exaggerated, with the worst possible misrepresentation and a classic straw man. What astonishes me is, he is the most hated man and his life has been picked apart at the granular level and all his enemies turned up was smoke, mirrors, burgers and some immorality related to most of the wealthy classes.

Biden -
He has overpromised and his government will need very strong leadership to balance the technocratic establishment types, with the authoritarian progressive left and the climate change zealots, all who wish to press the accelerator and even Jimmy Carter was a smarter operator than a Biden in cognitive decline.
 
Damn mate, you just ruined a good comeback with that post. I was biding my time to point out the obvious.
Apologies, Sam.

I don't think it will hurt if he's reminded of it, however...
 
On polling; The right/left leaning pollsters were united, that Trump popularity fell throughout the summer and showed Biden leads of double digits on the average.. Today, the average right leaning Outlier has Trump ahead nationally by a point or more, the left leaning polls have biden around 6-9 points lead AND the average is also 8 points (tell).

At statewide polling not much evidence of swings to Trump by left leaning pollsters to bring down that average. As Morning Consult still have Biden ahead in Texas and actually widening the lead in Florida.

Conclusion;
The right pollsters are riding a serious swing and the left pollsters are dragging the average. In reality, I think this election is now very narrow and no wonder Biden is back in his basement.
 
On polling; The right/left leaning pollsters were united, that Trump popularity fell throughout the summer and showed Biden leads of double digits on the average.. Today, the average right leaning Outlier has Trump ahead nationally by a point or more, the left leaning polls have biden around 6-9 points lead AND the average is also 8 points (tell).

At statewide polling not much evidence of swings to Trump by left leaning pollsters to bring down that average. As Morning Consult still have Biden ahead in Texas and actually widening the lead in Florida.

Conclusion;
The right pollsters are riding a serious swing and the left pollsters are dragging the average. In reality, I think this election is now very narrow and no wonder Biden is back in his basement.
From the general discussion and the history from the last election, I wonder why people are even looking at the polls. If Donald J does get re-elected the "Biden with a double figures lead" polls are going to be shown to be inaccurate at best and downright biased at worst.

How will these companies get their credibility back? After all the whole concept hinges on people asking a question truthfully.
 
On polling; The right/left leaning pollsters were united, that Trump popularity fell throughout the summer and showed Biden leads of double digits on the average.. Today, the average right leaning Outlier has Trump ahead nationally by a point or more, the left leaning polls have biden around 6-9 points lead AND the average is also 8 points (tell).

At statewide polling not much evidence of swings to Trump by left leaning pollsters to bring down that average. As Morning Consult still have Biden ahead in Texas and actually widening the lead in Florida.

Conclusion;
The right pollsters are riding a serious swing and the left pollsters are dragging the average. In reality, I think this election is now very narrow and no wonder Biden is back in his basement.

Another blinding piece of ‘analysis’

No point in refuting it because you keep making the same mistakes.

Here’s how we can sum up your understanding of surveys and polls, based on your comments over the last few weeks.

 
From the general discussion and the history from the last election, I wonder why people are even looking at the polls. If Donald J does get re-elected the "Biden with a double figures lead" polls are going to be shown to be inaccurate at best and downright biased at worst.

How will these companies get their credibility back? After all the whole concept hinges on people asking a question truthfully.
Switch on the box, or go online and all we've heard for months on end, was how far ahead Biden was, 12-18 points ahead and the election to use a euphemism was a slam dunk.... As a result, I took an interest and you look at the fake polling and the audience lapping it up and that tells you the game of selling a message some people want to hear.

On credibility; I would NOT be at all shocked to watch the Biden 8 point lead drop like a stone towards the weekend, as even the pollsters are forced by reality, to save themselves looking very silly and its my view that as well as clickbait, some pollsters are also trying to prop up the Biden vote by making them feel as if they're really are the point of the spear and the only thing that matters is 'Literally Hitler' statue is toppled and all will be well.

P.S
Make the election very narrow, then a vote for biden becomes your fault.
Make the election a Biden landslide, then a vote for biden is only what everyone is doing and you need to follow the herd.
 
From the general discussion and the history from the last election, I wonder why people are even looking at the polls. If Donald J does get re-elected the "Biden with a double figures lead" polls are going to be shown to be inaccurate at best and downright biased at worst.

How will these companies get their credibility back? After all the whole concept hinges on people asking a question truthfully.

The polls did get it fairly right last time. They gave Clinton a 3% lead and she got about 2.3% lead in the actual vote.
The electoral college votes gave it to Trump, though. (Only the fifth time that has happened).
So Biden could get a 5 or 6 percent lead in the popular vote but lose out on the electoral college votes (apparently only 2 states split the vote depending on the amount of popular votes, the other 48 give all their college votes to the winner regardless of a 51/49 split or whatever).
 
The polls did get it fairly right last time. They gave Clinton a 3% lead and she got about 2.3% lead in the actual vote.
The electoral college votes gave it to Trump, though. (Only the fifth time that has happened).
So Biden could get a 5 or 6 percent lead in the popular vote but lose out on the electoral college votes (apparently only 2 states split the vote depending on the amount of popular votes, the other 48 give all their college votes to the winner regardless of a 51/49 split or whatever).
What was Clinton getting a week, two weeks, a month before ? Ticker is bang on the money to argue that the polls suddenly narrow, as if by magic.

Oh and I thought you felt the US election was a far away land and you had no opinions.
 
