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The Trump Presidency...

Can we use my political perspective?

In that case, let’s start with that well known leftie, Genghis Khan :)

 
I bet he was conservative in his youth. Then it all went down hill once he hit middle age.

It’s normally the other way round, as Lloyd George once apparently said:


“A young man who isn’t a socialist hasn’t got a heart; an old man who is a socialist hasn’t got a head*”

Of course, in the discussions about American politicians, very few (stand fast Bernie Sanders) are socialists.

*we have our own private ARRSE elderly socialist of course; however, I don’t want to invoke O’Flammenkeks as we already have enough moon howling on this thread.
 
If the pollsters are ‘getting it wrong’, how do you know?
I don't watch the Main Steam Media - I get my news from other sources. I have seen Trump rallies vs Biden rallies and the dems are panicking like hell just now - being the Track record of Trump is so good etc. Also did you watch the DNC and the RNC? the RNC gave a message of hope, where the DNC consisted of 'orange man bad', Also you have the riots - defund the police etc from the democrats & the Republicans are the party of law and order. People like law and order. All the people that voted for Trump in 2016 are still going to vote for him - a lot of the people that voted for the Dems in 2016 are now voting for Trump. The police have endorsed Trump, the military love him., the farmers love him, The writing is on the wall. Trump 2020 all the way.
 
I don't watch the Main Steam Media - I get my news from other sources. I have seen Trump rallies vs Biden rallies and the dems are panicking like hell just now - being the Track record of Trump is so good etc. Also did you watch the DNC and the RNC? the RNC gave a message of hope, where the DNC consisted of 'orange man bad', Also you have the riots - defund the police etc from the democrats & the Republicans are the party of law and order. People like law and order. All the people that voted for Trump in 2016 are still going to vote for him - a lot of the people that voted for the Dems in 2016 are now voting for Trump. The police have endorsed Trump, the military love him., the farmers love him, The writing is on the wall. Trump 2020 all the way.

Right then, so you don’t know.
 
I don't watch the Main Steam Media - I get my news from other sources. I have seen Trump rallies vs Biden rallies and the dems are panicking like hell just now - being the Track record of Trump is so good etc. Also did you watch the DNC and the RNC? the RNC gave a message of hope, where the DNC consisted of 'orange man bad', Also you have the riots - defund the police etc from the democrats & the Republicans are the party of law and order. People like law and order. All the people that voted for Trump in 2016 are still going to vote for him - a lot of the people that voted for the Dems in 2016 are now voting for Trump. The police have endorsed Trump, the military love him., the farmers love him, The writing is on the wall. Trump 2020 all the way.
Bottom line - look at wikipedia and the polling and it clearly shows when the undecided drops to 5% (February - April 2020) then Trumps vote rises to 45%. So a person willing to say they're would vote trump, is hardly likely to switch to Biden given the distance between them.

Analysis:-
1. Any pollster reporting Trump on less than 45% is way wrong.
2. Incumbent and expectation is he will shave a few points come election day and its easily 50/50 on the day.
3. The mail in vote will be expected to give Biden a slight lead, but likely less clear than hillary and a trump win looks a racing certainity for me, barring a fall at the last fence for trump.
 
It’s normally the other way round, as Lloyd George once apparently said:


“A young man who isn’t a socialist hasn’t got a heart; an old man who is a socialist hasn’t got a head*”

Of course, in the discussions about American politicians, very few (stand fast Bernie Sanders) are socialists.

*we have our own private ARRSE elderly socialist of course; however, I don’t want to invoke O’Flammenkeks as we already have enough moon howling on this thread.

I do wonder if it is really age that plays any part when it comes to changes in political and social stances, or say life events.
Have a few family members and mates come out as gay and then you soften your heart on those stances, because what if you have a child that is gay? I have a friend who was told to disown his child by the Catholic Church because his son is a homosexual, and that is a pretty $hitty thing to tell a parent.

Or say you marry a woman is more Liberal than you and over the years you both kinda reach an equilibrium and kinda balance each other out.

Or my not so cynical views on church leadership and their do as I say not as I do mentality, or attitude towards money and the sudden about change the church will make when it comes to financial priorities when it means expanding the facilitates over helping those who really need it.


