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The Myth of Testing

crow_bag

Old-Salt
Earlier I pointed out that letting CV19 run rampant was a bad idea, as you can be reinfected every six months or so.
Add to the mention that if memory serves, there's a 46% of getting serious, and lethal, heart problems each time you are infected.

Edit:
Looked it up. 46% of youths and athletes that have had cv19 have developed Myocarditis. Some of these were not showing symptoms.

COVID does not kill 50% of the people who catch it.

If that was the case there would have been more than 40k people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID.

Where did you get your figures on the number of people diagnosed with mycarditis after having covid?

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Where did you get your figures on the number of people diagnosed with mycarditis after having covid?

Probably made them up.

You can get it from the common cold too, btw.

1a.jpg


 

crow_bag

Old-Salt
Probably made them up.

You can get it from the common cold too, btw.

View attachment 506702


Yep, I had to Google it, this is what the British Heart Foundation have to say:

What causes myocarditis?

Although the cause of myocarditis is not always known (idiopathic carditis), it’s usually caused by:

a viral, bacterial or fungal infection

a chest infection

an auto immune disease (when your own immune system attacks your body).


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Yep, I had to Google it, this is what the British Heart Foundation have to say:




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Prof Gupta explained on Question Time that many viruses - including the flu - cause complications, yet we never close down the economy because of it.

Not even during flu epidemics.
 

Chef

LE
On Radio 4 last week a medical expert was saying that a colleague of his in the UK (one or other of them was a senior member of the WHO) had told him that although 4,000 cases were appearing daily the true figure was nearer 38,000.

Now leaving aside this sounded like the professional version of 'My mate down the pub's brother in law said...' It does pose these questions.

If that's the case and given that COVID has been portrayed as only slightly safer than Ebola.

Why hasn't the NHS been swamped by thousands of extra cases?

Where are they?

Where is the learned man getting his figures from?
 

crow_bag

Old-Salt
On Radio 4 last week a medical expert was saying that a colleague of his in the UK (one or other of them was a senior member of the WHO) had told him that although 4,000 cases were appearing daily the true figure was nearer 38,000.

Now leaving aside this sounded like the professional version of 'My mate down the pub's brother in law said...' It does pose these questions.

If that's the case and given that COVID has been portrayed as only slightly safer than Ebola.

Why hasn't the NHS been swamped by thousands of extra cases?

Where are they?

Where is the learned man getting his figures from?
Surely these figures are based on mathematical models and stuff, and most of those 38k (if they exist) would be asymptomatic, or not particularly unwell so they just self isolate without getting tested.

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Chef

LE
Surely these figures are based on mathematical models and stuff, and most of those 38k (if they exist) would be asymptomatic, or not particularly unwell so they just self isolate without getting tested.

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Wouldn't that imply that out of 38,000 people the vast majority are asymptomatic, a few have mild symptoms and still leaves us with the question. Why aren't they swamping the NHS? Because if that many are getting it without appearing on the wards and dying then it does rather undermine the, mostly media inspired, doom and gloom merchants.

Whether standard flu is causing more or less deaths is open to debate, however many long term illnesses are getting lower priority, cancer for one. As far as the effects of the lockdown go for mental health nobody seems to be worried too much about them.

Testing is all well and good but it is only a tool.

One which makes for lovely headlines, 'A million tests a day/hour/ month' but which nobody seems to know what to do with.
 
On Radio 4 last week a medical expert was saying that a colleague of his in the UK (one or other of them was a senior member of the WHO) had told him that although 4,000 cases were appearing daily the true figure was nearer 38,000.

Now leaving aside this sounded like the professional version of 'My mate down the pub's brother in law said...' It does pose these questions.

If that's the case and given that COVID has been portrayed as only slightly safer than Ebola.

Why hasn't the NHS been swamped by thousands of extra cases?

Where are they?

Where is the learned man getting his figures from?
In the few months from February, only those admitted to hospital were being tested. Given the ratio of hospitalisations to people who tested positive in areas with a more rigorous testing regime, 10:1 seems about right.

At this point, people still need reason to be tested (symptoms or contact) so there will be a large number of people who are not being tested who have it, but probably not 10:1.
 

Arte_et_Marte

ADC
Moderator
Not 100% true though is it?

Thousands have died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID19, and/or just having COVID19 mentioned on their death certificate whether they had tested positive or displayed any symptoms.

I am not denying the severity of the situation, or that it hasn't killed a lot of people, merely that there is a big difference between dying from COVID and dying with COVID

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And we are not far away from those cold winter nights when, traditionally, if I can use that word, our pensioners increase the already high death rate from influenza. Will authorities start lumping their deaths into the Covid figures? If that happens, the numbers involved will look huge.
 

Dredd

LE
Which swings back to the principle of the testing - what is it for?

Originally it was only used to confirm that an admission case of suspected COVID-19 was actually this and not something else with similar symptoms. So of 1000 tests, chances were the hit rate was close to 70%+.

At the moment it seems that the testing has moved to potential infection, not suspected. So the hit rate will drop drastically as the number of positives are far fewer - either because they haven't got it OR because they have yet to trigger it with sufficient viral load. the hit rate is now ~10%. Does that not make the remaining 90% a waste?

