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The Brexit Consequences Thread

If the EU collapses and it can be attributed to BREXIT, the Remoaners will declare it a disaster and a disgrace that we caused it.

If the EU collapses for some other reason (greek debt, Italian bank collapse, right wing take-overs, whatever) then the Remoaners will declare it a disaster and say it was a disgrace we weren't there to prevent it.

If the EU proceeds to greater unity and all the problems that may cause, the Remoamers will declare it a disaster because we weren't there to exercise our veto.

If the EU miraculously finds its way becomes a proper trading block without the political baggage and becomes a success, the Remoaners will declare it a disaster because we're not in it.
Absolutely spot on!
 
Yes, odd ones like the one of Salmond early on:
The question from Chris Philp is an illustration of the fact that the consequences of the Bill go much further than the Secretary of State is telling us. Is not the reason why the Government find themselves in a position of such abasement to President Trump that they have decided to abandon the high ground of the single marketplace, without so much as a negotiating word being spoken? That is why they are desperate to do a deal with anybody on any terms at any time. Why did the Secretary of State lead this country into a position of such weakness?

Sad, but interesting from Clarke a bit later:
I am very fortunate to be called this early. I apologise to my right hon. Friend—my old friend—but 93 other Members are still waiting to be called, so if he will forgive me, I will not give way.

The Conservative Governments in which I served made very positive contributions to the development of the European Union. There were two areas in which we were the leading contender and made a big difference. The first was when the Thatcher Government led the way in the creation of the single market. The customs union—the so-called common market—had served its purpose, but regulatory barriers matter more than tariffs in the modern world. But for the Thatcher Government, the others would not have been induced to remove those barriers, and I think that the British benefited more from the single market than any other member state. It has contributed to our comparative economic success today.

We were always the leading Government after the fall of the Soviet Union in the process of enlargement to eastern Europe, taking in the former Soviet states. That was an extremely important political contribution. After the surprising collapse of the Soviet Union, eastern and central Europe could have collapsed into its traditional anarchy, nationalist rivalry and military regimes that preceded the second world war. We pressed the urgency of bringing in these new independent nations, giving them the goal of the European Union, which meant liberal democracy, free market trade and so forth. We made Europe a much more stable place.

That has been our role in the European Union, and I believe that it is a very bad move, particularly for our children and grandchildren, that we are all sitting here now saying that we are embarking on a new unknown future. I shall touch on that in a moment, because I think the position is simply baffling to every friend of the British and of the United Kingdom throughout the world. That is why I shall vote against the Bill.

Let me deal with the arguments that I should not vote in that way, that I am being undemocratic, that I am quite wrong, and that, as an elected Member of Parliament, I am under a duty to vote contrary to the views I have just given. I am told that this is because we held a referendum. First, I am in the happy situation that my opposition to referendums as an instrument of government is quite well known and has been frequently repeated throughout my political career. I have made no commitment to accept a referendum, and particularly this referendum, when such an enormous question, with hundreds of complex issues wrapped up within it, was to be decided by a simple yes/no answer on one day. That was particularly unsuitable for a plebiscite of that kind, and that point was reinforced by the nature of the debate.

Constitutionally, when the Government tried to stop the House from having a vote, they did not go to the Supreme Court arguing that a referendum bound the House and that that was why we should not have a vote. The referendum had always been described as advisory in everything that the Government put out. There is no constitutional standing for referendums in this country. No sensible country has referendums—the United States and Germany do not have them in their political systems. The Government went to the Supreme Court arguing for the archaic constitutional principle of the royal prerogative—that the Executive somehow had absolute power when it came to dealing with treaties. Not surprisingly, they lost.

What about the position of Members of Parliament? There is no doubt that by an adequate but narrow majority, leave won the referendum campaign. I will not comment on the nature of the campaign. Those arguments that got publicity in the national media on both sides were, on the whole, fairly pathetic. I have agreed in conversation with my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union that he and I can both tell ourselves that neither of us used the dafter arguments that were put forward by the people we were allied with. It was not a very serious debate on the subject. I do not recall the view that £350 million a week would be available for the health service coming from the Brexit Secretary, and I did not say that we going to have a Budget to put up income tax and all that kind of thing. It was all quite pathetic.

