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The Brexit Consequences Thread

If there is such a thing, and I can't be bothered to look it up, it won't outlaw your existing coffee maker or the use thereof. And if you like to drink coffee that's been stewing for over twenty minutes, then I think you have other issues.

It was all a cunning energy saving wheeze, the plebs couldn't be trusted to turn off their coffee machines when finished so a 20min limit was placed on the hotplate for all new machines. So instead of 1 boil cycle and 1 hour or more on the hotplate, plebs now have 1 boil cycle and 20 mins on the hotplate and of course NEVER turn the machine on again and go through a redundant boil cycle to get another 20 mins hotplate and NEVER EVER turn it on for the third time for yet another redundant boil cycle to get another 20 mins....

Madness gone mad I tells ya....

JB
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
The above.
When you really don't understand the world and should surrender your car keys to a responsible adult.
From the same source the troll @Brotherton Lad gets his info.

"A 2005 paper from a UN body said: “The [European] Commission does allow the establishment of free zones within its territory but its definition of free zone is a very narrow one.” "


I think you're right - I found a second paper saying the same thing as yours:


It basically says that, yes, the EU does allow freeports, but EU rules mean they deliver less of an economic benefit than in the rest of the world. I also looked up @tgo 's Wiki list. A lot of the EU freeports cited seem to predate the EU, for example, the ones in Sweden.

Next, (from my link), the EU is trying to ban freeports.
In April 2019 the European Parliament called for freeports to be scrapped across the EU as a result of a report on tax evasion and money laundering. The report argues that freeports provide operators “with a safe and widely disregarded storage space, where trade can be conducted untaxed and ownership can be concealed.”

Having done a little bit more reading on freeports, it would appear that freeports are effective if the regulations creating them are carefully designed. If not, they merely cannibalise trade from the areas outside of them. So, like so many Brexit related things, the success of the freeports will depend on location and how effective BoJo's government is at framing the legislation for them.

Wordsnith
 
Nothing. I'm just not relentlessly optimistic about the impact of a no-deal Brexit on import duties, customs checks, and just-in-time logistics,.

Tell you what, if those proposed truck parks in Kent never see any use, I'll be chuffed to bits. I'll breathe a huge sigh of relief that there aren't queues of lorries sitting on the M20 waiting for their customs paperwork to be sorted out. If the deal means that after import duties it's still cheaper to produce gearboxes or engines in the UK than France, brilliant.

Do these things give you any cause for concern?
As one of the bosses for the road hauliers, being interviewed because Portsmouth docks might have been in a similar position made clear. "Why would we send our most expensive and important assets, the trucks and drivers, out on the road without the paperwork being correctly completed when we know they'd be hanging around at the docks. It makes no sense".
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
As one of the bosses for the road hauliers, being interviewed because Portsmouth docks might have been in a similar position made clear. "Why would we send our most expensive and important assets, the trucks and drivers, out on the road without the paperwork being correctly completed when we know they'd be hanging around at the docks. It makes no sense".

@Gravelbelly is like so many in the Remain camp. He assumes that if problems are there, they will perpetuate because no one will fix them. I fully expect problems when the new systems get cranked up, but people will immediately start to address them.

My personal guess - based on putting my finger in the air - is that the bulk of the problems will be ironed out by June/July 2021.

In any case, the true test of Brexit is does it deliver better economic performance over a couple of decades? What happens in the initial 6 months after Brexit is irrelevant. It's going to take time - and a reboot of UK PLC - before the wisdom (or otherwise) of Brexit becomes clear.

Wordsmith
 

Brotherton Lad

LE
Kit Reviewer
@Gravelbelly is like so many in the Remain camp. He assumes that if problems are there, they will perpetuate because no one will fix them. I fully expect problems when the new systems get cranked up, but people will immediately start to address them.

My personal guess - based on putting my finger in the air - is that the bulk of the problems will be ironed out by June/July 2021.

In any case, the true test of Brexit is does it deliver better economic performance over a couple of decades? What happens in the initial 6 months after Brexit is irrelevant. It's going to take time - and a reboot of UK PLC - before the wisdom (or otherwise) of Brexit becomes clear.

Wordsmith

It's a little too late to be confessing your fantasy may have been based on wishful thinking.
 
So why do you need a anonymous person to reassure you? Do You ask this of everything you find emotional?

Who's emotional? I merely make the point that I don't find this Government's promises particularly reassuring. I've done stuff with avionics, software, telecomms, and trying to shoot straight. Beyond that, I'm all too aware of my limitations. If I wanted to learn more about JTAC stuff from an expert (possibly other stuff, I don't know), I'd ask you. The reason I suggested I would take @History_Man statements as reassuring is because I know he's done Customs stuff as part of his job - that's all.

