The Global Recession. The fightback starts here

Discussion in 'The NAAFI Bar' started by TheIronDuke, Sep 11, 2008.

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  1. TheIronDuke

    TheIronDuke LE Book Reviewer

    Its bollocks.

    There is no recession.

    So your house has dropped £100K? Cry me a fucking river. Serves you right for watching those Property Ladder bollocks shows on C4 at 7.30pm where they say "Ooooh, put in a gazebo and a jacuzzi and you can make £100k overnight"

    They lied. Adjust.

    Fuel has gone up? Yeah but...

    Take a look at the jeans you wear? £4 from Asda.

    T shirts? £2

    Kids school uniforms? £15 for two at Tesco while stocks last. Terms and conditions apply.

    You want to go there with Primark? Your bird comes back on a Friday afternoon, looking like a million dollars, and its cost her £20.

    Your laptop cost £250 and its got 5 times the power of the tower system you bought 10 years ago for £2,000.

    Flights? You can fly to Krakow for £20. I cant think why you would want to, but you can.

    iPods, Boses, power tools, yots, guns, beer, blow jobs, pasties, flowers, books, cheap suits, hedges, carrots, trampolines, fucking cars... are they harder to buy because of the credit crunch? No. They are getting cheaper.

    The recession is an invention of the Daily Mail and its about time we stopped buying into it. Take a look around? Are you better off than you were 10, 20 years ago?

    Or not?
  2. You must be another cnut with a goldplated pension. I,ve had two days work this week, [self employed] Next week I am on a bit of a roll, I've got three days work. I've had to lower my prices to get the work, as no one is spending money.
    Today I registered at a recruitment agency for some part time work, tomorrow I've got an interview with Asda. The fcuking shame, from a skilled man to stacking shelves.
    I've had an apprentice for thirteen months, so I've took a drop in pay anyway to pay his wages. If I get a job at Asda, what do I tell him.
    All the building work around our area, if it has not stopped, will not pay a decent wage, as the wages have dropped due to the influx of so called skilled immigrants. Plus I can not see anyone employing me, if I have an apprentice in tow.
    In my opinion, sir, you are a slack jawed faggot who lives in an ivory tower, you don't have an igloo
    F O A D
    Edited once, I was on a rant.
  3. TheIronDuke,

    We have the same problem here in the US. People have to blame some else for their problems.

    I know of a DR. who owns 7 houses that he bought to flip to make money and got caught with his pants down and now can not pay his bills.

  4. Patience. It's only just begun. I've been following this crisis for several years. Yes, it's been several years in the making. In fact, advocates of the Austrian School often state that this crisis began in 1945, when debt began to become the primary driving force behind the Western economies. It's possible that we are approaching the end of the current cycle in the Kondratiev wave -- approaching the Kondratiev winter.

    If you look at the technical charts, the Dow and the FTSE have actually been in a bear market since 2001. Indeed, US and European economies have been in structural trouble since before 2000/2001. Former Chairman of the Fed, Greenspan, lowered interest rates too far and too fast and, ultimately, after the dot-com crash and the September 11 attacks, the US saw negative interest rates. Price inflation was kept in check through cheap imports. The lowering of interest rates led to the mother of many speculative bubbles, and these bubbles are now bursting in slow motion. The public is generally behind the curve and are still talking about inflation. However, we're now in the middle of a deflationary period, with price inflation to boot.

    What began as a 'credit crunch' is turning into the greatest economic crisis since 1929. We're at the end of the beginning and now the cancer will move to main street. In my view we can expect a deep and long lasting recession, possibly even a depression involving biflation.

    Those cheap imported goods you refer to, IronDuke, are still cheap because of over-capacity. There's a major surplus of imported consumer goods that have been shifting more slowly since the downturn began. However, as the Pound weakens, and as standards of living and inflation increase in developing countries, then the days of super-cheap imports will be numbered. Furthermore, your failure to focus on food and energy price increases makes your post seem disingenuous. I can't eat a laptop or plasma tv.

    This is going to get very painful for everyone apart from the super-rich, and there's a great deal of unravelling to occur before we hit a bottom. I recommend readers take a look at the following interview. It is quite lengthy (35 minutes) but the panel includes Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted, five years ago, pretty much everything we've seen in the crisis so far. Alongside Roubini is Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO. Heavyweight commentators, indeed. A most interesting and honest interview it is. After the financial discussion is an interesting discussion on Pakistan.
  5. Contrarian,

    And I thought only we had the left wing nuts who claim the the sky is falling.