What was Clinton getting a week, two weeks, a month before ? Ticker is bang on the money to argue that the polls suddenly narrow, as if by magic.

Oh and I thought you felt the US election was a far away land and you had no opinions.

You got the early shift this morning?
 
From the general discussion and the history from the last election, I wonder why people are even looking at the polls. If Donald J does get re-elected the "Biden with a double figures lead" polls are going to be shown to be inaccurate at best and downright biased at worst.

How will these companies get their credibility back? After all the whole concept hinges on people asking a question truthfully.

You’re quite right and this is the big question in terms of surveys.

There’s always 3 types of survey error, of which one is bias. This can be built-in deliberately or included accidentally.

The polling companies know they have to sort themselves out after 2016 in terms of credibility, although a 95% confidence level in statistics (the normal standard) still means you get it one time in 20.

The best way to do that is to increase your sample size - normally to 99%. But that can mean doubling your sample under some circumstances.

So most major polling agencies use a ‘poll of polls’. This does two things: it can average out biases from different individual polls (so it’s better than cherry-picking the one you like) and it also effectively increases your sample size, thus improving your confidence level.

But there’s still a chance for statistical error, for many reasons. Particularly in ‘too close to call’ situations like the battleground states.

The ‘stated preference’ problem (sometimes called ‘shy Tory’ is well understood) but pollsters can control for that in a number of ways, including anonymity. Also, by working to eliminate bias the effect will balance out. I’m sure if you live in gun-rack country you’d be pretty shy of telling Jonesy that you’re a big fan of Karmala, for example.

Take 538, for example. They gave Trump a 1/3 chance of winning. He won. They weren’t wrong, per se, they reflected what they thought the odds are of him winning. Look at horse racing - the favourite doesn’t always win. If it did, there’d be no point in betting.

But most people don’t understand this, and 538 know their corporate life is on the line. Their website tells how they looked back at their analysis and realised that they got their prediction of odds wrong* because of their own bias. They can’t risk doing that again, and that suggests that, if anything, their current predictions probably err on the side of caution.

* that’s not the same as their polling data (ie what people told them)
 
Switch on the box, or go online and all we've heard for months on end, was how far ahead Biden was, 12-18 points ahead and the election to use a euphemism was a slam dunk.... As a result, I took an interest and you look at the fake polling and the audience lapping it up and that tells you the game of selling a message some people want to hear.

On credibility; I would NOT be at all shocked to watch the Biden 8 point lead drop like a stone towards the weekend, as even the pollsters are forced by reality, to save themselves looking very silly and its my view that as well as clickbait, some pollsters are also trying to prop up the Biden vote by making them feel as if they're really are the point of the spear and the only thing that matters is 'Literally Hitler' statue is toppled and all will be well.

P.S
Make the election very narrow, then a vote for biden becomes your fault.
Make the election a Biden landslide, then a vote for biden is only what everyone is doing and you need to follow the herd.

Oh dear...

‘Fake polls’ = ones I don’t like

‘Polling companies selling a message’ = conspiraloon theory

‘Some pollsters propping up the Biden vote’ = ditto

The PS confuses the role of electioneering with the role of pollsters.
 
I can’t wait to see the look on Trumps face when they march him at the double out of the White House. All they need to do then is get some proper grownups in charge at the Senate and sort out the Supreme Court (simplest just to pack it out with some decent judges who aren’t besotted with imaginary sky pixies) and America can get back on it’s feet and once again be viewed as a sensible leading member of the world community!
 
I can’t wait to see the look on Trumps face when they march him at the double out of the White House. All they need to do then is get some proper grownups in charge at the Senate and sort out the Supreme Court (simplest just to pack it out with some decent judges who aren’t besotted with imaginary sky pixies) and America can get back on it’s feet and once again be viewed as a sensible leading member of the world community!
Alas your idea of packing the court will make sure America is busy dealing with internal conflict, to give the world a 2nd thought. Your line of reasoning is dangerously flawed, and in line with others who know not what they do.
 
Obama will be remembered for many things. But not all of them were wonderful and many downright were just terrible.

ACA
Sequestration
Paris Accord
His war on coal
Taking out OBL
The pivot to the Pacific
Etc, etc

Positives and negatives depending on your personal views and experiences.
Taking out OBL was terrible? Really? Jeez - I know that @Goldbricker was upset that he was removed from the gene pool, but you as well?
Coal - The future is not fossil fuels.
Paris Accord - thinking about more than just yourself.
ACA - For many this was really, really good. For some, not so.
 
Alas your idea of packing the court will make sure America is busy dealing with internal conflict, to give the world a 2nd thought. Your line of reasoning is dangerously flawed, and in line with others who know not what they do.

So the GOP pull an opportunistic stroke and pack the Supreme Court defying their very own convention that that shouldn’t happen because a presidential election is imminent.

They then as expected lose the election And the winning democrat party are expected to fully accept the opportunistic political packing of the Supreme Court with another hard line republican minded judge as being perfectly fine. They are then expected to sit back and watch the Supreme Court begin to roll back various previous legal decisions based on a literal interpretation of the constitution and what it’s intentions were supposed to mean for American society when it was originally written a few hundred years ago.

I think that’s a bit like us saying that Queen Victoria got it right and those sodding kids had better get their arrses and their large chimney sweeping brushes back up those chimneys and get back to work for 16 hours a day six days a week.

I know we’re still expecting them to go hungry but that hopefully will change in the very near future.

I doubt very much that President Biden is actually going to let the GOP still have it’s cake and eat it when he takes over.
 
Top