By the book he is right, and Bernie is nothing like what is to be found in other parts of the world. But he embraces enough leftist concepts to make him a bit of a heretic for much of my country, as we are a bit to the right of Europe on most everything.I refer you to post #43473 by my learned Geordie* colleague.
* TBH I never thought I’d be using those two words in the same sentence
Analysis of Data:-I wonder where you’re getting your 45% from? You have form for cherry picking polls that suit your own bias.
What does ‘incumbent and expectation’ mean?
I think you might be right about the mail in vote - it certainly would explain why The Donald is trying very hard to put obstacles in the way of Mail-in voting.
“Trump looks a raving certainty for me” just about sums up your confirmation bias.
There are people in each side who will never change; this election is all about the swing voters.
Personally I’m not sure either way.
But, on your point on ‘last minute falls’, it will be interesting to see what a $750 annual tax bill does to public opinion. I also wonder what a ‘quarter of a million COVID deaths’ will do.
Well only 25k did vote for him which was about 52% of the constituency so unless you live in that area you will not have voted for him like most of 30odd Million other votes.My thoughts are that people don't vote for Trump, they vote AGAINST the democrats and what they represent.
In much the same way I didn't vote for BoJo (best PM ever, btw), I voted against the Labour party and what they represent (the middle class woke).
Well only 25k did vote for him which was about 52% of the constituency so unless you live in that area you will not have voted for him like most of 30odd Million other votes.
Analysis of Data:-
1. The previous 2016 Trump result.
2. Wikipedia - The US polling two-way graph clearly shows between February - April 2020, an average of 45% for Trump, with a 5% points average for Undecided. Then the rising Biden poll numbers, coincide with an increase in undecided which suppresses Trumps numbers and that is presumably down to covid.
3. Rasmussen report polling shows when the undecided figure drops, Trumps numbers go up and not Bidens, suggesting that polling company is plugged into the undecided better than others.
4. Trump is the incumbent(current President) and can expect to pick up a few % points towards polling day and on that basis I predict Trump will likely get around 47% points and win the election.
True I have a bias, but so do you and only one of us can be right about the data, as this is a bit of educated guesswork and broad assumptions.. On hurdles, it works both ways and Biden needs to get over one before election day to have a chance of turning this around.
Incoming whataboutery in 5,4,3...
This will have no impact on his voters as we have already seen, they like him sticking it to the government even if Trump is the government.Donny 'coke head' Jr. Cry's about the NYT Publishing Trump Tax Details To Give Biden ‘Attack Line’ Before Debate.The crack head accused the New York Times of deliberately releasing its bombshell report on the President’s tax avoidance to help Democratic candidate Joe Biden ahead of the presidential debate on Tuesday. "It's not fair to my pappy" said Jr.
"It's not fair to my pappy" said Jr.
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We know for a fact: that in March, Trump was on 45% and the undecided on 5%..... Since then, the undecided has risen and the Biden numbers have gone up, but only as a proportion of the remaining vote and Rasmusson and a few others polling at odds with the other pollsters all show evidence the undecided will swing back to Trump, because they're never supported Biden.1. Doesn’t tell us much, statistically speaking.
2. The ‘rising Biden numbers’ are a positive for Trump?
3. Confirmation bias.
4. Why does ‘incumbent advantage’ work in political elections? Why is it significant for Trump?
5. “... only one of us can be right about the data, as this is a bit of educated guesswork and broad assumptions...” Read that again.
There is a big difference between ‘preference’ and ‘bias’. Bias is when you let your preferences skew your interpretation of the data. One of your points might be correct though.
Or Golf courses.He can't show a profit running a casino is beyond extraordinary.
We know for a fact: that in March, Trump was on 45% and the undecided on 5%..... Since then, the undecided has risen and the Biden numbers have gone up, but only as a proportion of the remaining vote and Rasmusson and a few others polling at odds with the other pollsters all show evidence the undecided will swing back to Trump, because they're never supported Biden.
If I am right, then it will come as a big shock to some and at least I have given you the heads up, to stem your own personal tears. Lets get a trade deal done and move on from this painful personal attacks.
Being subject to an audit is NOT a finding of Guilt, I was audited in 2009 with no finding of guiltYou're probably aware that he is subject to a long running audit, focusing in part on the legitimacy or otherwise of a tax write-off of tens of millions.
Which would explain why he wanted the UK open at his course.Or Golf courses.
A 2016 Reuters examination of his golf courses found that Trump had invested around $1 billion building a portfolio of assets which were worth as little as half that value and reportedly losing $300 million a year.
So either he is under reporting income and defrauding the IRS or chumps 'best in the world' golf resorts are actual steaming piles of dung heaps.
While the Truppits defend his actions as 'well he's only using the rules and loopholes to pay less income tax' they dismiss the fact that he gave the rich another windfall back in 2017 which also benefited himself.
No wonder he donates his meager salary when he scooped $7 million from his own tax deal.
Being subject to an audit is NOT a finding of Guilt, I was audited in 2009 with no finding of guilt
A Larger question is the democrats are whining about his taxes, yet those stupid bastards VOTED in the tax laws trump used to his advantage. Bidens been in DC for 47 years yet only now whining about taxes