The Brexit Consequences Thread

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
BL will along in a second to tell you that it won't be happening and that Brexit will be reversed imminently. For a man so well versed in strategy, he is quite simply unable to comprehend the mistakes that the EU have made every step of the way. He is the best CGS that the Army never had! :-D
I'm enjoying the show. Please carry on.
 
Grac, sorry but I'm struggling to work out WTAF the German constitutional court has to do with HS2?...

JB
Not the recent decision, one from 2014 but here's a quick and dirty answer, I've posted similar links a number of times but aside from the obiter this one draws in specific German references.

The Supreme Court’s conclusion therefore was that, if there was a conflict between EU law and a principle of the United Kingdom constitution, that conflict would have to be resolved by our national courts as an issue arising under our constitutional law. It was said that, putting the point at its lowest, it was certainly arguable that there were fundamental principles, whether contained in other constitutional instruments or recognised at common law, of which Parliament when it enacted the 1972 Act did not either contemplate or authorise the abrogation

https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/speech-141114.pdf
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Meanwhile blood pressure in the EU no doubt continues to rise.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ints-system-migrants-need-70-points-eligible/
Migrants will need 70 points to be eligible to work in the UK following the introduction of a new immigration points system. Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, will be setting out the details of the new system through a policy document and written ministerial statement, which is due around 10.30am.

The document will outline how those looking to live in the UK can get enough points to migrate to a post-Brexit Britain.

Migrants will need to ensure they have 70 points if they wish to live in the UK. A job offer and appropriate skill level of A-level or above will result in 20 points respectively, while fluency in English will equate to 10 points. Occupations where there is a job shortage in the UK will mean 20 points; a PhD in a subject relevant to the job will mean a further 10 points and a PhD in a STEM subject will equal 20 points. Meanwhile a salary of £23,040 – £25,599 will be worth 10 points and a salary of £25,599 or above, 20 points.
English translation: we only want you if you're skilled - unskilled economic migrants can forget it.

Which the EU will hate because it (a) ends free movement and (b) means that only the 'best and brightest' get into the UK, with the less employable stuck in the EU.

Coming from Barnier in the next few days: another whinge that the UK is not respecting the EU's position.

Nope - at long last British interests are being prioritised above those of the EU.

Wordsmith
 
Meanwhile blood pressure in the EU no doubt continues to rise.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ints-system-migrants-need-70-points-eligible/


English translation: we only want you if you're skilled - unskilled economic migrants can forget it.

Which the EU will hate because it (a) ends free movement and (b) means that only the 'best and brightest' get into the UK, with the less employable stuck in the EU.

Coming from Barnier in the next few days: another whinge that the UK is not respecting the EU's position.

Nope - at long last British interests are being prioritised above those of the EU.

Wordsmith
My colleague and his mrs have just gone over there.
 
BL is reminiscent of the madman who repeatedly banged his head against the wall.

When asked why he did it, the madman replied "it's such fun when I stop..."

Wordsmith
This chap reminds me of the not too bright Colonel....

8333CAF1-68A6-4BD3-87D2-0BBB75CC9B6B.gif
 
It doesn't though really. In order to grow the demand for the increasing supply created by the almost uninterrupted Wirtschaftswunder since the 1960's, Germany was instrumental in the 'Common Market'. Every step of the way they have been among the prime movers for reduction of tariffs, frictionless borders and standardised industrial norms. In more recent decades they have primed the economic pump with unbelievably enormous loans (And staggering levels of corruption) to potential customers in order to keep the Junkers' order books full and the cash flowing through the veins of their economy. Now they can't stop or everything comes crashing down. The wheels have to spin ever faster just to keep up. They have no choice and no obvious path to redemption in the near future.
Instrumental in? Not disputing they are part of it, but instrumental? The whole point of the Common market was the harmonisation of trade by the standardisation of tariffs across the CM. That implies a fixed income from each country plus the level of inflation.

The level of corruption was always there. In more recent decades the collaboration of this country’s government made it easy, that was the point of people like Mandelson. That was why Blair ultimately got rid of the Customs department here, because in breach of WTO rules there was little reason to have a verifiable system. That’s the underlying lie. Thatcher handedFrance the means to keep control of Germany.
Europe depends on exponential growth and a commensurate increase in taxes. They can’t do it, so more money has to be squeezed from individual treasuries. It’s Macron’s idea to have a centralised financial office in Brussels for the EUro zone, something that should have been done from the inception of the EUro
 
Instrumental in? Not disputing they are part of it, but instrumental? The whole point of the Common market was the harmonisation of trade by the standardisation of tariffs across the CM. That implies a fixed income from each country plus the level of inflation.

The level of corruption was always there. In more recent decades the collaboration of this country’s government made it easy, that was the point of people like Mandelson. That was why Blair ultimately got rid of the Customs department here, because in breach of WTO rules there was little reason to have a verifiable system. That’s the underlying lie. Thatcher handedFrance the means to keep control of Germany.
Europe depends on exponential growth and a commensurate increase in taxes. They can’t do it, so more money has to be squeezed from individual treasuries. It’s Macron’s idea to have a centralised financial office in Brussels for the EUro zone, something that should have been done from the inception of the EUro
France needs a piggy bank and Germany needs French markets.
 
The problem is this:

View attachment 489424

There is a huge bill inbound either to save the euro or resulting from its disintegration. Of which 750 billion euros will be a mere drop in the ocean. I've been forecasting for years that the next recession will finish off the euro - and now that recession is here. Within 6 - 12 months the interest rates for Italian sovereign debt will be climbing to unaffordable levels and Italy will be travelling down the well-trodden path followed by Greece, Portugal, Cyrpus, Ireland and (partially) Spain in the last recession. With the added bonus that an Italian banking failure is liable to bring down the French banking system as well. That bill is not going to be easily digestible - more like indigestible.

