The Chinese economy 2019...

These are my thoughts.

Their military strategy for Taiwan is to deter a UDI with explicit threat and incidentally to change the risk/reward calculation of the countries most likely to support one politically and militarily - in their estimation, Japan first and you lot second.
I agree, but it seems their approach is having the exact opposite effect at the moment. Hell even you lot are getting in on this part of the world. Your new installation in the Pacific will change the dimension of things to come. I wonder if we will get an invite to use the facilities as well.
 
I worry about their ability to conduct a first round decapitation strike. An opposed amphibious landing and airborne drop won’t be easy or cheap.
As smartacarrots said, they probably can't win a full shooting war without committing everything and would be so risky, they would be foolish to try. The loss of civilian life would be great enough to force the west into sluggish action and the PRC economy would tank.

The only logical option for an operation like Taiwan, would have a pre-requisite that a % of the population be willing to demonstrate (Sudetenland) and force the Taiwanese into some overreactions which would give the PRC the diplomatic cover of intervening and then your decapitation strike becomes an option. *Carrots says no and that is reassuring to know.
 
As smartacarrots said, they probably can't win a full shooting war without committing everything and would be so risky, they would be foolish to try. The loss of civilian life would be great enough to force the west into sluggish action and the PRC economy would tank.

The only logical option for an operation like Taiwan, would have a pre-requisite that a % of the population be willing to demonstrate (Sudetenland) and force the Taiwanese into some overreactions which would give the PRC the diplomatic cover of intervening and then your decapitation strike becomes an option. *Carrots says no and that is reassuring to know.

A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: What Happens? Who Wins?

An interesting read.
 
Caveat it with the warning that Cole is an unashamed and very vocal advocate of Taiwanese independence who worked for a DPP-run thin tank for a time. His takes on Cross-Straits relations are always predicated on the worst possible decision-making and least admirable motivations from Beijing. My impression has always been that he reverse-engineers his analysis from a start point of, "You guys, we gotta save Taiwan RIGHT NOW!!!"

His suggestion that 'many' Taiwanese businessmen on the Mainland vote KMT isn't borne out by any reputable polling I know of but it was an article of faith that they swayed the 2012 Presidential election in favour of Ma Ying-Jeou - even through no flight records exist to support the idea of the rumoured additional airliftsand in any case the numbers concerned are beyond the capacity of Taiwan's airports to deliver in such a short space of time. Taiwanese businessmen (and students) who've spent time on the Mainland certainly have a less black-and-white view of it and Taiwan's relationship with it but they're not a homogeneous political block by any means.

He's certainly no military analyst and that report contains one of his recurring bloopers: that Taiwan's defence is predicated on 'fighting them on the beaches.' The ROC Armed Forces certainly expects to inflict pain during any landing, but that's only the second phase, the first being interdiction in and over the Straits, moving through an extended urban defence and backstopping with an ulcerous insurgency should the formal resistance fail.

Decapitation strikes wouldn't be effective in any coup de main sense, either. Even if they're able to knock out the Presidency, there are well-established protocols for succession as any layer of government or military is taken out. If the operation is large enough to get them all, it'll cease to be a CDM almost by definition.

I'm not saying discount him, just double-check the assertions he makes against other sources and common sense, and be aware of his extremely partisan stance.
 

overopensights

ADC
Book Reviewer
There were quite a few Westerners piled into China in the earlies thinking it was Wild West territory and they could make a killing, only to discover they were out-Wild Wested by those naive Communists.

Quite a few of the big companies who made noises about pulling out when the authorities began to actually enforce their own rules (BASF and anti-pollution laws, for one) had a chastening experience of who was the bigger player, too.
A good article in The Times today sites the falling domestic market in China as their main cause of the current deficit. Quite opposite to the opinion I held in my post which is apparently wrong.
 
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The following news story is focused on the Huawei/Meng affair, but there is a video interview with a UBC professor (Paul Evans) at the bottom which is relevant to this thread in that he talks about how significantly the economy of China has changed and how many of our previous conceptions about them are outdated. It's definitely worth listening to. The forum software won't let me embed the video directly in this post.
I realised that I had neglected to include the link with the above post. Here it is.
Canadian officials going ahead with China trip, despite tensions with Beijing | CBC News
 
Taiwan and the First Island Chain are not to far from the mainland. They are not going to try to duke it out in the middle of the Pacific.
Are you simply dismissing their surge in carrier building? Surely that would indicate power projection in the Pacific at the very least.
 
Are you simply dismissing their surge in carrier building? Surely that would indicate power projection in the Pacific at the very least.
They have one runt in service with an air group that is extremely limited, and one that is due to be commissioned this year. I would be more worried about their submarine fleet at this point in time.
 
Ironically we've just been pronounced the world’s second most powerful nation (despite Brexit), and ahead of China in the annual audit of geopolitical capability

The Audit’s Chief Analyst, James Rogers, said that the UK voting to leave the EU “has had no discernible impact on the UK’s fundamental ability to apply itself around the World”, but does recommend increased R&D spend and armed forces’ projection capacities to prevent the UK falling behind, particularly in light of China’s naval buildup
 
They have one runt in service with an air group that is extremely limited, and one that is due to be commissioned this year. I would be more worried about their submarine fleet at this point in time.
Sorry, I thought I heard they were planning a sophisticated fleet of western style carriers to complement the Island “carriers” they are building in the South China Sea.
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
RIP
They have one runt in service with an air group that is extremely limited, and one that is due to be commissioned this year. I would be more worried about their submarine fleet at this point in time.
It's not about today. It's where the US will be positioned in twenty or fifty years' time.

China man say softly, softly, catchee Yankee.
 

Yokel

LE
Perhaps we cannot do much about the PRC and their policies, but what we can do is work on our (UK/West strengths):

Integrity
Quality (ISO 9001/AS9100 manufacturing standards)
Moral values
Legal checks and balances

Certain elements in the media and big business, and certain post liberal groups, post a greater danger to the West than Russia or the People's Republic of China, who if nothing else will want the West as trading partners.
 
Sorry, I thought I heard they were planning a sophisticated fleet of western style carriers to complement the Island “carriers” they are building in the South China Sea.
Plans and reality. They are decades behind the US Navy, and you don’t play catch-up overnight.
 
Plans and reality. They are decades behind the US Navy, and you don’t play catch-up overnight.
With bugger all experience in carrier ops and no operational experience aside some border skirmishes.
 

Yokel

LE
With bugger all experience in carrier ops and no operational experience aside some border skirmishes.
How much control does the Chinese Communist Party exercise over the People's Liberation Army? Is it like the old days of the USSR and the Red Navy, when the Politburo did not really trust the Navy?

Another issue: How is Chinese industry gripping the issue of quality? One of the problems with offshoring manufacturing is keeping control of quality?
 
The key word being 'expedition'.

Their warships are designed to operate at short range from friendly ports. Their tanks are designed to operate close to a railhead. Their physical defence support networks are designed wholly for operations from PRC territory.
So not 'expeditionary' at all, then?
 

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