Let me provide an analogy—a loose one but, I think, not totally loose—explaining the position of Members of Parliament after this referendum. I have fought Lord knows how many elections over the past 50 years, and I have always advocated voting Conservative. The British public, in their wisdom, have occasionally failed to take my advice and have by a majority voted Labour. I have thus found myself here facing a Labour Government, but I do not recall an occasion when I was told that it was my democratic duty to support Labour policies and the Labour Government on the other side of the House. That proposition, if put to Mr Skinner in opposition or myself, would have been treated with ridicule and scorn. Apparently, I am now being told that despite voting as I did in the referendum, I am somehow an enemy of the people for ignoring my instructions and for sticking to the opinions that I expressed rather strongly, at least in my meetings, when I urged people to vote the other way.

I have no intention of changing my opinion on the ground. Indeed, I am personally convinced that the hard-core Eurosceptics in my party, with whom I have enjoyed debating this issue for decades, would not have felt bound in the slightest by the outcome of the referendum to abandon their arguments—[Interruption.] I do not say that as criticism; I am actually on good terms with the hard-line Eurosceptics because I respect their sincerity and the passionate nature of their beliefs. If I ever live to see my hon. Friend Sir William Cash turn up here and vote in favour of Britain remaining in the European Union, I will retract what I say, but hot tongs would not make him vote for membership of the EU.

I must move on, but I am told that I should vote for my party as we are on a three-line Whip. I am a Conservative; I have been a decently loyal Conservative over the years. The last time I kicked over the traces was on the Lisbon treaty, when for some peculiar reason my party got itself on the wrong side of the argument, but we will pass over that. I would point out to those who say that I am somehow being disloyal to my party by not voting in favour of this Bill that I am merely propounding the official policy of the Conservative party for 50 years until 23 June 2016. I admire my colleagues who can suddenly become enthusiastic Brexiteers, having seen a light on the road to Damascus on the day that the vote was cast, but I am afraid that that light has been denied me.

I feel the spirit of my former colleague, Enoch Powell—I rather respected him, aside from one or two of his extreme views—who was probably the best speaker for the Eurosceptic cause I ever heard in this House of Commons. If he were here, he would probably find it amazing that his party had become Eurosceptic and rather mildly anti-immigrant, in a very strange way, in 2016. Well, I am afraid that, on that issue, I have not followed it, and I do not intend to do so.

There are very serious issues that were not addressed in the referendum: the single market and the customs union. They must be properly debated. It is absurd to say that every elector knew the difference between the customs union and the single market, and that they took a careful and studied view of the basis for our future trading relations with Europe.

The fact is that I admire the Prime Minister and her colleagues for their constant propounding of the principles of free trade. My party has not changed on that. We are believers in free trade and see it as a win-win situation. We were the leading advocate of liberal economic policies among the European powers for many years, so we are free traders. It seems to me unarguable that if we put between us and the biggest free market in the world new tariffs, new regulatory barriers, new customs procedures, certificates of origin and so on, we are bound to be weakening the economic position from what it would otherwise have been, other things being equal, in future. That is why it is important that this issue is addressed in particular.

I am told that that view is pessimistic, and that we are combining withdrawal from the single market and the customs union with a great new globalised future that offers tremendous opportunities for us. Apparently, when we follow the rabbit down the hole, we will emerge in a wonderland where, suddenly, countries throughout the world are queuing up to give us trading advantages and access to their markets that we were never able to achieve as part of the European Union. Nice men like President Trump and President Erdogan are impatient to abandon their normal protectionism and give us access. Let me not be too cynical; I hope that that is right. I do want the best outcome for the United Kingdom from this process. No doubt somewhere a hatter is holding a tea party with a dormouse in the teapot.

We need success in these trade negotiations to recoup at least some of the losses that we will incur as a result of leaving the single market. If all is lost on the main principle, that is the big principle that the House must get control of and address seriously, in proper debates and votes, from now on.

I hope that I have adequately explained that my views on this issue have not been shaken very much over the decades—they have actually strengthened somewhat. Most Members, I trust, are familiar with Burke’s address to the electors of Bristol. I have always firmly believed that every MP should vote on an issue of this importance according to their view of the best national interest. I never quote Burke, but I shall paraphrase him. He said to his constituents, “If I no longer give you the benefit of my judgment and simply follow your orders, I am not serving you; I am betraying you.” I personally shall be voting with my conscience content, and when we see what unfolds hereafter as we leave the European Union, I hope that the consciences of other Members of Parliament will remain equally content.


