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The new Cold War pt2 (China)

China knows that to be a leading power, it really does boil to what’s in the bank account. China has very clearly learned from the demise of the USSR that even hardline communist governments need a viable income to keep going on and that’s been the driving force behind this authoritarian government turning China into a vast economic success.

It doesn’t play by the rules like the rest of the world. It will take a temporary hit wherever it needs to in one part of it’s economic plan to get a toe in the door and start to leverage influence and future economic success in other industries to source badly needed materials etc in those parts of the world where it can do so.

It’s been a great success story so far and it’s going to keep steam rollering on as far as anybody can really tell at the moment.

The irony for the west is that China pretty much couldn’t have done it without them. The monied classes have seen opportunities to make much more money by taking their fortunes abroad largely to China to invest in sweat shops where local workers have been forced by the Chinese government to work for a pittance.

So the basis for China’s huge and growing economic success was originally largely funded by investors from the west looking for more bang for their buck.

China’s playing a very long game and it’s only relatively recently that people have begun to take notice of what that game is.

Hence this new agreement between Australia, the USA and the UK to form this important new alliance.
Its clear to you, me and Peking that we are finally starting to push back. We ourselves are up to the eyes in debt and we can't afford a conflict and so the window of opportunity for them, is actually quite a narrow one. In five or ten years time we will look much stronger and dependence on china will be reduced and the rate technology is advancing, the CCP have limited time to exploit the tech they're have swiped, before its out of date.

Taiwan is the strategic prize and I would say the two most likely dates to me in descending order are:-
Nov 2024 - If the GOP win the 2024 election and months before they're take office and just blame it on fear of Trump and use our own media against us.
Nov-Dec 2023 - After the typhoon season and behind a screen of some kind of crash in the global economy.
 
Yes, really.

China is far more vulnerable than many people realise. Unlike Western societies, China is something of a closed book. In a free society, we have our own weaknesses rubbed in our faces on a daily basis. China is far better at hiding their vulnerabilities and projecting their strengths (or perceived strengths). It's covered in chapter one of the basic bully manual...

For a start, China is an authoritarian one party state led by a leader with totalitarian aspirations. These states don't have a good track record of competing with Western democracies. Our Western societies are currently unfocused, self-indulgent, immersed in childish cultural squabbles, and generally at a low ebb. That may not change soon, but the grownups will be focused on China. That makes a huge difference.

Xi's position is not entirely secure and the CCP has been papering over cracks in Chinese society for a long time. It could be argued that China is in fact six or seven countries held together by force, something that is harder to do in an information age. Most of their water supply comes from occupied Tibet. The West has not yet applied any pressure to those fault lines, or exploited cultural problems, resentments and religious grievances within Chinese society. Nor has it applied collective and concerted economic pressure or strategies to contain, curtail and undermine Chinese expansion and infiltration.

Mentally stand inside China and look outwards, you are ringed and hemmed in by competitors and potential antagonists. Three powerful economies in the form of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all US allies. Vietnam showed a willingness to fight when you invaded them in 1979 and you didn't hang around in their country. India loathes you, Russia mistrusts you, and your main English speaking trading partners are about to enforce a whole new set of rules, backed up by a common defence policy.

You can huff and puff - and threaten with wolf diplomacy - but you won't blow anybody's house down. The West may not even be planning on a new long-term cold war, it may be devising strategies to provoke the overthrow of the CCP - by it's own people - and give them their Ceausescu moment. Or it may simply intend to nudge China in a healthier direction and maintain a new modus vivendi. The West won't be kow towing to China. Stalin (I think) made an observation that when it's time to hang the capitalists, they will sell us the rope. The West won't be selling any ropes to the CCP, nor will it be selling much more of its own countries.
One thing we've learnt thus far in the 21C is that one-party states and dictators are much better (if slightly unpalatable) than the alternative.
 
Its clear to you, me and Peking that we are finally starting to push back. We ourselves are up to the eyes in debt and we can't afford a conflict and so the window of opportunity for them, is actually quite a narrow one. In five or ten years time we will look much stronger and dependence on china will be reduced and the rate technology is advancing, the CCP have limited time to exploit the tech they're have swiped, before its out of date.
I suspect you're making the same mistake we did with the Japanese. The fact that they're copyright thieves doesn't mean they're incapable of independent research and development.
 
The fact that they're copyright thieves doesn't mean they're incapable of independent research and development.
If history tells us anything it's that copyright infringement is a common step onto the value-added chain.

