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The Trump Presidency...

If Trump wins again I think you are right, things will kick off. Maybe a few weeks of riots in the usual places.

If Biden wins then the right will protest while armed to the teeth. Not sure if they will riot, but it is a risk. Rioting with fire arms is not a good mix and would be a worst case scenario.
If Trump wins the usual suspects will kick off regardless, however if Biden wins fair and square the right won't unless there is credible evidence of voter fraud which seems likely from reports I have seen.
 
If Trump wins the usual suspects will kick off regardless, however if Biden wins fair and square the right won't unless there is credible evidence of voter fraud which seems likely from reports I have seen.

I think the right will stage protests, even if it is a true and just win, as it will be a show of force to make sure POTUS Harris does not ignore them.
 
Any more claims about Trump handling COVID badly, all was fine when St Barry and fauci had the reins duiring H1N1

Hypocrites.


Too scared to hold China to account then, and still now.
 
Good. Now that you’ve apparently grasped the concept of an outlier, what has it done to the ‘mean’?
You do understand if the aggregate of polls is carrying too many sample errors, then yours and 538s mean is too low and the 12 and now 8 point lead is a statistical error and complete fiction ?

In actuality; I suspect the polling mean is around 3% too low and Trump is probably on 48% and Biden 49%. With an expectant swing of at least 1-3% more for trump going into the next week. I would put some money on it, but the bloody bookies seem to grasp probability and assumptions of bias in left leaning pollsters, more than you.
 
It has to be said, the pro-Trump/anti-Biden waffle on this thread does seem to have gone up a notch or two recently. It's almost as if the Trumpettes and trolls seem to realise he's got the skids under him.
 
You do understand if the aggregate of polls is carrying too many sample errors, then yours and 538s mean is too low and the 12 and now 8 point lead is a statistical error and complete fiction ?

In actuality; I suspect the polling mean is around 3% too low and Trump is probably on 48% and Biden 49%. With an expectant swing of at least 1-3% more for trump going into the next week. I would put some money on it, but the bloody bookies seem to grasp probability and assumptions of bias in left leaning pollsters, more than you.

You’re flailing now.

You’ve obviously been frantically googling statistical terms, but what do you understand by ‘sampling errors’? Without google now...clue: there are 3 main ones.

Because the entire point of aggregating polls is to eliminate (or at least reduce) ‘sampling’ errors.

Remember that, without any other knowledge, there’s as much chance of the population mean being higher than the sample mean, as there is of it being lower.

Of course, faced with listening to a survey company whose continued existence as a company depends on them getting it right, or listing to someone who has no competence in statistics, who’s the safe bet? Clue: it’s not you.

Which means we can put all these words from your post (‘suspect’, ‘probably’ and ‘expectant’*) together as actually meaning: you don’t know.

But that’s ok, because nor do I or anyone else. But the statistical analysis suggests that Trump’s odds are currently 13/100.

There will be bias in ‘left leaning’ pollsters, same as there is in right leaning ones like Trafalgar, hence the need, FFS, to look at ‘polls of polls’.

The bookies, like insurance actuaries, have a phenomenal grasp of statistics. Probability theory was developed by two men who wanted to understand ‘games of chance’. What you refuse to grasp is that the odds they offer you are not the same as what they calculate the actual odds to be.

Think of it this way.

If there are two horses in a race. One is a rank outsider. He’s 99/1 against (1% chance). The other - in statistical terms - is 1/99 for (99% chance) because all probabilities must sum to 1. But those aren’t the odds you’d be offered.

Look at any racing card. They never sum to one. It’s why the zero on a roulette wheel is green, too. The reason is because it’s in the discrepancy between the real odds and the statistical odd that the bookie makes his money. This is especially true when there are big one off bets like a cup final or the Grand National.


* I think you mean ‘expected’
 
I think the right will stage protests, even if it is a true and just win, as it will be a show of force to make sure POTUS Harris does not ignore them.
Civil Disobedience will be the starting point. I don’t feel inclined to go with an Un Constitutional suicide pact. If the blue state plan is the new national model that is a hard pass. I will vote for those who will oppose it and refuse to go along with DC.
The Dems are going to have one hell of a pickle.
 
