The new Cold War pt2 (China)

Yarra

War Hero
I recall early 90's AU; the Japanese asset bubble (baburu keiki) was having a significant affect on Australia.

There was a degree of paranoia (in the US also), that a resurgent and 'sinister' Japan was buying up important Aussie assets, the 'yellow peril' manifest by hoards of Japanese tourists swamping Melb/Sidders/QLD etc. The Ockers (Pauline Hanson types) were having palpitations and sweating into their stubbies over the rampant takeover of the Lucky Country by the devious Nips... then suddenly the bubble burst.....

The Chinese had a far better rep (no WW2 hang-ups see) and their stealthy market penetration was largely welcomed by the relatively newly progressive liberal AU elites (think Brighton, Clifton and Islington councillors) - a tight little self-licking lolly. Lots of back-handers (AU low level corruption a thing to behold; see also Abigail's Wedding), lots of easy money.

I do think (my opinion only, based on empirical evidence & a couple of chatham houses) that the CCP seriously studied their and their potential rivals histories and subsequently learnt well from the Masters of Empire (the British); trade led, slow market penetration, leverage of local corruption, divide and rule, then asset secure/accrue, secure strategic LoC and partnerships and hey presto; Pax Britanicca! Although, the Brits got there by accident, whereas the CCP want there by design.

The penny was beginning to drop amongst the more thoughtful Australian before the Pandemic. At my last trip back (2019) I came across a palpable change of attitude when chatting to certain individuals. This was indirectly re-enforced by the reaction of the people we met, who all seemed to want to talk about the B word; funny old thing, opinion generally divided across the flat white/stubbie line.

The pandemic has appeared to accelerate the realisation in AU that, unlike the early 90s, the CCP really is Bad Panda. However, I will temper my growing optimism that Aussie man/woman are finally realising they are being played. I say this as I can't get back down-under, due to AU ferked up covid response and continued lockdown, which is preventing F2F - and as my fam are proper flat-white Melb champagne socialist SJWs soy-persons, they present something of a fire-wall. Nevertheless, their formerly constant pontification on AU's 'bright new' Sino future has stopped, which I regard as a significant combat indicator.

So, in sum, AUKUS? F@ck yea!*








*and about bloody time.
 
Last edited:
I just can't see the Chinese invading Taiwan. We're not in 1950 and Taiwan is not Tibet. It's precisely the kind of high stakes gamble that Beijing avoids. Even if the military operation went smoothly, they'd have overplayed their hand on every other level. The long term losses in terms of international relations would outweigh the gains of seizing Taiwan. It would provoke an Asian arms race and cold war that they don't want, and something similar with the 5 Eyes, NATO and to a lesser extent the EU.

I also doubt if they currently have the expertise to launch a successful combined arms op against a mountainous island that favours the defenders. It's a horrendously complicated undertaking and the chances of achieving strategic surprise are about zero. Theoretically they could just throw wave after wave of men and material against the island, but heavy losses could be the breaking of the CCP at home - as in hanging party officials from lampposts.
Completely agree with that logic....... Its such an unexpected thing that nobody in their right minds would even consider it and that almost certainly gives them tactical and strategic surprise.

In, 5-10 years, the geo-political picture will look very different and the Chinese will probably never face a weak Taiwan, America, or rest of the world as we are right now and for the next couple of years.
 
Completely agree with that logic....... Its such an unexpected thing that nobody in their right minds would even consider it and that almost certainly gives them tactical and strategic surprise.

In, 5-10 years, the geo-political picture will look very different and the Chinese will probably never face a weak Taiwan, America, or rest of the world as we are right now and for the next couple of years.
I'm really not an expert on China, but the impression I get is that they successfully 'plundered' the world for a couple of decades and amassed some serious wealth. Now that their bluff is being called, they'll look inwards and shift from being an export economy to being a 'Chinese economy'. They won't be isolationist, and global trade will continue, but they will focus on generating and spending money within their own borders. China doesn't like being dependent on exports any more than the West likes being beholden to China. As domestic labour costs rise, their export model will become less viable anyway.

The bullying and sabre rattling might continue, but I doubt if they really want a cold war with 80% of the planet. Pragmatism will probably prevail over ideology. Alternatively, they might become more subtle in their mischief and opt to play a longer and more devious game against the West. Whatever happens, I don't see them invading Taiwan.

Mind you. I've made a career out of being wrong...
 
Just as in 1945, when the USA emerged from the unpleasantness with it's economy and reputation enhanced and took full advantage of the fact, whilst Europe was in ruins, in the doomsday (and hopefully forever hypothetical) scenario of a China va the West bust-up, the big winner could conceivably be India. With no-one else to turn to, it isn't hard to image circumstances in which a battered, beleagured West promises the moon to India in return for opening a second front in the long-disputed Himalayan region.
 
I recall early 90's AU; the Japanese asset bubble (baburu keiki) was having a significant affect on Australia.


The Chinese had a far better rep (no WW2 hang-ups see) and their stealthy market penetration was largely welcomed by the relatively newly progressive liberal AU elites (think Brighton, Clifton and Islington councillors) - a tight little self-licking lolly. Lots of back-handers (AU low level corruption a thing to behold; see also Abigail's Wedding), lots of easy money.


