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The Myth of Testing

Reading the forums there are a lot of comments about how tested individuals will be safe and are not carrying CV19. These comments sometimes come from people whom I normally regard as being smart and whom I respect (most recent comment I saw was @Wordsmith saying that tested individuals would be safe to interact with vulnerable groups). I've pointed out the error in these posts when I've seen, but these posts are all buried in assorted threads, and thus other people have missed them.
Equally, there have been several people in the country suggesting testing can stop the virus, along with a general miss-understanding of what the test does and does not show. Like the gentleman from Stanstead who suggested a test on landing for every passenger, and if it comes back all clear then they go about their business with no isolation.

I really wish the government would explain the test better so everyone is educated why this is not a magic bullet.

I have a family member who works on CV19 testing, they've gone from 96 tests per day at the start of the crisis to between 500-600 at current, and they've not stopped expanding. From conversations with them I've picked up the following about the test.
The test will only come back as positive when there is a sufficient viral load to trigger the result.
This viral load level will appear between days 1-3 after symptoms appear in the patient.

Shitty graph to illustrate:

(Nothing's to scale on this graph, though, as we'll see.)

The problem with CV19 is that it has a long incubation period (about 10-14 days?) and is infectious for that period. Thus you can be infected, spreading the virus to others, and still get a negative test. The test is only used to confirm if you have CV19 or something else once you show symptoms, so that the medical profession know how to treat you.

So why not lower the sensitivity of the test? Well, that's impossible as well (this is where the science started and my brain sort of lost it a bit). The following is best guess based on conversations, logic and skim reading the following Wikipedia article. Apparently its all tied to the PCR. This is where the tiny fragments of CV19 DNA are replicated up to create enough to be measured.
The family member explained it as the same reason why bleach only is listed as killing 99% of germs. In reality it kills everything, however, PCR will show that there are Germs still present. The manufacturer's can't prove the bleach has killed all the germs, so they have to use the provable figure in their advertising.

So the summary is:
Testing will always return a negative, unless you have just started to show symptoms. This negative is no guarantee that you are clear of the virus.

It is this invisibility, long incubation time, but being infectious which is meaning it's impossible to stop. The only way to deal with it is with a well ordered society with strong conformist pressures, obeying the rules to prevent the spread. I'll leave you the reader to speculate how well that's going to go.
 

Rab_C

War Hero
I thought Oh No another tinfoil hat Covid thread but you’ve hit the nail on the head. Until the majority of the country realises what you’ve written is the truth we will continue to have issues.
 

Joker62

ADC
Book Reviewer
It is this invisibility, long incubation time, but being infectious which is meaning it's impossible to stop. The only way to deal with it is with a well ordered society with strong conformist pressures, obeying the rules to prevent the spread. I'll leave you the reader to speculate how well that's going to go.
I agree, but we don't have that kind of society, there will always be one non conformist who will convince others. Boris, in his speech yesterday, should've just stated "We've tried lockdown and a minority went against it, as soon as we started lifting lock down, you took the piss. As of Oct 1st, we cancel furlough, you all go back to work either at home or the office, wear a mask or not wear a mask, the choice is yours. We can't force you to do anything because you'll just do want you want to do, so there it is, it's now your responsibility. If Mrs Miggins down the road or your Grandma dies because you can't/won't stop fucking around, it's your fault, not the Govt's. The ball is in your court!"
 
As soon as BLM and Antifa were allowed to Riot on the steets of London and the police were kneeling to them, when we were on lockdown - and none of them were arrested and fined. I just thought to myself "F*ck it", it it's OK for them to break the rules - what's the f**cking point of everyone else not breaking them.

The thing is - this virus is here forever now. It can't be avoided, you will get it at some point. Best to just get it and move on and live your life like a normal human being instead of living in fear and under big brothers control.
 
Even with the sham of testing, false positives etc, the fact is that this disease has wiped out thousands just in this country alone.
 
As soon as BLM and Antifa were allowed to Riot on the steets of London and the police were kneeling to them, when we were on lockdown - and none of them were arrested and fined. I just thought to myself "F*ck it", it it's OK for them to break the rules - what's the f**cking point of everyone else not breaking them.

The thing is - this virus is here forever now. It can't be avoided, you will get it at some point. Best to just get it and move on and live your life like a normal human being instead of living in fear and under big brothers control.
A very valid point. Why should I not visit my lonely relatives / mates / whatever when certain sections of society seem to have carte blanche to do as they wish ?
 
As soon as BLM and Antifa were allowed to Riot on the steets of London and the police were kneeling to them, when we were on lockdown - and none of them were arrested and fined. I just thought to myself "F*ck it", it it's OK for them to break the rules - what's the f**cking point of everyone else not breaking them.

The thing is - this virus is here forever now. It can't be avoided, you will get it at some point. Best to just get it and move on and live your life like a normal human being instead of living in fear and under big brothers control.

Great! One tiny tiny problem... Immunity is judged only to last about 4-6 months. And more concerning, in a large chunk of cases causes heart problems, even amongst those who do not need hospitalisation. The numbers I think I saw were 46%.
So every 4-6 months you roll the dice and have a 46% chance of serious heart problems...
 
As soon as BLM and Antifa were allowed to Riot on the steets of London and the police were kneeling to them, when we were on lockdown - and none of them were arrested and fined. I just thought to myself "F*ck it", it it's OK for them to break the rules - what's the f**cking point of everyone else not breaking them.

