You do understand if the aggregate of polls is carrying too many sample errors, then yours and 538s mean is too low and the 12 and now 8 point lead is a statistical error and complete fiction ?

In actuality; I suspect the polling mean is around 3% too low and Trump is probably on 48% and Biden 49%. With an expectant swing of at least 1-3% more for trump going into the next week. I would put some money on it, but the bloody bookies seem to grasp probability and assumptions of bias in left leaning pollsters, more than you.

You’re flailing now.

You’ve obviously been frantically googling statistical terms, but what do you understand by ‘sampling errors’? Without google now...clue: there are 3 main ones.

Because the entire point of aggregating polls is to eliminate (or at least reduce) ‘sampling’ errors.

Remember that, without any other knowledge, there’s as much chance of the population mean being higher than the sample mean, as there is of it being lower.

Of course, faced with listening to a survey company whose continued existence as a company depends on them getting it right, or listing to someone who has no competence in statistics, who’s the safe bet? Clue: it’s not you.

Which means we can put all these words from your post (‘suspect’, ‘probably’ and ‘expectant’*) together as actually meaning: you don’t know.

But that’s ok, because nor do I or anyone else. But the statistical analysis suggests that Trump’s odds are currently 13/100.

There will be bias in ‘left leaning’ pollsters, same as there is in right leaning ones like Trafalgar, hence the need, FFS, to look at ‘polls of polls’.

The bookies, like insurance actuaries, have a phenomenal grasp of statistics. Probability theory was developed by two men who wanted to understand ‘games of chance’. What you refuse to grasp is that the odds they offer you are not the same as what they calculate the actual odds to be.

Think of it this way.

If there are two horses in a race. One is a rank outsider. He’s 99/1 against (1% chance). The other - in statistical terms - is 1/99 for (99% chance) because all probabilities must sum to 1. But those aren’t the odds you’d be offered.

Look at any racing card. They never sum to one. It’s why the zero on a roulette wheel is green, too. The reason is because it’s in the discrepancy between the real odds and the statistical odd that the bookie makes his money. This is especially true when there are big one off bets like a cup final or the Grand National.

* I think you mean ‘expected’