bob_the_bomb
LE

On black voting demographics:
blackdemographics.com
The website gives a good summary of black voting history and the switch from supporting Republicans (Lincoln) to Democrats (Kennedy).
These are solid, descriptive statistics.
Since Kennedy the vote has been around 10-15% Republican.
Electing the first black president in 2008 (unsurprisingly) takes that to an all time low of 4%.
Now I’ll just introduce the concept of ‘regression to the mean’. Something that all people with any education in statistics will have heard of but isn’t something that most people would have heard of.
Basically, it’s completely within statistical norms for the black Republican vote to rebound from the unprecedented low of 4% to something in the 10-15% range.
20% would be possible but statistically unlikely (though not impossible) without another explanatory variable (like a black middle class reaction to BLM, for example).
But, given that we are talking about black and (normally) democratic ‘swing’ voters here, it will be interesting to see what effect having Harris on the ticket has on that exact demographic.
en.m.wikipedia.org
en.m.wikipedia.org

POLITICS | BlackDemographics.com
Black Party Affiliation African Americans have a history in both major political parties of the United States. After the Civil War almost all Blacks considered them-selves Republicans. It was the Republican Party that was started by abolitionists and of course the party of President Abraham...

The website gives a good summary of black voting history and the switch from supporting Republicans (Lincoln) to Democrats (Kennedy).
These are solid, descriptive statistics.
Since Kennedy the vote has been around 10-15% Republican.
Electing the first black president in 2008 (unsurprisingly) takes that to an all time low of 4%.
Now I’ll just introduce the concept of ‘regression to the mean’. Something that all people with any education in statistics will have heard of but isn’t something that most people would have heard of.
Basically, it’s completely within statistical norms for the black Republican vote to rebound from the unprecedented low of 4% to something in the 10-15% range.
20% would be possible but statistically unlikely (though not impossible) without another explanatory variable (like a black middle class reaction to BLM, for example).
But, given that we are talking about black and (normally) democratic ‘swing’ voters here, it will be interesting to see what effect having Harris on the ticket has on that exact demographic.

Descriptive statistics - Wikipedia


Regression toward the mean - Wikipedia
