The future for Saudi and the Gulf oil states?

This one has been nagging me for a while and in particular sparked by the lack of action by any western nations in light of Saudi support for the more violent aspects of Islam both in the ME and closer to home.
Many of you will be aware that the Saudis are now facing a bit of a crisis in light of the technologies involved in fracking for oil and gas improving the output natively in many countires around the world.
This crisis involves them basically going skint whilst trying to support a huge public sector and a massive benefits bill (lots of Saudis sit on their bums being paid quite nicely for doing so thankyouverymuch).
As a point of note 90% of private sector employees in Saudi are guest workers.
Another thing to note in particular is that 50% of the Saudi population is aged 25 or below and in the past 25 years the population has doubled.
So, my guess is that western nations are playing the long game in that the more we introduce fracking the less dependent we shall be on Gulf oil and gas especially once new power generation methods and technologies are introduced.
The less we have to buy from them, the less money they shall take in (China has HUGE frackable resources, 50% more than the US by all accounts!) and the greater of their reserves they will have to spend.
Some reports estimate the Saudis have 10 years before going broke at current spending levels, and unless the smaller gulf states have been especially clever I think many may face a similar situation.
Certainly in the near future Saudi funding of European Islamic centres (new mosques etc) and clerics may be cut before drying up.
Almost certainly the support of some ME regimes will have to go, and if ISIS haven't been tackled in the meantime they will suddenly find themselves with no backing.
I don't think the yoof of Saudi will be very happy their fathers have squandered their inheritance, and a desert kingdom incapable of supporting almost 30 million (please note this includes 10m guest workers) people isn't going to be a happy place to be!
So, can they prevent this from happening, or are they finally going to get a big dose of karma?
 
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AAGF

RIP
RIP
Asylum seekers into Europe in 20 years
There have been comments regarding the ignorance and arrogance of many of the emigrants from the Middle East - please believe, you have never experienced ignorance and arrogance until you meet a Saudi ...
 
There have been comments regarding the ignorance and arrogance of many of the emigrants from the Middle East - please believe, you have never experienced ignorance and arrogance until you meet a Saudi ...
Wait until someone suggests they may actually have to work for a living!
 
How long will the House of Saud be able to fund the brutal National Guard before it's weakness becomes obvious and there's a Arab 'autumn' on the horizon?
 
How long will the House of Saud be able to fund the brutal National Guard before it's weakness becomes obvious and there's a Arab 'autumn' on the horizon?
National Guard vs. Army more likely.
 
Lots of shiny kit with no-one who knows how to use it?

I think we may have solved the 'What replaces Challenger 2?' question. We just have to be patient...
Think about all the shiny kit that Iraq had , left to rot by the Iraqi Arab mind, culture. So why would the shiny kit used by the house of SA be in better condition .unless it's because right now they pay for it to be maintained by "others" . If it goes tits up the others will depart and the shiny kit will just rot in the sun.
 
There have been comments regarding the ignorance and arrogance of many of the emigrants from the Middle East - please believe, you have never experienced ignorance and arrogance until you meet a Saudi ...
Yup.
 
There have been comments regarding the ignorance and arrogance of many of the emigrants from the Middle East - please believe, you have never experienced ignorance and arrogance until you meet a Saudi ...
Having worked there, on and off for a number years, all I can say to that is.......
Amen!
Ignorant, arrogant people.
Edited to add.......Lazy too!
 
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ArchieCat

Old-Salt
Can't speak for Saudi but QIA have been investing in a wide range of companies.


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I had this conversation with a mate when we were there in '96. A generation of Saudis have basically sat on their arses and let the Bangladeshis/Philippinoes (insert poor nation of choice here) build and maintain their country.
It's got to the point where the average Saudi male can't change a plug, fix the washing machine etc. etc.
As soon as the money runs out and the "workers" go home, Saudi will become a third world nation almost overnight. Whilst You might imagine this would be fun to witness, the vacuum created will be filled by some radical nutters and a few million Saudi refugees will head westwards demanding to be looked after.
Turning it into a huge glass car park now, could save a lot of grief for the next generation.
 
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AAGF

RIP
RIP
I used to bring back Lego and Meccano for my OJTs kids - the OJTs had virtually no manual dexterity whatever, and I hoped (probably naively) that maybe I could make a small change ...
 
Think about all the shiny kit that Iraq had , left to rot by the Iraqi Arab mind, culture. So why would the shiny kit used by the house of SA be in better condition .unless it's because right now they pay for it to be maintained by "others" . If it goes tits up the others will depart and the shiny kit will just rot in the sun.
IIRC There was a big problem with Saudi forces during GW1 where they didn't actually have the capacity to maintain their kit in the field for any length of time as a lot of their maintenance was done via contractors in base locations.

Edited to add: And their forces had very little (or no) experience of maintaining the equipment themselves.
 
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Asylum seekers into Europe in 20 years
Given the countries they would have to traverse for the direct route to Europe I think that this would be a lot harder than the Syrians have it.
 
I put this up on another thread a few weeks back:

Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles
Interesting article here too - I noticed a couple of days ago a headline that KSA was liquidating assets:

Dying Petrodollar Ripples Through Markets As Asset Managers Bemoan Loss Of Saudi Bid | Zero Hedge

Also a different approach here from the Qataris. They don't overspend unless it is on prestige projects like the World Cup, but there is a lot of empty office space along the Corniche which to my mind is a bubble waiting to burst. Not a lot of Qataris in the world, but they certainly expect nice salaries and perks, and they appear to have high levels of personal indebtedness. Serious work seems to be a foreign concept too, to a lot of them.

Qatar Planning $35 Billion of U.S. Investments to Diversify
 

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