It has to be said, the pro-Trump/anti-Biden waffle on this thread does seem to have gone up a notch or two recently. It's almost as if the Trumpettes and trolls seem to realise he's got the skids under him.

You for got the anti Trump/ anti Biden brigade. Role on 2024 when the US will get some decent contenders.
 
The only odds offered by bookies that reflect their opinion is the SP.

After that it simply reflects where the money has been placed since the market opened.
 
Civil Disobedience will be the starting point. I don’t feel inclined to go with an Un Constitutional suicide pact. If the blue state plan is the new national model that is a hard pass. I will vote for those who will oppose it and refuse to go along with DC.
The Dems are going to have one hell of a pickle.

The US is fucked if neither side will abide by a democratic result.
 
You’re flailing now.

You’ve obviously been frantically googling statistical terms, but what do you understand by ‘sampling errors’? Without google now...clue: there are 3 main ones.

Because the entire point of aggregating polls is to eliminate (or at least reduce) ‘sampling’ errors.

Remember that, without any other knowledge, there’s as much chance of the population mean being higher than the sample mean, as there is of it being lower.

Of course, faced with listening to a survey company whose continued existence as a company depends on them getting it right, or listing to someone who has no competence in statistics, who’s the safe bet? Clue: it’s not you.

Which means we can put all these words from your post (‘suspect’, ‘probably’ and ‘expectant’*) together as actually meaning: you don’t know.

But that’s ok, because nor do I or anyone else. But the statistical analysis suggests that Trump’s odds are currently 13/100.

There will be bias in ‘left leaning’ pollsters, same as there is in right leaning ones like Trafalgar, hence the need, FFS, to look at ‘polls of polls’.

The bookies, like insurance actuaries, have a phenomenal grasp of statistics. Probability theory was developed by two men who wanted to understand ‘games of chance’. What you refuse to grasp is that the odds they offer you are not the same as what they calculate the actual odds to be.

Think of it this way.

If there are two horses in a race. One is a rank outsider. He’s 99/1 against (1% chance). The other - in statistical terms - is 1/99 for (99% chance) because all probabilities must sum to 1. But those aren’t the odds you’d be offered.

Look at any racing card. They never sum to one. It’s why the zero on a roulette wheel is green, too. The reason is because it’s in the discrepancy between the real odds and the statistical odd that the bookie makes his money. This is especially true when there are big one off bets like a cup final or the Grand National.


* I think you mean ‘expected’
We could go around and around the houses, but I stuck my neck out a fortnight ago and stated that Trump would win the election, by a margin slightly better than 2016 and explained why the polls are wrong(samples are wrong) and your still arguing the polling mean and aggregate is right and the probability of a Biden victory is x(8 ) and trump y(1), if you believe in the polling the result speaks for itself.

On flailing; you've offered nothing to flail at, as you have never at any point given me an honest take on what you believe the result to be..... Be a man, go on and stick your neck out with a prediction ? at the end of the day, this is a silly forum that is built around opinion and you don't have one.
 
I am gnashing my teeth. The difference though is that I will have to live through a Biden disaster while you won’t. So it makes this election a bit more personal for those who have skin in the game.
I don't, but the in-laws* do.

Both registered Republicans, voting for the Dems for the first time in their lives.

*and a number of friends.
With the eye of Sauron constantly upon him, the White House is probably the most honest 4 years of his life. 4 years vs almost 50 in politics. You tell me about who has had longer to pull some less than stellar stunts.

Nice deflection.
 
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Civil Disobedience will be the starting point. I don’t feel inclined to go with an Un Constitutional suicide pact. If the blue state plan is the new national model that is a hard pass. I will vote for those who will oppose it and refuse to go along with DC.
The Dems are going to have one hell of a pickle.
IF Biden won, his presidency has already being soiled by the laptop and the 4 year refusal to accept Trump as a legitimate president... The Republicans will simply adopt the other sides tactics and this time the media as the defenders of the presidency will portray them as the far right and the fault line will deepen.
 