  6. Oil has just DROPPED nearly 50 bucks a barrel, the US GDP rebounded in the second quarter, Broon just chucked £910m fuel measures help at us, UK retail sales figures are up and, most indicatively, Disney has reported a 9% rise in net quarterly profits.

    Recession? What recession?

    We never had it so good.
  7. chalice,

    Hey. Watch out. The sky is falling.

  8. ALLONS,

    Hey. Watch out. A hurricane's coming.
  9. There will always be -- until their personal devastation manifests itself -- perma-bulls. Perma-bulls are often highly leveraged individuals with much to lose and bankruptcy to endure if recession shows its face. Often they have a property 'portfolio' and refer to poky new-built flats in sink areas as 'luxury apartments'. Denial to the 'end' for the perma-bull. The truth is just too much to bare.

    There will always be left-wing and right-wing nuts. Myself, I'm a bit of left and right, and also a nut. My left wing views advocate free at the point of access healthcare and education. My right wing views advocate capital and corporal punishment. I'm not a perma-bull or a perma-bear. Whilst economics isn't a science, one still must objectively and critically interpret the fundamental and technical data available. From an unemotional perspective the data shows we're in big sh1t. I wish it weren't so. However, the equity driven debt binge could not have continued indefinitely. The good times are over. We will need to rebuild our economic model in time for the beginning of global recovery that will be led by China, India and Brazil.

    Going back to the Austrian School, the economy functions in cycles. Brown foolishly boasted that he'd altered the economic cycle with his "No more boom and bust" speeches. However, what we are seeing is simply the economic cycle in action -- we are seeing the end of a debt driven cycle. There is a contraction of available credit in the markets, and there have been massive write-downs by financial companies. And yet, the losses for the banks haven't yet been cleaned out of the system. There are many more losses to come, and several trillion US$ will have disappeared before the clean out is completed. Additionally, if the collapse of the currently teetering derivatives market occurs, then the total losses to the global financial system could be in the region of $500 trillion, though a derivatives meltdown is still only an outside possibility.

    However, I can say with certainty that we're on the edge of a systemic banking collapse. If the banks didn't have access to the liquidity windows of the central banks then the banking system would collapse. The banks are insolvent. Period.

    The mainstream media don't discuss the true gravity of the situation. There would be panic, involving bank-runs, if wider society were to become aware. There's frantic work going on behind the scenes to avert disaster. However, these measures will likely fail and, indeed, make matters worse in the long run, for the economy is undergoing an inevitable part of the cycle.

    This is the beginning of a highly significant epoch in economic and geopolitical history. My view is that by 2010 nobody will be denying the severity of the crisis and that we'll be bereft of talented and honest leadership to put things right. Not to mention being economically and socially bankrupt as a nation.
  10. Command_doh

    Command_doh LE Book Reviewer

    I work at Heathrow Airport - and 'Chavs on Tour' - that yearly EX where the scum go on holiday, has barely occurred. They say foreign travel is an indicator of available disposable income, but its been a bit of a ghost town here to be honest. That includes the foreigners coming in and spending all their lovely dough. Its been the quietest Summer I've seen in 5 years, and at the airport Summer is from May until end of September. Still, a lot of blame can fall at the feet of BA/BAA at T5. They have resorted to taking out huge adverts in the press saying T5 works fine now (it does), but their timing couldn't have been worse. And running a bad airport poorly does not reflect on passengers wishing to come here, so other factors are clearly at work -IE global economic downturn.
  11. This presumably means that benefit fraud is being successfully clamped down on? Or is that too optimistic?
  12. Fuel prices up 20% on last year. Home utilities up between 15% and 30% since last year. Food up about 12%.

    Rate of inflation at least 4.4% (that govn is prepared to admit to). 5% minimum on most scales.

    My pay rise was 2.49%, next year it's 1.9%. Thus I am going to be worse off over the next 3 years as inflation outstrips my pay.

    I don't own a house, I rent. While some goods are much cheaper (textiles and electronics) others are far more expensive, especially if energy intensive.
  13. Contrarian puts it a lot better than I can but I agree with that scenario. It's been a long time coming and naivety and greed have made the situation worse. Sadly, I think that his last paragraph is spot on.