The early 90s,,, The Cold War ended, the West had won and there was a new upbeat mood of global optimism. Jihad hadn't kicked off yet, and hey, the world's a great place!

By coincidence, the generation of tougher and shrewder leaders that had been tempered in WW2 was retiring and dying off.

The progressive liberal elites - smug 'white bread' 60s and 70s students - that assumed power were easy prey, or willing accomplices for the CCP.

On a certain level, they remind me of the Western intellectuals and fellow travelers who flirted with Stalinism in the 30s. At least the intellectuals could later plead naïve idealism and a reaction to the terrible poverty and class conflict of the time.

I think the West needs to start rooting out China's Western whores. I'd even back an amnesty scheme for anybody who is willing to admit to being bought, and amnesty/help for anybody who admits to being blackmailed.
 
Just as in 1945, when the USA emerged from the unpleasantness with it's economy and reputation enhanced and took full advantage of the fact, whilst Europe was in ruins, in the doomsday (and hopefully forever hypothetical) scenario of a China va the West bust-up, the big winner could conceivably be India. With no-one else to turn to, it isn't hard to image circumstances in which a battered, beleagured West promises the moon to India in return for opening a second front in the long-disputed Himalayan region.

Morning @SurviveToFight,
First off, excellent thread.
From 3 day old local comic.
20210915_113710~2.jpg

When I read this article, I couldn't help wondering if the bases could/would be used to deliver ordinance further afield? They have just upgraded a National Highway to accomodate airframes with a view for another 14. There was rumour that the local airport was being extended for IAF use.
There is an IAF airbase 64km from here with a squadron of 'Rafele', and there has been an increase flights that I have noticed. Very interesting one a couple of night ago.
Is there a pukka 'FlightRadar' type app that shows military flights? Obviously not sensetive stuff.
I will be following this thread with interest.
 
Now that their bluff is being called, they'll look inwards and shift from being an export economy to being a 'Chinese economy'. They won't be isolationist, and global trade will continue, but they will focus on generating and spending money within their own borders.
That's already happened. The PRC's service sector outstripped exports for the first time in the early part of the last decade and it's currently behind agriculture and construction in percentages of GDP.

1.3bn people with money to spend? That's a lot of economic depth.
 
I'm really not an expert on China, but the impression I get is that they successfully 'plundered' the world for a couple of decades and amassed some serious wealth. Now that their bluff is being called, they'll look inwards and shift from being an export economy to being a 'Chinese economy'. They won't be isolationist, and global trade will continue, but they will focus on generating and spending money within their own borders. China doesn't like being dependent on exports any more than the West likes being beholden to China. As domestic labour costs rise, their export model will become less viable anyway.

The bullying and sabre rattling might continue, but I doubt if they really want a cold war with 80% of the planet. Pragmatism will probably prevail over ideology. Alternatively, they might become more subtle in their mischief and opt to play a longer and more devious game against the West. Whatever happens, I don't see them invading Taiwan.

Mind you. I've made a career out of being wrong...
The response to the Wuhan Flu was cover-up, weasel words and a craven attitude from western governments. To me that is proof positive that we've being entirely subverted by the CCP and to what extent our institutions and particularly business leaders just like the money too much to ever turn away from China.

I think the Chinese understood our love for money overrides any moral virtue so beloved of the media and Taiwan has few friends in the UN and without membership is uniquely vulnerable and we are bluffing and China knows it. As you say an outright invasion would be short term very damaging, but as you say they're are already positioning themselves to be no longer entirely dependent on trade with us.
 
The response to the Wuhan Flu was cover-up, weasel words and a craven attitude from western governments. To me that is proof positive that we've being entirely subverted by the CCP and to what extent our institutions and particularly business leaders just like the money too much to ever turn away from China.

I think the Chinese understood our love for money overrides any moral virtue so beloved of the media and Taiwan has few friends in the UN and without membership is uniquely vulnerable and we are bluffing and China knows it. As you say an outright invasion would be short term very damaging, but as you say they're are already positioning themselves to be no longer entirely dependent on trade with us.

This book was really insightful.

1631890255775.png


Robert Spalding retired from the U.S. Air Force as a brigadier general after more than 25 years of service. He is a former China strategist for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Joint Staff at the Pentagon, as well as a senior defense official and defense attache to China. He earned his doctorate in economics and mathematics from the University of Missouri and is fluent in Mandarin.
 
Last edited:
To me that is proof positive that we've being entirely subverted by the CCP and to what extent our institutions and particularly business leaders just like the money too much to ever turn away from China.
Have you considered the possibility that your preferred conclusion just wasn't supported by any evidence?

It helps to do it that way round, but I realise that's a controversial stance.
 
Dodgy messing with the Chinese, they might be into biological warfare and release harmful pathogens into society.
The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons, was written in 2015 by 18 Chinese military scientists and weapons experts.

They stated that a family of viruses called coronaviruses could be “artificially manipulated into an emerging human disease virus, then weaponised and unleashed in a way never seen before.”

