The Role of Syria and Iran

#1
Hizballah clears nearly all major policy decisions with Iran’s clerical leadership, and it is hard to believe that the Lebanese terrorist group would not have solicited Tehran’s blessing and support before making such a risky move. Doing so at this time, moreover, serves Iran’s interest by diverting attention from the ongoing diplomatic standoff over Iran’s nuclear program and the referral of this matter to the UN Security Council.

Syria also stands to gain from the current crisis. By hosting a news conference this week for Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashal in which he proclaimed himself the sole interlocutor for efforts to free captured Israeli soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad sought to underscore his country’s importance to any effort to solve this crisis, and his determination to use it to extricate Syria from its international isolation. Hizballah’s gambit provides Syria with another opportunity to advance this agenda.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=553
 
#2
Iran is the puppet master pulling the strings of the players on the Israeli front. Syria is Iran's client state which provides the logistics base for the terror groups Hezbollah operating out of southern Lebanon and Hamas in the west bank and Gaza. Iran gives Hezbollah about $100m a year to support its operations as well as providing training and weapons. Iran's goal is to spark an islamic crusade against Israel, which they hope will take some of the heat off of their nuclear program.

Unless the Lebanese Army moves into southern Israel to oust Hezbollah then the Israelis will do it. If they do that then I would expect the Israeli army to drive into the Bekaa Valley to destroy the terrorist training bases, perhaps even a drive on Damascus. Syria needs to be hit and hit hard an object lesson to its patron Iran.
 
#3
Iran is the puppet master pulling the strings of the players on the Israeli front. Syria is Iran's client state which provides the logistics base for the terror groups Hezbollah operating out of southern Lebanon and Hamas in the west bank and Gaza. Iran gives Hezbollah about $100m a year to support its operations as well as providing training and weapons. Iran's goal is to spark an islamic crusade against Israel, which they hope will take some of the heat off of their nuclear program.

Unless the Lebanese Army moves into southern Israel to oust Hezbollah then the Israelis will do it. If they do that then I would expect the Israeli army to drive into the Bekaa Valley to destroy the terrorist training bases, perhaps even a drive on Damascus. Syria needs to be hit and hit hard an object lesson to its patron Iran
Lets us not forget their Russian and Chinese backing
 
#4
NEO_CON said:
Iran is the puppet master pulling the strings of the players on the Israeli front. Syria is Iran's client state which provides the logistics base for the terror groups Hezbollah operating out of southern Lebanon and Hamas in the west bank and Gaza. Iran gives Hezbollah about $100m a year to support its operations as well as providing training and weapons. Iran's goal is to spark an islamic crusade against Israel, which they hope will take some of the heat off of their nuclear program.

Unless the Lebanese Army moves into southern Israel to oust Hezbollah then the Israelis will do it. If they do that then I would expect the Israeli army to drive into the Bekaa Valley to destroy the terrorist training bases, perhaps even a drive on Damascus. Syria needs to be hit and hit hard an object lesson to its patron Iran
Lets us not forget with Russian and Chinese backing
Thats right they're both thumbing their noses at you.

The question is, what are you Yanks going to do about it?

Its all very well priming your attack dog Israel but its claws only reach so far.
 
#5
Thats right they're both thumbing their noses at you.

The question is, what are you Yanks going to do about it?

Its all very well priming your attack dog Israel but its claws only reach so far.
I glad to see your back. Your seething hatred of the US, Israel and others is bringing about a little refreshing honesty on your part. I do think it is far more than just thumbing their nose at people. China and Russia are using North Korea and Iran as proxies, Iran and Syria are using Hamas and Hezbollah as proxies.

What would I do First I would ask China to reign in its clients North Korea and Iran drastically. If they didn't I would start putting trade tariffs on Chinese goods.
 
#6
So far the Israelis are reacting predictably and just as the Arabs would want them to. What a large chunk of the world sees is Israel bombing the crap out of two neighbouring democratic states using completely disproportionate force. This helps underline some of our enemies major arguments against us - that the West is not interested in democracy and that Israel is the problem.

It also helps our enemies in that if Israel pushes much harder it will destroy the apparatus of state in its neighbours. At that point the states lose the ability to control their peoples actions and the ability of the Israelis to influence their behaviour disappears - well, unless they resort to mass murder or mass murder by proxy. Of course the usual suspects will move in, provide arms and support to allow the locals to launch revenge attacks and seek to escalate things more. This produces more over-reaction by Israel which generates more attacks.