Bugsy however would be the recruiting tool of choice and I wish he could speak for the Democrats on live TV and show the country this is what the Bernie/AOC wing of the party wants to push the country to.
 
Bottom line - look at wikipedia and the polling and it clearly shows when the undecided drops to 5% (February - April 2020) then Trumps vote rises to 45%. So a person willing to say they're would vote trump, is hardly likely to switch to Biden given the distance between them.

Analysis:-
1. Any pollster reporting Trump on less than 45% is way wrong.
2. Incumbent and expectation is he will shave a few points come election day and its easily 50/50 on the day.
3. The mail in vote will be expected to give Biden a slight lead, but likely less clear than hillary and a trump win looks a racing certainity for me, barring a fall at the last fence for trump.

I wonder where you’re getting your 45% from? You have form for cherry picking polls that suit your own bias.

What does ‘incumbent and expectation’ mean?

I think you might be right about the mail in vote - it certainly would explain why The Donald is trying very hard to put obstacles in the way of Mail-in voting.

“Trump looks a raving certainty for me” just about sums up your confirmation bias.

There are people in each side who will never change; this election is all about the swing voters.

Personally I’m not sure either way.

But, on your point on ‘last minute falls’, it will be interesting to see what a $750 annual tax bill does to public opinion. I also wonder what a ‘quarter of a million COVID deaths’ will do.
 
Net figure is what counts.

Paid, then refunded.

but, you agree he still *paid* $98 million right?

even if it was later refunded under the refund rules that Obamaman introduced, he still paid it.

And your first link makes no mention of anyone denying Trump was subject to an IRS audit.

'He says that he has but won' t show us anything to prove it' - the inference is clear.
 
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Of course, in the discussions about American politicians, very few (stand fast Bernie Sanders) are socialists.

Bernie's not a socialist, even if he calls himself one.

He doesn't want the US to be like the old Soviet Union, he wants it to be more like Sweden. Is Sweden a socialist country? Not really, just certain aspects of it, like it's health care system.
 
But, on your point on ‘last minute falls’, it will be interesting to see what a $750 annual tax bill does to public opinion. I also wonder what a ‘quarter of a million COVID deaths’ will do.

My thoughts are that people don't vote for Trump, they vote AGAINST the democrats and what they represent.

In much the same way I didn't vote for BoJo (best PM ever, btw), I voted against the Labour party and what they represent (the middle class woke).
 
I do wonder if it is really age that plays any part when it comes to changes in political and social stances, or say life events.

It's easy to want to share everything when you have little and others have things. Once you have your own stuff, you don't see why you should share it with those who haven't worked for their own yet.
 
It's easy to want to share everything when you have little and others have things. Once you have your own stuff, you don't see why you should share it with those who haven't worked for their own yet.

I think it depends on the relationship.

If it is with strangers yes I agree with you.

Family and close mates not as much.

Hence why "socialism" will work in a familial or clan based organization, but fails at the city and nation state level.
 
but, you agree he still *paid* $98 million right?

I can see where you're coming from, but the net effect is that he didn't pay it.

Neither did the UK send the EU £350m pw.

even if it was later refunded under the refund rules that Obamaman introduced, he still paid it.

Obama introduced the rules?

'He says that he has but won' t show us anything to prove it' - the inference is clear.

So nobody has said Trump was never subject to an IRS audit...
 
In much the same way I didn't vote for BoJo (best PM ever, btw),

I particularly admire his leadership in the abolition of Slavery, abolition of the Corn Laws; his decisive recapturing of the Falkland Islands and the astonishing efforts he put into maintaining resistance against the Nazi hordes during a very dark time.
 
Bernie's not a socialist, even if he calls himself one.

He doesn't want the US to be like the old Soviet Union, he wants it to be more like Sweden. Is Sweden a socialist country? Not really, just certain aspects of it, like it's health care system.

You’re quite right. That Bernie is seen as ‘XLR’ by many people on here shows how far to the right is the ‘centre ground’ of American politics.
 
My thoughts are that people don't vote for Trump, they vote AGAINST the democrats and what they represent.

In much the same way I didn't vote for BoJo (best PM ever, btw), I voted against the Labour party and what they represent (the middle class woke).

It’s quite a common approach: the French certainly vote against the people they dislike the most.
 

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