The Chinese economy 2019...

#41
You can infer ignorance from a simple paragraph i knocked out and discount my opinion
Actually, I inferred ignorance from your ignorance. Who's actually governing a country isn't a trivial matter of technical detail when discussing that country's government, it's core to what their response will be.

My assessment that Japan would be willing to fight isn't based on assuming any love for Taiwan, it's based on their repeated policy statements that they would fight against a militarily expansionist PRC backed by their force structure designed to accomplish this.

My assessments are based on knowledge gained in nearly 20 years as an East Asia/Asia-Pacific analyst. I've also lived on Taiwan on and off for a total of 6 years so far and taught IR courses at one of their leading research universities. I'm not assuming anything, I know it.
 
#42
actually it has a lot to answer for - just look at Jaguar/Land Rover. Chinese economy is being used as the excuse for job cuts when we all know its BREXIT.
Sorry, but the fault lies mostly with JLR management. They have misjudged the market and their product line up is no longer competitive. Relied too much on brand and reputation. Their peers have moved up the tech and alternative fuels ladder, and Jaguar missed the big drop in diesel buyers without adjusting their model line up.
 
#43
Actually, I inferred ignorance from your ignorance. Who's actually governing a country isn't a trivial matter of technical detail when discussing that country's government, it's core to what their response will be.

My assessment that Japan would be willing to fight isn't based on assuming any love for Taiwan, it's based on their repeated policy statements that they would fight against a militarily expansionist PRC backed by their force structure designed to accomplish this.

My assessments are based on knowledge gained in nearly 20 years as an East Asia/Asia-Pacific analyst. I've also lived on Taiwan on and off for a total of 6 years so far and taught IR courses at one of their leading research universities. I'm not assuming anything, I know it.
I am really not arguing with you, as the PRC are clearly expansionist and I don't want Taiwan to fall to them.

But, PRC statements seem clear enough and democratic politicians are generally of a weak and feeble nature unless backed by overwealming force. The old KMT anti-communists have died off and dumped most of their amphib capability to boot, hence my speculation.

If you think otherwise, then I stand corrected.
 
#44
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#45
Actually, I inferred ignorance from your ignorance. Who's actually governing a country isn't a trivial matter of technical detail when discussing that country's government, it's core to what their response will be.

My assessment that Japan would be willing to fight isn't based on assuming any love for Taiwan, it's based on their repeated policy statements that they would fight against a militarily expansionist PRC backed by their force structure designed to accomplish this.

My assessments are based on knowledge gained in nearly 20 years as an East Asia/Asia-Pacific analyst. I've also lived on Taiwan on and off for a total of 6 years so far and taught IR courses at one of their leading research universities. I'm not assuming anything, I know it.
Mind if I ask how the younger generation (under 40's) view the PRC?
 
#46
Mind if I ask how the younger generation (under 40's) view the PRC?
It depends on the context in which you ask them. The majority don't make a distinction between 'Taiwan' and 'Republic of China' and if you ask them if they're Chinese using the political sense almost all will say NO! Asking it in a cultural or heritage sense will get a more nuanced range of answers.

Behaviour wise, it's quite interesting: the Taiwanese government recently has been worried about their Brain Drain with the main destination being the Mainland. Anecdotally, a friend whose business is overseas study counselling told me the main difficulty is no longer grabbing a share of the students heading to the US, UK and AUS/NZ but convincing them it's worthwhile going there at all.

The main destinations now are the Philippines for English Language courses and the PRC for degree and postgraduate study. Most young folks thinking of making their careers more mobile see their best professional prospects as being there.

To summarise, you've got a fairly unequivocal immediate response based on emotions and (ironically) 60 years of the KMT telling Taiwanese they're not part of the PRC, contrasting with actions leading to a closer engagement with it.
 
#47
It depends on the context in which you ask them. The majority don't make a distinction between 'Taiwan' and 'Republic of China' and if you ask them if they're Chinese using the political sense almost all will say NO! Asking it in a cultural or heritage sense will get a more nuanced range of answers.

Behaviour wise, it's quite interesting: the Taiwanese government recently has been worried about their Brain Drain with the main destination being the Mainland. Anecdotally, a friend whose business is overseas study counselling told me the main difficulty is no longer grabbing a share of the students heading to the US, UK and AUS/NZ but convincing them it's worthwhile going there at all.

The main destinations now are the Philippines for English Language courses and the PRC for degree and postgraduate study. Most young folks thinking of making their careers more mobile see their best professional prospects as being there.