It also ties down the IDF so they can't go visiting anywhere else, hits Israel's economy as they call up reservists and puts up the price of oil so the US gets it in the shorts. Job done.

Should Israel be stupid enough to kick anything off against Iran and Syria then things could get very sporty very quickly all over the place. They will take it for granted that the US will support Israel so there's no point in waiting for the US to attack first. The question is, how much blood and treasure are the US prepared to lose over Israel ?
 
#7
tomahawk6 said:
Unless the Lebanese Army moves into southern Israel to oust Hezbollah then the Israelis will do it. If they do that then I would expect the Israeli army to drive into the Bekaa Valley to destroy the terrorist training bases, perhaps even a drive on Damascus. Syria needs to be hit and hit hard an object lesson to its patron Iran.
Another of your infamous predictions T6? You've yet to get one right, so what's the betting this is going to be another glorious failure? Do you actually live in the 'real' world, or is this just some modern version of dungeons and dragons that you're playing out? If I roll a 6, the Israeli airforce loses; if you roll a 4, Damascus gets nuked!!!!!
 
#8
tomahawk6 said:
Unless the Lebanese Army moves into southern Israel to oust Hezbollah then the Israelis will do it.
Yesterday the Israeli Air Force attacked the Lebanese air base at Rayak. If the Israelis realy do want the Lebanese to take on Hezbollah, one has to wonder why they are destroying their means to do so.
 
#9
NEO_CON said:
What would I do First I would ask China to reign in its clients North Korea and Iran drastically. If they didn't I would start putting trade tariffs on Chinese goods.
One_of_the_strange said:
It also ties down the IDF so they can't go visiting anywhere else, hits Israel's economy as they call up reservists and puts up the price of oil so the US gets it in the shorts. Job done.
Put trade tariffs on Chinese goods and the Chinese economy will slow, producing a drop in demand for oil and the price will fall. Slightly off thread I know but I just noticed the running theme!
 
#10
Chinggis said:
Yesterday the Israeli Air Force attacked the Lebanese air base at Rayak. If the Israelis realy do want the Lebanese to take on Hezbollah, one has to wonder why they are destroying their means to do so.
The Lebanese will never take on Hizbollah - it is not only that they would probably be outfought but they also lack the will for the task.

One of the strange - is your solution one of appeasement? Take it on the chin sort of thing? I am sure that you (and many other here) would not be saying that if it were British citizens under exactly the same external and internal threats.
 
#11
NEO_CON said:
Thats right they're both thumbing their noses at you.

The question is, what are you Yanks going to do about it?

Its all very well priming your attack dog Israel but its claws only reach so far.
I glad to see your back. Your seething hatred of the US, Israel and others is bringing about a little refreshing honesty on your part. I do think it is far more than just thumbing their nose at people. China and Russia are using North Korea and Iran as proxies, Iran and Syria are using Hamas and Hezbollah as proxies.

What would I do First I would ask China to reign in its clients North Korea and Iran drastically. If they didn't I would start putting trade tariffs on Chinese goods.
Which would be illegal under WTO rules without a UNSC Resolution. Now then, let's review which countries have veto power in the UNSC, now let's ask the question- what are the chances of Chinese letting this one slide? The alternative is to undermine the WTO and pose a major threat to the international economic order.

Muppet.

Neo_Con and T6- Arrse's very own Ren and Stimpy.
 
#12
Arik said:
Chinggis said:
Yesterday the Israeli Air Force attacked the Lebanese air base at Rayak. If the Israelis realy do want the Lebanese to take on Hezbollah, one has to wonder why they are destroying their means to do so.
The Lebanese will never take on Hizbollah - it is not only that they would probably be outfought but they also lack the will for the task.

One of the strange - is your solution one of appeasement? Take it on the chin sort of thing? I am sure that you (and many other here) would not be saying that if it were British citizens under exactly the same external and internal threats.
If that's the case, what's the point of the blockade?
 
