The price of Oil

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
#1
I am conscious that this part of Arrse has some lurkers and others who keep a closer eye on international markets than most of us Joe Schlubs.

Back in the day, I used to have dealings with the Chilean Navy....it was a given that when the price of Copper went up, the Chileans would come a-knocking.

The price of oil governs the actions of many countries, not least the United States.

Can anyone tell me why the price of oil in June 2019 has suddenly spiked ?
 
#2
Trouble brewing in the gulf would be my bet.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
#3
well, not being rude but....duh ?

Looking for a bit more analysis if anyone has seen something that I haven't ? Over to you smart folks....
 
#4
well, not being rude but....duh ?

Looking for a bit more analysis if anyone has seen something that I haven't ? Over to you smart folks....
Opec has been cutting back on production gradually since last fall in an effort to push the price of raw crude up, spiked 3 times in the last two months. The latest rise is due to the Iran/Septic pïssing match causing the oil producers in the Gulf region to push the price up artificially as the supply line is theoretically under threat. I am commenting from the North American perspective.
 
#5
The price of oil generally (a few other factors) depends on four things:
OPEC production
Dollar exchange rate (as most is sold in $)
Time of year
Potential trouble with supplies

OPEC have been cutting production which Russia say they have been following and will review this month. They (OPEC) don’t want to make fracking too cost effective.

The dollar’s been fairly steady this year. High’s of £1.33, low’s of £1.25. £1.27 or so at the moment

Peak use is (apparently) summer with everyone driving off or flying on their holidays.

Increased sanctions on the sale of Vz and Ir oil. Meaning increased output by OPEC who want to cut production, married with Iran making noises about cutting supplies through the Straits of Hormuz, married with two separate attacks on tankers in the area blamed on Iran.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
#6
The price of oil generally (a few other factors) depends on four things:
OPEC production
Dollar exchange rate (as most is sold in $)
Time of year
Potential trouble with supplies
Factors five and six?
  • The amount of oil generated by fracking in non OPEC states.
OPEC chopped the price, hoping to drive the US frackers out of business. Instead, they became steadily more efficient and competitive, even at a sharply reduced oil price.
  • The move to renewable energy
This is steadily gathering pace and the need for oil is diminishing.

Wordsmith
 
#7
I am conscious that this part of Arrse has some lurkers and others who keep a closer eye on international markets than most of us Joe Schlubs.

Back in the day, I used to have dealings with the Chilean Navy....it was a given that when the price of Copper went up, the Chileans would come a-knocking.

The price of oil governs the actions of many countries, not least the United States.

Can anyone tell me why the price of oil in June 2019 has suddenly spiked ?
Welcome to the world of Oil company shares! I'm done with it, thankfully.
 
#11
Can anyone tell me why the price of oil in June 2019 has suddenly spiked ?
Not uniform spiking though. The was a bit of a spike in the cost of high test (premium) petrol in the eastern part of the US last week. That was due to a fire and explosion at a major Pennsylvania refinery whose primary product was high-test.

The cost of regular petrol has been dropping all month. At the beginning of June it was $2.73 per US gallon (3.78 liters) at a full service station in Massachusetts, down to $2.69 last week. Today I gassed up for $2.63 per gallon and then drove past a place where it was $2.59.

Like everything else in the US, it varies from state to state. Connecticut is always higher than Mass. by 20-30 cents. New Jersey is always much lower than Massachusetts and all of NJ is full service, no legal self pumping in NJ. California is always higher than anywhere else in the US. The differences are due to tax differing due to greed of local politicians. (Except California which seems to tax based on anger at people who refuse to buy green all electric cars and a desire to punish them).
 
#12
Not uniform spiking though. The was a bit of a spike in the cost of high test (premium) petrol in the eastern part of the US last week. That was due to a fire and explosion at a major Pennsylvania refinery whose primary product was high-test.

The cost of regular petrol has been dropping all month. At the beginning of June it was $2.73 per US gallon (3.78 liters) at a full service station in Massachusetts, down to $2.69 last week. Today I gassed up for $2.63 per gallon and then drove past a place where it was $2.59.

Like everything else in the US, it varies from state to state. Connecticut is always higher than Mass. by 20-30 cents. New Jersey is always much lower than Massachusetts and all of NJ is full service, no legal self pumping in NJ. California is always higher than anywhere else in the US. The differences are due to tax differing due to greed of local politicians. (Except California which seems to tax based on anger at people who refuse to buy green all electric cars and a desire to punish them).
Not that it is happening anytime soon, but I would love to drive my 6.7 diesel F-250 through Silicon Valley with a Rebel Flag hanging off the back, towing a Soviet-Era ZSU23-4. Not because I particularly want to (further) ruin their environment, or because I particularly believe in the Confederacy or NRA-ism, but simply to see their tear stained faces incredulous that someone dare drive a coach & horses through their snowflake bubble :)

Driving over a Tesla or three would be the icing :)
 

chimera

LE
Moderator
#13
#14
#15
It's also the shutdown season in the UK when platforms and pipelines are shutdown for intrusive repairs.
This causes short term supply shortages which others cash in on to alleviate.
Coupled with the unease in the ME there will also be panic buying.
Scalieback and wordsmith have covered the rest
 
#16
Not that it is happening anytime soon, but I would love to drive my 6.7 diesel F-250 through Silicon Valley with a Rebel Flag hanging off the back, towing a Soviet-Era ZSU23-4. Not because I particularly want to (further) ruin their environment, or because I particularly believe in the Confederacy or NRA-ism, but simply to see their tear stained faces incredulous that someone dare drive a coach & horses through their snowflake bubble :)

Driving over a Tesla or three would be the icing :)
You should load a Smart car in the bed.
 
#17
Not that it is happening anytime soon, but I would love to drive my 6.7 diesel F-250 through Silicon Valley with a Rebel Flag hanging off the back, towing a Soviet-Era ZSU23-4. Not because I particularly want to (further) ruin their environment, or because I particularly believe in the Confederacy or NRA-ism, but simply to see their tear stained faces incredulous that someone dare drive a coach & horses through their snowflake bubble :)

Driving over a Tesla or three would be the icing :)
Even better would be shooting into the air while yelling " get some! get some!"
 
#18
Even better would be shooting into the air while yelling " get some! get some!"
How dreadfully vulgar :) I was talking about California, not Manchester.

Instead of the towed ZSU23, perhaps a trailer with big video screens with some entertainment:

 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
#19
Thanks for the input...I thought there was a bit more to it than

' Trump Vs the Ayatollahs. Round #17 '


I seem to recall when the last bit of U.S-inspired regime change action* was underway ( in which I and many on this board took part) there were a lot of loopy theories floated as to the Whys and Wherefores of the whole gig.

One of them was that Saddam was pushing for Oil to be priced in Euros instead of US Dollars ?

I'm not sure of the ramifications of that - other than the Great American Public having to spend slightly more than £1.50 a gallon to keep their monster SUVs on the road?










*
O
peration
I raqi
L iberation - known to it's many British fans as 'Op Telic 1- 12 '
 
#20
"Well, the first thing you know, old Jed's a millionaire"
Oil is a king maker, it is said, but know that the effort and expense to refine a litre of fuel is a hundred times more than the litre of water you buy at the petrol station....but the water costs as much.
Downstream, garages rake more profit from shop sales than they do at the forecourt.
 
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