Serendipity it may be, but we're leaving the EU just in time to avoid the EU trying to gouge us for funds to sort out the impending fuster cluck. Which is going to require a truckload of popcorn to watch..

Wordsmith
Yes, the bill will be huge.
It was madness to lock up economies of different performance in the euro together. Mitterand's gift to rein in the Germans has brought Europe nothing but good.
All he had to do was look at the East and see that Germany realistically would not be a danger for the next decades, because it had to build a totally ailing East.

All Euronations are in deep trouble and it will not get better.

In the last recession the ECB decided that the Euro has to be saved, "whatever it takes" and this is exactly what will happen in further recessions. The debt will grow gigantic, but realistically there is no way out of the Euro without destroying or damaging the German economy and a whole lot of other European economies.

On top there is the Target 2 balance of only 995,082,753,544.92 Euros and everyone can see that Germany must ride this storm out.

Euro, the gift that keeps giving.
 
Yes, the bill will be huge.
It was madness to lock up economies of different performance in the euro together. Mitterand's gift to rein in the Germans has brought Europe nothing but good.
All he had to do was look at the East and see that Germany realistically would not be a danger for the next decades, because it had to build a totally ailing East.

All Euronations are in deep trouble and it will not get better.

In the last recession the ECB decided that the Euro has to be saved, "whatever it takes" and this is exactly what will happen in further recessions. The debt will grow gigantic, but realistically there is no way out of the Euro without destroying or damaging the German economy and a whole lot of other European economies.

On top there is the Target 2 balance of only 995,082,753,544.92 Euros and everyone can see that Germany must ride this storm out.

Euro, the gift that keeps giving.
To be fair, Margaret Thatcher didn't exactly stand in Mitterand's way...
 
You forgot the bit about how she consistently and ruthlessly removes anyone who looks like they might replace her. She is Bundeskanzlerin on 26% of the votes cast at the last general election: That is political manoeuvring of the finest sort.
Yes, she is power-conscious, unscrupulous and always ready to tear away enemies. But there is also a lot of stupidity on the part of the voters and the coalition partner, the SPD.
A "No experiments" attitude and this dammned "Calmness is the first civic duty" has always been the problem of the Germans.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
France needs a piggy bank and Germany needs French markets.
Germany gamed the euro and got rich by exporting to other EU members, while importing ever less in return. Which is why Germany has been paying down it's sovereign debt over the bulk of the last decade, while the other member states have been increasing their debt to pay for all the stuff they're importing from Germany.

It's akin to a married couple with a joint mortgage. Mutti has said, "I'll be fiscally responsible", while saying to Marcon "go ahead and maximise your credit cards. You'll end up bankrupt in the future, but pretend it won't happen". One partner might have looked after their finances, but the house is still going to end up repossessed.

That particular chicken is on final approach with undercarriage extended in readiness for landing.

I suspect large parts of the EU are (at best) about to turn into Zombie economies - too indebted to invest for the future. It's not going to be pretty.

The UK has an escape route from the present fuster cluck. But it depends on Group Captain Boris leading UK PLC over the border to safety. Entirely possible, but not yet a done deal.

Wordsmith
 
Meanwhile blood pressure in the EU no doubt continues to rise.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ints-system-migrants-need-70-points-eligible/


English translation: we only want you if you're skilled - unskilled economic migrants can forget it.

Which the EU will hate because it (a) ends free movement and (b) means that only the 'best and brightest' get into the UK, with the less employable stuck in the EU.

Coming from Barnier in the next few days: another whinge that the UK is not respecting the EU's position.

Nope - at long last British interests are being prioritised above those of the EU.

Wordsmith
This - of course - will ONLY apply to those arriving through the "front door", that is Heathrow/Gatwick.

The unskilled, unwelcome, illegals, will still arrive via cross-channel inflatables, and the efficient BF "taxi" service :( !!
 
To be fair, Margaret Thatcher didn't exactly stand in Mitterand's way...
I can certainly understand the British and the French with their doubts about Germany. Two world wars with millions dead and a genocide are not taken lightly.
On the other hand I always liked Thatcher. If the stories are true she handbagged that fat, lying, dumb and criminal barsteward Kohl more than once.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
This - of course - will ONLY apply to those arriving through the "front door", that is Heathrow/Gatwick.

The unskilled, unwelcome, illegals, will still arrive via cross-channel inflatables, and the efficient BF "taxi" service :( !!
There are other pieces to the jigsaw. Such as no entitlement to benefits until you have paid tax for 4 years, plus heavy fines for companies that employ illegal immigrants.

People won't come if they don't get benefits, and companies won't employ them if getting caught doing it puts you out of business.

Take away the incentives to come to the UK, and the flow of people will slow.

Wordsmith
 
There are other pieces to the jigsaw. Such as no entitlement to benefits until you have paid tax for 4 years, plus heavy fines for companies that employ illegal immigrants.

People won't come if they don't get benefits, and companies won't employ them if getting caught doing it puts you out of business.

Take away the incentives to come to the UK, and the flow of people will slow.

Wordsmith
What, you think that displaced people are travelling halfway round the world, crossing friendly continents in order to reach UK just because of our generosity?

That's madness.

They're here to help us build a better place, and we should welcome their commitment and sacrifice.

Black lives matter.
 

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