#13
Arik said:
Chinggis said:
Yesterday the Israeli Air Force attacked the Lebanese air base at Rayak. If the Israelis realy do want the Lebanese to take on Hezbollah, one has to wonder why they are destroying their means to do so.
The Lebanese will never take on Hizbollah - it is not only that they would probably be outfought but they also lack the will for the task.

One of the strange - is your solution one of appeasement? Take it on the chin sort of thing? I am sure that you (and many other here) would not be saying that if it were British citizens under exactly the same external and internal threats.
The problem Israel has to face is that however satisfying such actions may be they only serve to increase the threat. The more the Lebanese govt loses control as their infrastructure is hit easier it is for third parties to attack Israel via Lebanon. The more civvies get killed the more of their relatives volunteer to attack Israeli soldiers and suicide bomb buses. If Israel occupies to prevent this you've given the locals who hate you and anyone who cares to wander along a live fire range with the IDF as moving Figure 11s. Sure you'll take a lot of the locals down as well - so then the IDF recruit for their enemy.

We got to where we are in NI by making a large number of decisions that were very unpopular with a lot of people and many would no doubt be seen as cowardice and appeasement by yourself. (And me but that's another story) But it worked to stop the violence.

Israel's current course is all very Old-Testament righteous fury and no doubt makes people feel good - but the only way to make it work long-term is mass murder. Anything short of that merely breeds a generation who hate Israel enough to die attacking.
 
#14
Israel is not us

They may look like us but they is not us.

(which is liberally interpreted from Babylon 5, which when combined with The Hitchikers Guide To The Galaxy & the Blues Brothers provides the solution to all the world's philosophical problems)
 
#15
Which would be illegal under WTO rules without a UNSC Resolution. Now then, let's review which countries have veto power in the UNSC, now let's ask the question- what are the chances of Chinese letting this one slide? The alternative is to undermine the WTO and pose a major threat to the international economic order.
Some how I new Mr UN would arrive in the nick of time to save Huzballah from those evil Israelis.
If it causes problems with the WTO thats the way it goes, we can always litigate it. China and Russia need to pay a cost for their support of Iran and North Korea.
 
#16
NEO_CON said:
If it causes problems with the WTO thats the way it goes, we can always litigate it. China and Russia need to pay a cost for their support of Iran and North Korea.
Obnoxious, arrogant wibble!!!!
And you still wonder why much of 'free' world has become 'anti-american'?
 
#17
NEO_CON said:
Which would be illegal under WTO rules without a UNSC Resolution. Now then, let's review which countries have veto power in the UNSC, now let's ask the question- what are the chances of Chinese letting this one slide? The alternative is to undermine the WTO and pose a major threat to the international economic order.
Some how I new Mr UN would arrive in the nick of time to save Huzballah from those evil Israelis.
If it causes problems with the WTO thats the way it goes, we can always litigate it. China and Russia need to pay a cost for their support of Iran and North Korea.
Why ? The US exercises power via proxy in the ME via Israel, other states exercise power via other proxies. It's big boys rules here, push them and they push back. Are the results going to be worth the cost ?

As for litigation and the WTO, it's realpolitik again I'm afraid. If the US gets isolated then it can deploy as many lawyers as it likes, no-one will take any notice. Economic sanctions are an option, but then you have to be damn sure you're willing to take the hit to the US economy. Given the fact that the one place the US taxpayer has not been hit to date is in the wallet that then has potential for devastating blowback in US domestic politics.
 
#19
Of course Iran or Syria being clearly seen to be "puppet masters" in this little debacle will rather suit the USA from a geopolitical POV.
 
#20
Of course Iran or Syria being clearly seen to be "puppet masters" in this little debacle will rather suit the USA from a geopolitical POV.
Clearly Iran and Syria are supporting Hezbollah and Hamas but they are being covered by China and Russia. Israel can do what it thinks is necessary to protect its country.

My concern is to remove the cover China is giving Iran and in the pacific, North Korea. In these states China and Russia have proxies who for their own reasons are willing to push a line that they feel is beneficial to them, that is why they are giving Iran and North Korea cover in various international forms.

The continued fighting and or the increase in oil prices is going to produce a recession. If the situation becomes serious enough the WTO will be the least of our concerns. I might add , Iran with nuclear weapons, the situation would be a 100 times as serious as it is now. This is just the beginning of a long extremely dangerous, period of time.

There are a lot dangerous long term problems that are Issues.
 

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