200 years ago, early 19th century British industrialists had a similar complaint levelled at that era's greatest IP thieves - the USA. 100 years ago, the US was complaining about the Japanese, then the Japanese complained about the Chinese and now the Chinese are complaining about each other, the Indians and Uncle Tom Cobbleigh.
 

The clearest signal of intent that we're about to enter a new phase of cold-war.

Standing up of AUKUS is about as significant of the formation of NATO.

Initial thoughts:

US is now deadly serious about the threat China poses (already 80k troops based in Far East), now creating an allegiance with Aus.
Clash of empires - will China's strategic patience persist or will they heat up? One could argue Covid is already shots fired!
What about France and other key allies? Aus has now cancelled the previous sub contract with Aus...

Get your popcorn, this will gone on for sometime...
China also has Russia, Iran and others doing some of it's bidding, particularly in the area of disinformation and social media, while China concentrates on influencing institutions and media through unofficially conditional donations, ownership and threats.
 
Yup, it's just complete coincidence that Chinese scientists and health officials discussed weaponising coronavirus in 2015, and the report "The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons." did not in any way lead to Covid 19 being released from a lab in Wuhan

That is just pure paranoia obviously
Nothing has been proven re it's origin. Some on the jab thread won't have it though, and of course then there's the China apologists.
 
Its clear to you, me and Peking that we are finally starting to push back. We ourselves are up to the eyes in debt and we can't afford a conflict and so the window of opportunity for them, is actually quite a narrow one. In five or ten years time we will look much stronger and dependence on china will be reduced and the rate technology is advancing, the CCP have limited time to exploit the tech they're have swiped, before its out of date.

Taiwan is the strategic prize and I would say the two most likely dates to me in descending order are:-
Nov 2024 - If the GOP win the 2024 election and months before they're take office and just blame it on fear of Trump and use our own media against us.
Nov-Dec 2023 - After the typhoon season and behind a screen of some kind of crash in the global economy.
I just can't see the Chinese invading Taiwan. We're not in 1950 and Taiwan is not Tibet. It's precisely the kind of high stakes gamble that Beijing avoids. Even if the military operation went smoothly, they'd have overplayed their hand on every other level. The long term losses in terms of international relations would outweigh the gains of seizing Taiwan. It would provoke an Asian arms race and cold war that they don't want, and something similar with the 5 Eyes, NATO and to a lesser extent the EU.

I also doubt if they currently have the expertise to launch a successful combined arms op against a mountainous island that favours the defenders. It's a horrendously complicated undertaking and the chances of achieving strategic surprise are about zero. Theoretically they could just throw wave after wave of men and material against the island, but heavy losses could be the breaking of the CCP at home - as in hanging party officials from lampposts.
 
Give AUKUS a year or two to settle down then invite India to join.

China should be isolated and pushed back into the economic stone age until they become a democratic country. Otherwise we are simply pandering to a bully-boy nation with the morals of an alley cat.

AUKUS is a good start, but it is just that - a start.
 
I recall early 90's AU; the Japanese asset bubble (baburu keiki) was having a significant affect on Australia.

There was a degree of paranoia (in the US also), that a resurgent and 'sinister' Japan was buying up important Aussie assets, the 'yellow peril' manifest by hoards of Japanese tourists swamping Melb/Sidders/QLD etc. The Ockers (Pauline Hanson types) were having palpitations and sweating into their stubbies over the rampant takeover of the Lucky Country by the devious Nips... then suddenly the bubble burst.....

The Chinese had a far better rep (no WW2 hang-ups see) and their stealthy market penetration was largely welcomed by the relatively newly progressive liberal AU elites (think Brighton, Clifton and Islington councillors) - a tight little self-licking lolly. Lots of back-handers (AU low level corruption a thing to behold; see also Abigail's Wedding), lots of easy money.

I do think (my opinion only, based on empirical evidence & a couple of chatham houses) that the CCP seriously studied their and their potential rivals histories and subsequently learnt well from the Masters of Empire (the British); trade led, slow market penetration, leverage of local corruption, divide and rule, then asset secure/accrue, secure strategic LoC and partnerships and hey presto; Pax Britanicca! Although, the Brits got there by accident, whereas the CCP want there by design.

The penny was beginning to drop amongst the more thoughtful Australian before the Pandemic. At my last trip back (2019) I came across a palpable change of attitude when chatting to certain individuals. This was indirectly re-enforced by the reaction of the people we met, who all seemed to want to talk about the B word; funny old thing, opinion generally divided across the flat white/stubbie line.

