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The Trump Presidency...

I refer you to post #43473 by my learned Geordie* colleague.













* TBH I never thought I’d be using those two words in the same sentence :)
By the book he is right, and Bernie is nothing like what is to be found in other parts of the world. But he embraces enough leftist concepts to make him a bit of a heretic for much of my country, as we are a bit to the right of Europe on most everything.

If I can't own Black Rifles and sip on Pumpkin Spice lattes, I don't want anything to do with it.
 
I wonder where you’re getting your 45% from? You have form for cherry picking polls that suit your own bias.

What does ‘incumbent and expectation’ mean?

I think you might be right about the mail in vote - it certainly would explain why The Donald is trying very hard to put obstacles in the way of Mail-in voting.

“Trump looks a raving certainty for me” just about sums up your confirmation bias.

There are people in each side who will never change; this election is all about the swing voters.

Personally I’m not sure either way.

But, on your point on ‘last minute falls’, it will be interesting to see what a $750 annual tax bill does to public opinion. I also wonder what a ‘quarter of a million COVID deaths’ will do.
Analysis of Data:-
1. The previous 2016 Trump result.
2. Wikipedia - The US polling two-way graph clearly shows between February - April 2020, an average of 45% for Trump, with a 5% points average for Undecided. Then the rising Biden poll numbers, coincide with an increase in undecided which suppresses Trumps numbers and that is presumably down to covid.
3. Rasmussen report polling shows when the undecided figure drops, Trumps numbers go up and not Bidens, suggesting that polling company is plugged into the undecided better than others.
4. Trump is the incumbent(current President) and can expect to pick up a few % points towards polling day and on that basis I predict Trump will likely get around 47% points and win the election.

True I have a bias, but so do you and only one of us can be right about the data, as this is a bit of educated guesswork and broad assumptions.. On hurdles, it works both ways and Biden needs to get over one before election day to have a chance of turning this around.
 

offog

LE
My thoughts are that people don't vote for Trump, they vote AGAINST the democrats and what they represent.

In much the same way I didn't vote for BoJo (best PM ever, btw), I voted against the Labour party and what they represent (the middle class woke).
Well only 25k did vote for him which was about 52% of the constituency so unless you live in that area you will not have voted for him like most of 30odd Million other votes.
 
Well only 25k did vote for him which was about 52% of the constituency so unless you live in that area you will not have voted for him like most of 30odd Million other votes.

I understand how our constitution works; well to a point anyway.

But I also understood that by voting for my local Tory MP, that it was also a vote for Boris.

And two-fingers up to the middle-woke-types.

No matter what hairs you want to split, it worked.

1b.jpg
 
Analysis of Data:-
1. The previous 2016 Trump result.
2. Wikipedia - The US polling two-way graph clearly shows between February - April 2020, an average of 45% for Trump, with a 5% points average for Undecided. Then the rising Biden poll numbers, coincide with an increase in undecided which suppresses Trumps numbers and that is presumably down to covid.
3. Rasmussen report polling shows when the undecided figure drops, Trumps numbers go up and not Bidens, suggesting that polling company is plugged into the undecided better than others.
4. Trump is the incumbent(current President) and can expect to pick up a few % points towards polling day and on that basis I predict Trump will likely get around 47% points and win the election.

True I have a bias, but so do you and only one of us can be right about the data, as this is a bit of educated guesswork and broad assumptions.. On hurdles, it works both ways and Biden needs to get over one before election day to have a chance of turning this around.

1. Doesn’t tell us much, statistically speaking.

2. The ‘rising Biden numbers’ are a positive for Trump?

3. Confirmation bias.

4. Why does ‘incumbent advantage’ work in political elections? Why is it significant for Trump?

5. “... only one of us can be right about the data, as this is a bit of educated guesswork and broad assumptions...” Read that again.

There is a big difference between ‘preference’ and ‘bias’. Bias is when you let your preferences skew your interpretation of the data. One of your points might be correct though.
 
Donny 'coke head' Jr. Cry's about the NYT Publishing Trump Tax Details To Give Biden ‘Attack Line’ Before Debate.
"It's not fair to my pappy" said Jr.
The crack head accused the New York Times of deliberately releasing its bombshell report on the President’s tax avoidance to help Democratic candidate Joe Biden ahead of the presidential debate on Tuesday. "It's not fair to my pappy" said Jr.

1601322781372.png
 
Incoming whataboutery in 5,4,3...

Given that Biden already claims that black Americans always vote Democrat (and the stats mostly back this up) it's not really a surprise that Trump's team would try and discourage black Democrat voters from going out to vote?
What other data analysis did the data breach give?
 

offog

LE
Donny 'coke head' Jr. Cry's about the NYT Publishing Trump Tax Details To Give Biden ‘Attack Line’ Before Debate.
"It's not fair to my pappy" said Jr.
The crack head accused the New York Times of deliberately releasing its bombshell report on the President’s tax avoidance to help Democratic candidate Joe Biden ahead of the presidential debate on Tuesday. "It's not fair to my pappy" said Jr.

