The Bush & Brown Show

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Zaphodski, Jun 17, 2008.

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  1. - ex BBC:

    Question for all: is there anything to draw from this? The BBC bloke on the news last light claims it's referring to Iran. If so, does this mean that GWB has decided NOT to do Op Iranian Freedom unilaterally, but to leave any UNILATERAL action to his successor? On the assumption (I know...) that any successor is less likely to choose that route, does this de facto give Israel the notice "it's your show to go it alone"?

    Thoughts on a postcard. Zap
  2. No takers? Please tell me if this is something no-one is prepared to comment on - have I missed a sticky not to speculate on the subject?

    I'm toying with scenarios IF folk can't contain their excitement, and decide to go down the tearful route.

    1. US alone - though I'm sure GWB would love to, there's possibly sufficient resistance at home to make him decide against it. Hence my question. Intent would doubtless be to do it quickly and cleanly, but that's the intent, and assumes the red team plays the same game...

    2. US with everyone else (ie UK) - exceptionally unlikely as no-one wants to go there and no-one feels any obligation to support another adventure.

    3. US with Israel - bog all chance.

    4. Israel alone - IF they really did come to think the threat is existential then a certainty if nothing else happens. Would be exceptionally nasty/messy, possibly even with instant sunshine should Israel feel that's what's needed.

    Any takers? Z
  3. All i can see from that report and from what's ''apparently'' been said by the two heads.
    Is that they're quite happy to turn iraq/afghanistan into another Northern ireland.

    British Army becomes the police all over again.

    Iran? Hmmm, maybe they wanna keep that one quiet coz there's no way our troops will stretch to both jobs.
    Not in this lifetime.

    Some good points raised however Zaphodski

  4. I'm thinking option

    5. US, UK, and Israel on limited strikes to remove as much defense from Iran and possibly strike the nuclear facilities and then a defensive posture. I do not see any kind of invasion but I do see air/missile/Mossad strikes.

    If Iran goes offensive they would need to invade Iraq or Afganistan or Israel, they are screwed as it would give the rest of the international community the excuse they need to get involved.
  5. imho, that is the most likely option. A nuclear armed Iran would be very bad for everyone, but Israel for one, will not let it get that far.

  6. Thanks for the thoughts. My gut says joint with Israel is the least likely possibility - that's the end of any US relationship with the Islamic world - goodbye Iraq, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, the lot.

    My fear is the Israel alone option. As I understand, the IAF can't even reach all sites and get home again. They'd have to cross hostile airspace to get there. How many nights of ops would they have? Only 1 if they don't want the transit routes to become causus bellum. How many targets? 100-200, buried, hardened. How do you ensure they are all taken out in one go? Something MUCH bigger than a single "bunker buster" - like unconventional... They'd also have to make their neighbours think "this is NOT the time to take advantage of half the IAF ditched in the desert" - ie Israel would have to appear dementedly scary. All that spells pre-emptive canned sunshine. Nasty thought. Hope it's as abhorrent to them as it is to me.

    But, if they really do believe it's their last chance before Mr Ahmedinejad wipes them off the map, then why wouldn't they? After the event, sure, they'd be the no 1 hated folk on Earth - what's new?