Let's take SPFL premier league teams as an example of how much testing is being carried out. Everyone in the club is required to be tested at least once a week. Some have actually been found to be positive so off they go home to sweat it out (assuming they actually get ill as such) - but I am not sure what happened to the others, since the team seemed to keep playing! Perhaps they used the social distancing arrangements as justification. Anyway they still get tested - but so will our poor sick-bay ranger as they need tested to prove they are no longer infectious. And once released from quarantine, I'll bet they are still being tested weekly.

However, scientifically speaking, these are the ones we are interested in. Because if they get re-infected, having exhibited symptoms from the last positive, we are now getting results showing how long the actual immunity might be. Problem is of course - it could be 5 years, and I would despair is we are STILL testing people by that time!
 

GreyArea

War Hero
It's the opinion of an oncologist who I quoted fairly accurately here:

View attachment 506664


In March I had a very serious change in bowel movements, blood in stool, tenderness in abdomen etc, etc.
It was right at the start of lockdown. Took me five telephone "consultations" with my GP surgery to convince them I had to see a doctor in person.

When examined he put me straight on the list for the endoscopy clinic at the local university teaching hospital. It took them two weeks to get in contact with the reply that the clinics were closed due to COVID and they weren't taking any referrals. three months later I was contacted again to be told that the clinics were still shut but would I take a poo stick test instead. This took another week to turn up and was duly sorted and sent back. After another two weeks I received a phone call saying it was inconclusive and that I should have an endoscopy to double check but unfortunately as the clinics were closed / taking only ultra urgent cases I'd have to wait till the clinics were opened up again.

It's now end of September. I still pass blood every now and again and have occasional mild to medium pain before passing motions. The clinics are still shut except to ultra urgent cases.

I hope to f*ck it's IBS
 
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ugly

LE
Moderator
In March I had a very serious change in bowel movements, blood in stool, tenderness in abdomen etc, etc.
It was right at the start of lockdown. Took me five telephone "consultantions" with my GP surgery to convince them I had to see a doctor in person.

When examined he put me straight on the list for the endoscopy clinic at the local university teaching hospital. It took them two weeks to get in contact with the reply that the clinics were closed due to COVID and they weren't taking any referrals. three months later I was contacted again to be told that the clinics were still shut but would I take a poo stick test instead. This took another week to turn up and was duly sorted and sent back. After another two weeks I received a phone call saying it was inconclusive and that I should have an endoscopy to double check but unfortunately as the clinics were closed / taking only ultra urgent cases I'd have to wait till the clinics were opened up again.

It's now end of September. I still pass blood every now and again and have occasional mild to medium pain before passing motions. The clinics are still shut except to ultra urgent cases.

I hope to f*ck it's IBS
Come here I’ve endured three endoscopic exam in one month! Left me feeling as weak as a new born kitten!
The sigmoidoscopy was chuffing uncomfortable to be positive about it
 
And we are not far away from those cold winter nights when, traditionally, if I can use that word, our pensioners increase the already high death rate from influenza. Will authorities start lumping their deaths into the Covid figures? If that happens, the numbers involved will look huge.

Which is why so many people are getting nagged to have flu jabs, it won't stop them getting covid, but if they don't get winter flu then it greatly reduces their risk of dying from covid than if they caught a winter bug and then Covid shortly after
 
Which is why so many people are getting nagged to have flu jabs, it won't stop them getting covid, but if they don't get winter flu then it greatly reduces their risk of dying from covid than if they caught a winter bug and then Covid shortly after
I think it's more of a mechanism to prevent the NHS from getting swamped, don't think it's so much the number of beds, but more likely staffing or probably both.
 
Because the virus will be with us for some time - unless it suddenly disappears or it has fully mutated into something else where it is not the same beast it is now. And it will be waiting. Viruses are neither dead nor alive, and as such they can lie dormant. Even for millennia.

But..But....Soap and water for 20 seconds!!
 

Dredd

LE
But..But....Soap and water for 20 seconds!!

Ah yes, but that is just to remove the surface contamination.

Indeed, without soap, running water would be as effective if the same rubbing motion is also used.

As you know.

Of course, we don't know the full nature of this virus yet - as I said before, it could just as easily disappear for no known reason. But the chances are, it will just keep getting passed on so remain warm and happy in temporary hosts until the next decamp.
 
Dunno why, but, apparently the testing cycle in the EFL is less than in the premier league. Don't know the full ins and outs, Mansfield played at Leyton Orient on Saturday gone. Turns out that Orient is rife with China virus. Yet another debacle of testing.
 

crow_bag

Old-Salt
Dunno why, but, apparently the testing cycle in the EFL is less than in the premier league. Don't know the full ins and outs, Mansfield played at Leyton Orient on Saturday gone. Turns out that Orient is rife with China virus. Yet another debacle of testing.
Why is that a debacle of testing?

I'm pretty sure that the club's are organising their own testing, that is that they aren't just rocking up at the local testing station once a week.

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Chef

LE
I think it's more of a mechanism to prevent the NHS from getting swamped, don't think it's so much the number of beds, but more likely staffing or probably both.

Wasn't this part of an advertising campaign earlier this summer? Something like 'Get vaccinated, protect the NHS'.

The lockdown started out as a means to prevent the NHS getting inundated, which was a good plan. This seemed to morph into, 'If we lockdown for long enough the nasty Covid will go away' a national version of pulling the blanket over our head.

The testing likewise seems to be conflated with the idea that if it's done 'right' the Covid will somehow disappear.
 

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