The cause of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a coronavirus that first emerged in Wuhan, China, and was named SARS-CoV-2.

The document highlighted how these engineered viruses would lead to a “new era of genetic weapons” and theorised about a bioweapon attack that would cause the “enemy’s medical system to collapse.”

'm really not an expert on China, but the impression I get is that they successfully 'plundered' the world for a couple of decades and amassed some serious wealth.

The new US, UK, AUS pact is belated recognition of the CCP's global intentions, and by whatever means.
 
Last edited:
The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons, was written in 2015 by 18 Chinese military scientists and weapons experts.

They stated that a family of viruses called coronaviruses could be “artificially manipulated into an emerging human disease virus, then weaponised and unleashed in a way never seen before.”

The cause of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a coronavirus that first emerged in Wuhan, China, and was named SARS-CoV-2.

The document highlighted how these engineered viruses would lead to a “new era of genetic weapons” and theorised about a bioweapon attack that would cause the “enemy’s medical system to collapse.”
Aye, I've read all that. You'd still have a difficult time convincing some others on here though. I argued all Wednesday with various posters, my point was that the origins of the virus are still unknown, others were trying to say that the evidence thus far points towards zoonotic origins, I've pointed out over and over again that the origins are not yet known.

The virus is real, the vaccine is real, I don't accept unproven facts though, and the fact is that the origins of the virus are still unknown.
 
All those people who enthusiastically signed up to online DNA testing (post the company a swab and get a printout of your ancestry) will no doubt be pleased to know that the CCP now has their personal details and DNA.

The Chinese hacked the big testing companies and robbed all their data.
 
Have you considered the possibility that your preferred conclusion just wasn't supported by any evidence?

It helps to do it that way round, but I realise that's a controversial stance.
Not one of these bastridges will give me the lottery numbers either...the selfish feckers must be winning it every week.
 
Have you considered the possibility that your preferred conclusion just wasn't supported by any evidence?

It helps to do it that way round, but I realise that's a controversial stance.
Its a china virus that was covered up by the CCP and I don't think many reputable people disagree a cover up happened, other than perhaps you and those in the pay of the CCP (see: WHO, Dr Fauci and the rest).

Western governments, business and the medical profession also covered for the Chinese. For a whole host of reasons, from not damaging fragile economies to simply avoiding a backlash against chinese people, but most of all the fortification of China was necessary to preserve their own power.

As for 'evidence', its always the cry from those twisting narratives who without any evidence themselves to support that narrative, except the opinions of a government or media organisation. But call every other opinions 'unsupported by evidence' and then simply ignore any like Resasi who on evidence grounds makes a far better case than your or Dr Fauci and his minions.
 
Its a china virus that was covered up by the CCP and I don't think many reputable people disagree a cover up happened, other than perhaps you and those in the pay of the CCP (see: WHO, Dr Fauci and the rest).

Western governments, business and the medical profession also covered for the Chinese. For a whole host of reasons, from not damaging fragile economies to simply avoiding a backlash against chinese people, but most of all the fortification of China was necessary to preserve their own power.

As for 'evidence', its always the cry from those twisting narratives who without any evidence themselves to support that narrative, except the opinions of a government or media organisation. But call every other opinions 'unsupported by evidence' and then simply ignore any like Resasi who on evidence grounds makes a far better case than your or Dr Fauci and his minions.
Yeah...imagine people asking for evidence for anything eh? What is this world coming to?
 

Yarra

War Hero

The early 90s,,, The Cold War ended, the West had won and there was a new upbeat mood of global optimism. Jihad hadn't kicked off yet, and hey, the world's a great place!

By coincidence, the generation of tougher and shrewder leaders that had been tempered in WW2 was retiring and dying off.

The progressive liberal elites - smug 'white bread' 60s and 70s students - that assumed power were easy prey, or willing accomplices for the CCP.

On a certain level, they remind me of the Western intellectuals and fellow travelers who flirted with Stalinism in the 30s. At least the intellectuals could later plead naïve idealism and a reaction to the terrible poverty and class conflict of the time.

I think the West needs to start rooting out China's Western whores. I'd even back an amnesty scheme for anybody who is willing to admit to being bought, and amnesty/help for anybody who admits to being blackmailed.
Let's hope that China's Western whores were just in it for a quick buck, rather than more ideologically fixed like the Sov's Cold War whores. Otherwise, we have our work cut-out.

Be could probably start by looking at our Universities...
 
my point was that the origins of the virus are still unknown, others were trying to say that the evidence thus far points towards zoonotic origins, I've pointed out over and over again that the origins are not yet known.
You seem to feel the two are mutually exclusive, for some reason.

You also seem to feel that "not yet known" is the same as "it must be their fault" and have no problem assigning culpability.
 
Its a china virus that was covered up by the CCP and I don't think many reputable people disagree a cover up happened, other than perhaps you and those in the pay of the CCP (see: WHO, Dr Fauci and the rest).
*Swallows tea the wrong way*

Is anyone who refuses to jump on an unevidenced bandwagon, "in the pay of the CCP"? They'll be on their uppers.
 

Latest Threads

Top