The Gathering Storm

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Skynet, Jan 2, 2010.

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  1. From The Times
    January 2, 2010
    The Gathering Storm
    Failed states, where lawful authority breaks down and terrorist groups move in, are a security threat and present an emerging humanitarian crisis

    Dozens of people were killed yesterday when a man drove a vehicle packed with explosives across a field and detonated them. The dead and wounded were entirely helpless players and spectators in a volleyball tournament in northwest Pakistan. They were victims of a suicide bomber. They were also victims, less directly, of an increasingly alarming facet of the international order: failed states, in which terrorist groups can find sanctuary and sustenance.

    The bombing happened near the increasingly anarchic tribal belt encompassing North and South Waziristan. From there, Taleban insurgents have launched ferocious attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Nearly 600 people in Pakistan have been killed in terrorist assaults in the past three months. The superficial explanation is that this is retaliation for the military campaign launched by Pakistan in October to clear the Taleban from the tribal areas. But that is, in reality, no explanation at all.

    Radical Islamists are bent on establishing theocratic regimes across the region. They would outlaw religious and political dissent, subjugate women and — if they made their way to Islamabad — put nuclear weapons in the hands of fanatics who seek to hasten a literal apocalypse. They are not provoked into violence: holy war is their end and not merely a means. They fill a space and train terrorist recruits where the writ of constitutional government does not run.

    The Taleban came to control more than 90 per cent of Afghanistan in the late 1990s, in the vacuum left by the withdrawal of occupying Soviet forces. They thereby served as host of al-Qaeda, which planned assaults on Western civilian and military targets. The attempt to bring down a transatlantic flight on Christmas Day, by a Nigerian who had apparently received orders from al-Qaeda in Yemen, fits a similar pattern. Yemen has a weak government and declining reserves of water and oil. It also has a flow of migrants from Somalia, a still more impoverished and unstable country, across a 200-mile stretch of the Arabian Sea.
  2. Andy_S

    Andy_S LE Book Reviewer

    Failed states are indeed a pressing issue. Sadly, a number of recent efforts to deal with them - Somalia being a key case in point - have themselves, failed.

    One clear lesson from Afghan is that the Western World's power to deal with such states is limited. The Afghan game is still in play and I certainly hope for an eventual positive outcome, but it goes to show that one can't deal with all the world's problems at one time. One of the worst possible scenarios would be for us to stablize Afghan, only for Pakistan to go under...a domino effect in reverse.
  3. And it doesn't really contribute much to the equation when those tyrants who engineer failed states can toss it off around the boutiques of European cities with seeming impunity.
  4. We cannot fix all these failed states, but we can learn a lesson from the Romans…

    'oderint dum metuant'

    'Let Them Hate as Long as They Fear', and we have the means if we wish to make them fear.

  5. A policy that has proven to work really well across the globe and through history. When people fear they find way to strike and often there only method is to commit horrendous acts which they justify through their fear.
  6. But how do you make someone fear you when A)He wants to die anyway B)You don't have the capability to hit him because you're armed forces are stretched to breaking point and finally C)You are bound by civilised ROE that ensure you will never do anything nasty enough to make him think twice?
  7. Teaching them cricket and polo has proved far more effective than laying waste towns and villages. Strong leadership in countering the threat is a basic requirement for starters, and when I say 'leadership' I don't mean the self-serving cabal of hand-wringing, Guardian-reading, apologist, Marxist cretins we have in 'power' at present - letting in foxes and then wondering why all the chickens have been shredded.
  8. Only in the glory days of the Empire, when it was very definately backed up by the ABILITY to lay waste to whole fcuking CITIES if we needed to!

    Carrots are only useful when you have the alternative of a BFO Stick! :twisted:
  9. The pity is that all we need is agovernment which the balls to sanction black ops. We could be very scary and on the cheap - even in today's society the old pirate spirit is still alive and well.
  10. The problem with Black Ops is number one if you’re looking to spread fear and to intimidate you need the recipient to know who did it simply bumping off someone is not enough you need to nail then to a tree with courtesy of HM Government stamped on them. The second is that as a asset it is often abused who ever chooses who we start to slot needs to have the wisdom of Solomon and the discipline only to act in this nation interest.
  11. What we need is the laws of the land applied without fear or favour, these are just a bunch of nuts, no different to all the other bunches of nuts, the difference is that they have been allowed to flourish.
  12. Not probably the best example, but look at the film Sworfish to see how that could turn out.

    Wasn't there a case in Beirut where after they got mortared, the Legion went up the mountain, took out a command post, and nailed the bodies to a wall/ doors etc, Supposedly they never had a problem after that.
    (Although that maybe an urban myth, but I was told that by an ex legionaire.)

  13. Never heard that one before. But what KGB Spetznaz did to the brother of a local bad lad who had kidnapped Sovier Embassy employees definately is'nt an urban legand.

    The two hostages were released 24 hours after the terrorist leader recieved what was left of his brother in the mail... 8O :twisted:
  14. The old John Travolta 'they blow up a bus, we tactically nuke a city' jobby.

    I liked his style in that film tbf.
  15. If you were to start bumping people off, I'd go for the perfumed princes in Saudi and Dubai who finance the likes of the Taliban and AQ. I suspect that their appetite for martyrdom is somewhat more fragile than that of the headbanging mountain men typically taken out in Predator strikes.