To summarise, you've got a fairly unequivocal immediate response based on emotions and (ironically) 60 years of the KMT telling Taiwanese they're not part of the PRC, contrasting with actions leading to a closer engagement with it.
Do you ever foresee a time in the future when the current crop of Taiwanese will decided to peacefully reunite with the mainland?
 
#48
Do you ever foresee a time in the future when the current crop of Taiwanese will decided to peacefully reunite with the mainland?
I can foresee a set of conditions under which that could happen - primarily economic but with a strong dose of political reform on the Mainland - but we're far from there and the current hasn't changed that way yet.
 
#49
I can foresee a set of conditions under which that could happen - primarily economic but with a strong dose of political reform on the Mainland - but we're far from there and the current hasn't changed that way yet.
I don't think Xi Jinping is doing much to help that sort of scenario either. He does seem to a bit more openly militant than past Chinese leadership. I do think 2019 will see a big incident in the South China Sea similar to what happened in 2001.
 
#50
I don't think Xi Jinping is doing much to help that sort of scenario either. He does seem to a bit more openly militant than past Chinese leadership. I do think 2019 will see a big incident in the South China Sea similar to what happened in 2001.
Xi in a previous incarnation was Governor of Fujian Province and led on Cross-Straits affairs. He's probably the Politburo member mist familiar with Taiwan and how it works.

Don't mistake excitable post-holiday reporting for a changed position. He's said nothing on Taiwan that hasn't been said year in, year out since Deng.
 
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#51
Xi in a previous incarnation was Governor of Fijian Province and led on Cross-Straits affairs. He's probably the Politburo member mist familiar with Taiwan and how it works.

Don't mistake excitable post-holiday reporting for a changed position. He's said nothing on Taiwan that hasn't been said year in, year out since Deng.
It is the significant increase in capability of the PLAN (to include a tripling of their Marine Corps) PLAAF, and their missile forces that worry me. Their military leadership seems to think that their new toys and capabilities need to be used sooner rather than later.
 
#52
It is the significant increase in capability of the PLAN (to include a tripling of their Marine Corps) PLAAF, and their missile forces that worry me. Their military leadership seems to think that their new toys and capabilities need to be used sooner rather than later.
Well, they're buying a strange set of toys if that's their intention. You don't plan a long-range attack with deliberately short range logistics.
 
#54
It would appear they are trying to adjust those faults every year, and they buying more and more kit to become an expeditionary force.
The key word being 'expedition'.

Their warships are designed to operate at short range from friendly ports. Their tanks are designed to operate close to a railhead. Their physical defence support networks are designed wholly for operations from PRC territory.
 
#56
How is China reacting to (some) manufacturing returning to the UK and other Western nations due to quality, responsiveness, and transport cost issues? How much of an issue does the Communist Party have with dissent and public opposition?
 
#57
The key word being 'expedition'.

Their warships are designed to operate at short range from friendly ports. Their tanks are designed to operate close to a railhead. Their physical defence support networks are designed wholly for operations from PRC territory.
Taiwan and the First Island Chain are not to far from the mainland. They are not going to try to duke it out in the middle of the Pacific.
 
#58
It is the significant increase in capability of the PLAN (to include a tripling of their Marine Corps) PLAAF, and their missile forces that worry me. Their military leadership seems to think that their new toys and capabilities need to be used sooner rather than later.
That was the angle I was exploring with the recent perspective of the Russian takeover of crimea in my mind, you don't have to start off with an Incheon.

One assumes if someone started funding trouble, could a part of Taiwan be stirred up enough to give the PRC a chance to land SF and take the island by coup d'main, despite the sizable Taiwanese military they may not fight as the Czech army failed to fight when the germans rolled into Prague.

Smartacarrots thinks not, he has the ground truth that I don't have and I hope he is right.
 
#59
Taiwan and the First Island Chain are not to far from the mainland. They are not going to try to duke it out in the middle of the Pacific.
These are my thoughts.

Their military strategy for Taiwan is to deter a UDI with explicit threat and incidentally to change the risk/reward calculation of the countries most likely to support one politically and militarily - in their estimation, Japan first and you lot second.
 
#60
That was the angle I was exploring with the recent perspective of the Russian takeover of crimea in my mind, you don't have to start off with an Incheon.

One assumes if someone started funding trouble, could a part of Taiwan be stirred up enough to give the PRC a chance to land SF and take the island by coup d'main, despite the sizable Taiwanese military they may not fight as the Czech army failed to fight when the germans rolled into Prague.

Smartacarrots thinks not, he has the ground truth that I don't have and I hope he is right.
I worry about their ability to conduct a first round decapitation strike. An opposed amphibious landing and airborne drop won’t be easy or cheap.
 

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