The Brexit Consequences Thread

Discussion in 'Brexit' started by Sarastro, Jun 25, 2016.

Welcome to the Army Rumour Service, ARRSE

The UK's largest and busiest UNofficial military website.

The heart of the site is the forum area, including:

  1. Rubbish we are not going to deport the residence of the second largest city of France ie London and we unfortunately won't be deporting x million eastern Europeans. You will be fine. This was a vote were the people of Britain recognised that Brussels is a proxy for the German government and soon others will see this too.
     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Disagree Disagree x 2
  2. Offendi

    Offendi On ROPs


    Ireland is extremely concerned about trade - the UK being the biggest trading partner.

    They are also very concerned about the border as it's the only land border between the UK and the EU.

    The general consensus is that the common travel area will continue to function, one way or another.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  3. Cold_Collation

    Cold_Collation LE Book Reviewer

    A near 50/50 split isn't really a victory. It's just a division. That will bite with some people but the reality is that those whinging wouldn't be baying for a second count if the vote had been so close but in their favour.

    The presumption of many is that if we had a cooling-off period or another vote there'd be a collective 'Oh f**k!' moment and this 'wrong' vote would correct itself. That's not necessarily the case - I used the word 'presumption' rather than 'assumption' really quite deliberately.

    I've come away from this all feeling really quite flat. A friend called me from overseas yesterday and asked how I felt. My response was neither victorious nor magnanimous. I am concerned, certainly, but I would also have been concerned by a remain vote - because the EU as is simply cannot continue. It is bloated and underperforming in relative terms, and currently the solution to many of the glaring structural issues is to ignore them. My feeling is that even with a remain victory, the EU would be gone within a decade because of issues in addition to immigration.

    A lot of people might gloat over that. I don't. In many respects we are stronger together. There were sound reasons for the formation of a Common Market and they are still relevant. However, politicians', especially unelected politicians', hubris cannot go unchecked. People can talk about the fig leaf of sovereignty but we've also called emperor's new clothes on this. We've blown away the conceit of 'once you're, you're in'. That is not democracy - any more than a German minister threatening other countries not to follow our example, or calls for rule changes to prevent referenda.

    At this stage, I don't think anyone can predict what will happen. Okay, so we've seen the currency hit. That was inevitable - trust me, it was always going to happen. The surprise is that people were even surprised. There will be a bounce.

    The most I think anyone can say is that we will be the catalyst for something. Better or worse depends on individuals' points of view. Perhaps a better way to look at it is to consider that we will trigger a correction of some sort. Things will settle and a correction was, is sorely needed.

    There won't be a Kristallnacht. People won't be burnt out of homes and chased into the sea. We're not savages. The 'far Right' did not win yesterday, despite the hysterical proclamations of some. The effects of all this will, I think, be far less dramatic than many fear or have claimed. I don't see an immediate, inevitable diminution of workers' rights, for instance. Any attempt to get away with that would last only as far as a swing vote at the next election. The same can be said for environmental legislation, etc. - we may in any case be required to retain many of these things in order to remain a trading partner with the EU. Some of the fears are absurd.

    It's a new day. There'll be another to follow today, and another to follow that. And that, really, is that.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2016
    • Like Like x 28
    • Dislike Dislike x 1
  4. France suggest moving the UK's border back onto UK soil, meaning the migrant camp in Calais would be moved from France to the UK.

    As the UK currently conduct border control operations in Calais, post EU exit, France no longer have to allow that.

    Makes the task of crossing the channel as a migrant much easier.

    EU Brexit referendum: France's Calais seeks border deal changes - BBC News
     
    • Like Like x 1
  5. rampant

    rampant LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    Jeremy's argument was the backlash against the political class would be massive and I'm knclined to agree. But you are right, as observed on this site, blame for the falling pound and stock market has been placed on Cameron and Carney et al for talking our economy down, when in reality it's a direct market response to the democratic vote which, imo, is the most outstanding examples of economic and political self harm I have ever witnessed. There is a massive disconnect between voters awareness of their actions and reality.

    On another point, socual media is reporting, anecdotally, that the racist knuckledragging elements of our society feels their views have been vindicated and have become emboldened, many people from ethnic minorities have been reporting a rise in racust, chuck them out deport them style encounters. This is another deeply worrying consequence of the vote.

    Thus analysis is quite interesting mind



    Need to get link for full report.
     
    • Like Like x 4
  6. 6 founding EU nations in talks to discuss soft EU membership for remaining EU countries who are not keen on further integration in an attempt to discourage other countries leaving.

    (Dutch site, where i am)

    Zes oprichters EU praten over toekomst
     
    • Like Like x 3
  7. How would that work? We are an island, they would have to get here first. Sticking them onto the first boat back to France should fix that.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  8. Or more likely of running out of stock.
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  9. They would have to actually come to the UK before they could be turned around and would need to be fed, watered, etc... while they were processed to determine if they could stay or not, so the camps would be in dover or folkstone probably.​
     
  10. Probably raise the property values in Dover then....
     
  11. Well the French will have a view about that and I'm not sure that sticking them back on a boat to France will work. The reality is that French are hardly going to accept them back once they have left their shores.

    The only way to stop them would be to put the responsibility on the ferry companies to check the status of their passengers and make them responsible for any illegal passengers. A massive fine on the ferry company for each individual who made it to the UK may work.

    At the very least, the fine would pay for the upkeep of the individual until they had exhausted their legal application and if they failed to win refugee status, it would also pay for their flight back to wherever.

    Don't expect the French to make it easy by just accepting back off the boats anybody that we want them to though. That's just plain daft to think that they would.
     
    • Like Like x 3
  12. Fang_Farrier

    Fang_Farrier LE Reviewer Book Reviewer


    And how prey tell, do they reach these shores in the first place, crossing a highly policed piece of well covered sea is not exactly the same as the vast uncontrolled stretches of the Med?

    You are aware that the Channel is already one of the most highly monitored bits of water in the world due to the already high volumes of traffic in it?
     
  13. Or they could just be denied access immediately and sent back to the safe country that they came from, immediately. I'm sure that most of us have seen it happen at ports and airports in the past.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  14. Just how would they get to the UK, they are illegal immigrants, they in most cases have no documentation i.e passports and with out a passport or visa your not getting on a train or ferry. If they were to try and cross the channel thats another matter.
     
    • Like Like x 1