View attachment 508068
This will have no impact on his voters as we have already seen, they like him sticking it to the government even if Trump is the government.

What they have difficulty with is that he is such a bad business man that even when the the times were good he couldn't make money. We all know he is not as rich as he said he is. How they think he is going to fix the country when he can't show a profit running a casino is beyond extraordinary.
 
1. Doesn’t tell us much, statistically speaking.

2. The ‘rising Biden numbers’ are a positive for Trump?

3. Confirmation bias.

4. Why does ‘incumbent advantage’ work in political elections? Why is it significant for Trump?

5. “... only one of us can be right about the data, as this is a bit of educated guesswork and broad assumptions...” Read that again.

There is a big difference between ‘preference’ and ‘bias’. Bias is when you let your preferences skew your interpretation of the data. One of your points might be correct though.
We know for a fact: that in March, Trump was on 45% and the undecided on 5%..... Since then, the undecided has risen and the Biden numbers have gone up, but only as a proportion of the remaining vote and Rasmusson and a few others polling at odds with the other pollsters all show evidence the undecided will swing back to Trump, because they're never supported Biden.

If I am right, then it will come as a big shock to some and at least I have given you the heads up, to stem your own personal tears. Lets get a trade deal done and move on from this painful personal attacks.
 
He can't show a profit running a casino is beyond extraordinary.
Or Golf courses.
A 2016 Reuters examination of his golf courses found that Trump had invested around $1 billion building a portfolio of assets which were worth as little as half that value and reportedly losing $300 million a year.

So either he is under reporting income and defrauding the IRS or chumps 'best in the world' golf resorts are actual steaming piles of dung heaps.

While the Truppits defend his actions as 'well he's only using the rules and loopholes to pay less income tax' they dismiss the fact that he gave the rich another windfall back in 2017 which also benefited himself.

No wonder he donates his meager salary when he scooped $7 million from his own tax deal.
 
We know for a fact: that in March, Trump was on 45% and the undecided on 5%..... Since then, the undecided has risen and the Biden numbers have gone up, but only as a proportion of the remaining vote and Rasmusson and a few others polling at odds with the other pollsters all show evidence the undecided will swing back to Trump, because they're never supported Biden.

If I am right, then it will come as a big shock to some and at least I have given you the heads up, to stem your own personal tears. Lets get a trade deal done and move on from this painful personal attacks.

It’s a two horse race.

If Biden’s numbers have gone up (your words) and the undecided have gone up (your words), then those numbers can only have come from one place.

No tears here...
 
You're probably aware that he is subject to a long running audit, focusing in part on the legitimacy or otherwise of a tax write-off of tens of millions.
Being subject to an audit is NOT a finding of Guilt, I was audited in 2009 with no finding of guilt

A Larger question is the democrats are whining about his taxes, yet those stupid bastards VOTED in the tax laws trump used to his advantage. Bidens been in DC for 47 years yet only now whining about taxes
 

offog

LE
Or Golf courses.
A 2016 Reuters examination of his golf courses found that Trump had invested around $1 billion building a portfolio of assets which were worth as little as half that value and reportedly losing $300 million a year.

So either he is under reporting income and defrauding the IRS or chumps 'best in the world' golf resorts are actual steaming piles of dung heaps.

While the Truppits defend his actions as 'well he's only using the rules and loopholes to pay less income tax' they dismiss the fact that he gave the rich another windfall back in 2017 which also benefited himself.

No wonder he donates his meager salary when he scooped $7 million from his own tax deal.
Which would explain why he wanted the UK open at his course.

I wonder if the SNP will be looking into his tax returns for his golf courses?

What was that joke about how to lose a million, buy a football team or in Trumps case a golf course. But then again he is a true socialist and spend other peoples money not his own.
 
Being subject to an audit is NOT a finding of Guilt, I was audited in 2009 with no finding of guilt

A Larger question is the democrats are whining about his taxes, yet those stupid bastards VOTED in the tax laws trump used to his advantage. Bidens been in DC for 47 years yet only now whining about taxes

Yup, Obama changed the rules leading to Trump getting a $73 million refund

 

offog

LE
Being subject to an audit is NOT a finding of Guilt, I was audited in 2009 with no finding of guilt

A Larger question is the democrats are whining about his taxes, yet those stupid bastards VOTED in the tax laws trump used to his advantage. Bidens been in DC for 47 years yet only now whining about taxes
You should be the one whining about his tax as the more he dose not pay the more you have to. So tell us are you paying more tax now than 2016 or don't you care (how very socialist of you).
 

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