Then just before 2300, Berry said:
This House was right to decide in 2015, with just 53 votes to the contrary, that an in/out referendum should determine Britain’s continued membership of the EU. The referendum was the biggest exercise in democracy since the 1992 general election. The majority voted to leave and this House, this seat of democracy, would set a worrying precedent by frustrating that result tomorrow.

When I went into the polling station with my wife on 23 June, I did so knowing, as I had told many voters in the previous days and weeks, that our votes would count and that it was important to vote. It was important because there would be no going back and the result of the referendum would settle the question of whether or not we remained in the EU. Ironically, given the position of his party today, it was the leader of the Liberal Democrats who said:

“there is one thing on which I can agree with the Leave campaign: This is a once-in-a-generation decision.”

The very high turnout in the referendum suggests that that is what the majority of people understood.

For all the arguments advanced now about binding and advisory referendums, not one person told me that they voted on 23 June thinking that Parliament might override the result at some later stage. They were right to have that confidence, because that is what they were told by multiple sources: the Conservative manifesto; the Government’s official referendum leaflet; the leave campaign; the remain campaign; and leaders of political parties. In those circumstances, it would be unconscionable to block the result of the referendum. As Wes Streeting said in a powerful speech, that is simply not an option.

We are being urged to go back on those clear averments, by a minority of people—and I think by a minority of people who voted to remain—who want to find a way to block a result that they, like me, find disappointing. I want to explain why I disagree with the four main arguments they make.


All in all, fairly longwinded, some silly, some flippant, some almost laughable, but interesting nevertheless.

True. None of usual brouhaha. Thought Ken was good though.
 
If the EU collapses and it can be attributed to BREXIT, the Remoaners will declare it a disaster and a disgrace that we caused it.

Errr... yes. Fairly obvious that one!

If the EU collapses for some other reason (greek debt, Italian bank collapse, right wing take-overs, whatever) then the Remoaners will declare it a disaster and say it was a disgrace we weren't there to prevent it.

Moving swiftly along from that bizarre conclusion...

If the EU proceeds to greater unity and all the problems that may cause, the Remoamers will declare it a disaster because we weren't there to exercise our veto.

No, that one is also a very strange suggestion. I'm sure lots of people with have lots of different opinions, but I don't think 'disaster' fits here.

If the EU miraculously finds its way becomes a proper trading block without the political baggage and becomes a success, the Remoaners will declare it a disaster because we're not in it.

More or less. Remoaners in general are and in this case will remain unhappy about being ripped out of the EU, but there's no change there really.

I don't think your post was the greatest insight in to the mind of a remain voter.
 
Errr... yes. Fairly obvious that one!



Moving swiftly along from that bizarre conclusion...



No, that one is also a very strange suggestion. I'm sure lots of people with have lots of different opinions, but I don't think 'disaster' fits here.



More or less. Remoaners in general are and in this case will remain unhappy about being ripped out of the EU, but there's no change there really.

I think your post was the greatest insight in to the mind of a remain voter.

Unlike you to make a small slip in your post, but never mind, fixed now ;)
 
True. None of usual brouhaha. Thought Ken was good though.

It was. Certainly one of the best I felt would indicate what was happening although there were some other good ones but to include more would take up a lot of room. I totally disagree with Clarke's point of view concerning the referendum/Brexit but admire the way he puts it.
 
It was. Certainly one of the best I felt would indicate what was happening although there were some other good ones but to include more would take up a lot of room. I totally disagree with Clarke's point of view concerning the referendum/Brexit but admire the way he puts it.

I think everyone's realising this is serious stuff and behaving accordingly. My current default setting seems to be 'Oh Shit, what now'
 
It was. Certainly one of the best I felt would indicate what was happening although there were some other good ones but to include more would take up a lot of room. I totally disagree with Clarke's point of view concerning the referendum/Brexit but admire the way he puts it.

He has stuck his line for decades so is honourable...... Unlike many in the place who jump ship for favours or advancement.....
 
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