Civil Disobedience will be the starting point. I don’t feel inclined to go with an Un Constitutional suicide pact. If the blue state plan is the new national model that is a hard pass. I will vote for those who will oppose it and refuse to go along with DC.
The Dems are going to have one hell of a pickle.
Civil disobedience by BLM protestors/Liberals:
Jonesy: Disgusting creatures, they shouldn't break the law. They should probably be shot.

Civil disobedience because Jonesy doesn't like the Dems:
tenor.gif
 
 
We could go around and around the houses, but I stuck my neck out a fortnight ago and stated that Trump would win the election, by a margin slightly better than 2016 and explained why the polls are wrong(samples are wrong) and your still arguing the polling mean and aggregate is right and the probability of a Biden victory is x(8 ) and trump y(1), if you believe in the polling the result speaks for itself.

On flailing; you've offered nothing to flail at, as you have never at any point given me an honest take on what you believe the result to be..... Be a man, go on and stick your neck out with a prediction ? at the end of the day, this is a silly forum that is built around opinion and you don't have one.

Right, so you can’t actually explain what ‘sampling error’ means. Thought not. Let’s add that to the list of logical statistical terms you don’t understand (but like to use).

You didn’t ‘explain’ why the polls or the samples are wrong, expect by using a circular argument that they must be wrong because they didn’t agree with what you thought.

I think the results of a ‘poll of polls’ (or indeed several aggregate polls) is a teensy-weensy bit more credible.

You are flailing...really...you’re doing it again by trying to deflect this onto me. It’s not about who I think will win, my posts have always been about trying to stop your excruciating attempts at ‘analysis’. I note that whenever you’re called on a particular point (such as why polls on voting may not give the same as a poll on approval), rather than recognise the explanation you tend to simply deflect the discussion- ‘switch targets right’.

I’ve also made it clear about my ‘opinion’ of Trump. However I don’t need to make a prediction;* I’m happy to follow professionals who have a marked interest in getting it right. So I’m happy with 13/100. Or 1:8. Whichever you prefer.

If you stop büllshit attempts at statistical analysis I’ll stop calling you on it.

* which as someone who’s conducted surveys professionally I wouldn’t do unless I had the means to conduct a poll of my own.
 
Trump has got the Biden porkies blasting on the big screens at his "peaceful protest"

@ starts at -9:30

 
Right, so you can’t actually explain what ‘sampling error’ means. Thought not. Let’s add that to the list of logical statistical terms you don’t understand (but like to use).

You didn’t ‘explain’ why the polls or the samples are wrong, expect by using a circular argument that they must be wrong because they didn’t agree with what you thought.

I think the results of a ‘poll of polls’ (or indeed several aggregate polls) is a teensy-weensy bit more credible.

You are flailing...really...you’re doing it again by trying to deflect this onto me. It’s not about who I think will win, my posts have always been about trying to stop your excruciating attempts at ‘analysis’. I note that whenever you’re called on a particular point (such as why polls on voting may not give the same as a poll on approval), rather than recognise the explanation you tend to simply deflect the discussion- ‘switch targets right’.

I’ve also made it clear about my ‘opinion’ of Trump. However I don’t need to make a prediction;* I’m happy to follow professionals who have a marked interest in getting it right. So I’m happy with 13/100. Or 1:8. Whichever you prefer.

If you stop büllshit attempts at statistical analysis I’ll stop calling you on it.

* which as someone who’s conducted surveys professionally I wouldn’t do unless I had the means to conduct a poll of my own.
If the sampling is wrong, your poll is wrong.
If enough polls are sampled wrong, your aggregate is wrong and the outliers will be more pronounced(your seeing that now as we get closer to the day).
If your sampling, aggregate and your mean is also wrong. Then your professionals are wrong and set for another historic shellacking from an angry media.
 

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