The pandemic has appeared to accelerate the realisation in AU that, unlike the early 90s, the CCP really is Bad Panda. However, I will temper my growing optimism that Aussie man/woman are finally realising they are being played. I say this as I can't get back down-under, due to AU ferked up covid response and continued lockdown, which is preventing F2F - and as my fam are proper flat-white Melb champagne socialist SJWs soy-persons, they present something of a fire-wall. Nevertheless, their formerly constant pontification on AU's 'bright new' Sino future has stopped, which I regard as a significant combat indicator.

So, in sum, AUKUS? F@ck yea!*








*and about bloody time.
 
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I just can't see the Chinese invading Taiwan. We're not in 1950 and Taiwan is not Tibet. It's precisely the kind of high stakes gamble that Beijing avoids. Even if the military operation went smoothly, they'd have overplayed their hand on every other level. The long term losses in terms of international relations would outweigh the gains of seizing Taiwan. It would provoke an Asian arms race and cold war that they don't want, and something similar with the 5 Eyes, NATO and to a lesser extent the EU.

I also doubt if they currently have the expertise to launch a successful combined arms op against a mountainous island that favours the defenders. It's a horrendously complicated undertaking and the chances of achieving strategic surprise are about zero. Theoretically they could just throw wave after wave of men and material against the island, but heavy losses could be the breaking of the CCP at home - as in hanging party officials from lampposts.
Completely agree with that logic....... Its such an unexpected thing that nobody in their right minds would even consider it and that almost certainly gives them tactical and strategic surprise.

In, 5-10 years, the geo-political picture will look very different and the Chinese will probably never face a weak Taiwan, America, or rest of the world as we are right now and for the next couple of years.
 
Completely agree with that logic....... Its such an unexpected thing that nobody in their right minds would even consider it and that almost certainly gives them tactical and strategic surprise.

In, 5-10 years, the geo-political picture will look very different and the Chinese will probably never face a weak Taiwan, America, or rest of the world as we are right now and for the next couple of years.
I'm really not an expert on China, but the impression I get is that they successfully 'plundered' the world for a couple of decades and amassed some serious wealth. Now that their bluff is being called, they'll look inwards and shift from being an export economy to being a 'Chinese economy'. They won't be isolationist, and global trade will continue, but they will focus on generating and spending money within their own borders. China doesn't like being dependent on exports any more than the West likes being beholden to China. As domestic labour costs rise, their export model will become less viable anyway.

The bullying and sabre rattling might continue, but I doubt if they really want a cold war with 80% of the planet. Pragmatism will probably prevail over ideology. Alternatively, they might become more subtle in their mischief and opt to play a longer and more devious game against the West. Whatever happens, I don't see them invading Taiwan.

Mind you. I've made a career out of being wrong...
 
Just as in 1945, when the USA emerged from the unpleasantness with it's economy and reputation enhanced and took full advantage of the fact, whilst Europe was in ruins, in the doomsday (and hopefully forever hypothetical) scenario of a China va the West bust-up, the big winner could conceivably be India. With no-one else to turn to, it isn't hard to image circumstances in which a battered, beleagured West promises the moon to India in return for opening a second front in the long-disputed Himalayan region.
 
I recall early 90's AU; the Japanese asset bubble (baburu keiki) was having a significant affect on Australia.


The Chinese had a far better rep (no WW2 hang-ups see) and their stealthy market penetration was largely welcomed by the relatively newly progressive liberal AU elites (think Brighton, Clifton and Islington councillors) - a tight little self-licking lolly. Lots of back-handers (AU low level corruption a thing to behold; see also Abigail's Wedding), lots of easy money.


The early 90s,,, The Cold War ended, the West had won and there was a new upbeat mood of global optimism. Jihad hadn't kicked off yet, and hey, the world's a great place!

By coincidence, the generation of tougher and shrewder leaders that had been tempered in WW2 was retiring and dying off.

The progressive liberal elites - smug 'white bread' 60s and 70s students - that assumed power were easy prey, or willing accomplices for the CCP.

On a certain level, they remind me of the Western intellectuals and fellow travelers who flirted with Stalinism in the 30s. At least the intellectuals could later plead naïve idealism and a reaction to the terrible poverty and class conflict of the time.

I think the West needs to start rooting out China's Western whores. I'd even back an amnesty scheme for anybody who is willing to admit to being bought, and amnesty/help for anybody who admits to being blackmailed.
 
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