The thing is - this virus is here forever now. It can't be avoided, you will get it at some point. Best to just get it and move on and live your life like a normal human being instead of living in fear and under big brothers control.

That's a lot of words just to say you didn't understand the OP.
 
Great! One tiny tiny problem... Immunity is judged only to last about 4-6 months. And more concerning, in a large chunk of cases causes heart problems, even amongst those who do not need hospitalisation. The numbers I think I saw were 46%.
So every 4-6 months you roll the dice and have a 46% chance of serious heart problems...
Humans have survived since they started walking the planet, there's been untold millions of diseases & virus that they have had. Each time they caught something - some died, the strong survived and passed those genes on to the next generation. We are now living through a generation of poncy weirdo's - nature has decided some of those need to die and to take some action........that's nature for you, don't fight it - accept it.
 

crow_bag

Old-Salt
Even with the sham of testing, false positives etc, the fact is that this disease has wiped out thousands just in this country alone.
Not 100% true though is it?

Thousands have died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID19, and/or just having COVID19 mentioned on their death certificate whether they had tested positive or displayed any symptoms.

I am not denying the severity of the situation, or that it hasn't killed a lot of people, merely that there is a big difference between dying from COVID and dying with COVID

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 
Not 100% true though is it?

Thousands have died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID19, and/or just having COVID19 mentioned on their death certificate whether they had tested positive or displayed any symptoms.

I am not denying the severity of the situation, or that it hasn't killed a lot of people, merely that there is a big difference between dying from COVID and dying with COVID

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
Exactly - some people were on the brink of death anyway and as is normal we are all going to die at some point. It just so happens if you had terminal cancer (or some other ailment such as old age etc) and died and at the same time tested positive for covid - you were added to the 'death by covid' database.
 
Not 100% true though is it?

Thousands have died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID19, and/or just having COVID19 mentioned on their death certificate whether they had tested positive or displayed any symptoms.

I am not denying the severity of the situation, or that it hasn't killed a lot of people, merely that there is a big difference between dying from COVID and dying with COVID

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
Way I see it is, dying from it or with it is still down to coronavirus, agree a lot of people probably didn't have long left, but I believe the higher the infections rate, will ultimately return higher figures of death as time goes on. That's why I am in favour of restrictions, probably the worst thing in life is losing that life. Government is in a dammed if they do and dammed if they don't situation.
 

ancienturion

LE
Book Reviewer
I'll feel better about it when I have been vaccinated against this Kung Flu 19 stuff.
 
Way I see it is, dying from it or with it is still down to coronavirus, agree a lot of people probably didn't have long left, but I believe the higher the infections rate, will ultimately return higher figures of death as time goes on. That's why I am in favour of restrictions, probably the worst thing in life is losing that life. Government is in a dammed if they do and dammed if they don't situation.
Maybe if they didn't have one rule for a certain group of people, and another for everyone else - then people would take it seriously. The fact is - the schools are open, you can go to the pub, go to the shops etc - but you can't visit your family.

The rules are stupid and inconsistent. As soon as the kids went back to school - they mixed with their friends, went home and passed all their sniffles on to their parents/grand parents etc.

People need to live with this thing forever now - there's no point living like a hermit or troglodyte. Just accept that there's hundreds of thousand of things in the world that can already kill you and 1 more thing has been added to that list.
 
Maybe if they didn't have one rule for a certain group of people, and another for everyone else - then people would take it seriously. The fact is - the schools are open, you can go to the pub, go to the shops etc - but you can't visit your family.

The rules are stupid and inconsistent. As soon as the kids went back to school - they mixed with their friends, went home and passed all their sniffles on to their parents/grand parents etc.

People need to live with this thing forever now - there's no point living like a hermit or troglodyte. Just accept that there's hundreds of thousand of things in the world that can already kill you and 1 more thing has been added to that list.
It's a highly contagious disease, that as of yet is in it's infancy, nobody knows for certain how it would pan out for them short term and long term. What developed nation is going to just say " fcuk it let it spread amongst the population and wipe out a few thousand codgers" which basically is the gist of your post.
 
I'll feel better about it when I have been vaccinated against this Kung Flu 19 stuff.
Hopefully the vaccine will protect you for life but in reality will probably protect you for 6 months to a year until Covid 19 mod A1 comes along and we have to go through the whole process again, just like flu.
 

ancienturion

LE
Book Reviewer
Hopefully the vaccine will protect you for life but in reality will probably protect you for 6 months to a year until Covid 19 mod A1 comes along and we have to go through the whole process again, just like flu.

I already have to obtain boosters for other diseases. One more won't make a lot of difference.
 
It's a highly contagious disease, that as of yet is in it's infancy, nobody knows for certain how it would pan out for them short term and long term. What developed nation is going to just say " fcuk it let it spread amongst the population and wipe out a few thousand codgers" which basically is the gist of your post.
It's a virus - like the cold or the flu. There's no cure for the cold or the flu and there's no cure for this or is there likely to ever going to be one. Get it, get over it - humans have been doing that since they walked the earth. There's too many people on the planet - so nature sorts things out it's own way.
 
Might be a good while, even with a safe vaccine the logistics around the rollout will be massive.

A vaccine will be more-or-less specific to this strain, but there are already mutations to Covid-19 that are recognisably different. More will develop until, like human flu or kennel cough, the disease will find a way around the vaccine and we have to start again.
 

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