I'm not accusing others of being hysterical, too stupid to drive, sheeple, or fatally confused... because most people here are pretty knowledgeable about stuff, have a lot of experience to offer, and are worth listening to. I might have a different perspective, I might be wrong about a lot of stuff, but isn't that why we come here? Life is boring in an echo chamber.

OK, I'm not perfect. I do sometimes insult PhotEx, but give us a break - only when he's lying his head off...
 
@Gravelbelly is like so many in the Remain camp. He assumes that if problems are there, they will perpetuate because no one will fix them. I fully expect problems when the new systems get cranked up, but people will immediately start to address them.

Not really. I accept that the bulk of the problems should be ironed out very quickly, because (as you say) people will attempt to address them, and that the "ironing out" will get rid of almost all of the issues. I don't doubt that there will be ignorant screeching from the Guardian because their virgin olive oil was late to the shelves for a couple of weeks, but so what - that's nothing in the great scheme of things.

My worry (and again, happy to be proved wrong) is that in a world where the difference between "competitive" and "uncompetitive" is measured in a couple of percent or less, that the "new systems" will leave us slightly worse off, by enough to damage the economy - just very slowly. And that there will be the occasional expensive mistake that's driven by ideology (or corruption) rather than pragmatism.

In any case, the true test of Brexit is does it deliver better economic performance over a couple of decades? What happens in the initial 6 months after Brexit is irrelevant. It's going to take time - and a reboot of UK PLC - before the wisdom (or otherwise) of Brexit becomes clear.

Again, I agree with you. The problem is whether we get long enough to make the informed assessment - if the short-term shocks are severe enough (or, can be painted as severe by the Sun or Daily Mail), then there may be knee-jerk reactions from a desperate Government.

I suppose Boris has a big enough majority that he doesn't need to worry about this for some time. I don't think he has to worry about anything for the next four years, other than the 1922 Committee...

...which brings me back to my point a week or two ago. At some point, Brexit supporters have moved from "Yay! £350million to spend as we wish! Instant better outcomes, easiest trade deals in history!" to "well, it will take some serious short-term disruptions, and then a couple of decades to see whether it was a good idea".

Perhaps I'm twitchy, because as a Unionist living in Scotland, I already see the SNP milking this area for grievances - and the very real risk that any second independence referendum will result in a "Yes" vote, if the short-term disruptions are severe enough.
 
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Who's emotional? I merely make the point that I don't find this Government's promises particularly reassuring. I've done stuff with avionics, software, telecomms, and trying to shoot straight. Beyond that, I'm all too aware of my limitations. If I wanted to learn more about JTAC stuff from an expert (possibly other stuff, I don't know), I'd ask you. The reason I suggested I would take @History_Man statements as reassuring is because I know he's done Customs stuff as part of his job - that's all.

I'm not accusing others of being hysterical, too stupid to drive, sheeple, or fatally confused... because most people here are pretty knowledgeable about stuff, have a lot of experience to offer, and are worth listening to. I might have a different perspective, I might be wrong about a lot of stuff, but isn't that why we come here? Life is boring in an echo chamber.

OK, I'm not perfect. I do sometimes insult PhotEx, but give us a break - only when he's lying his head off...
Is that a major earth tremor or a @Gravelbelly lip wobble.

Just admit you are wrong and mostly full of shiite.
 
Who's emotional? I merely make the point that I don't find this Government's promises particularly reassuring. I've done stuff with avionics, software, telecomms, and trying to shoot straight. Beyond that, I'm all too aware of my limitations. If I wanted to learn more about JTAC stuff from an expert (possibly other stuff, I don't know), I'd ask you. The reason I suggested I would take @History_Man statements as reassuring is because I know he's done Customs stuff as part of his job - that's all.

I'm not accusing others of being hysterical, too stupid to drive, sheeple, or fatally confused... because most people here are pretty knowledgeable about stuff, have a lot of experience to offer, and are worth listening to. I might have a different perspective, I might be wrong about a lot of stuff, but isn't that why we come here? Life is boring in an echo chamber.

OK, I'm not perfect. I do sometimes insult PhotEx, but give us a break - only when he's lying his head off...
Erm the length of your post suggests you are emotional, why worry about things that you can’t control? I also mean why take the word of someone on the internet that everything will be fine.

I promise you, this time next year nothing much will have changed, well apart from the fishing rights, Europe need us more, it’s that simple, COVID-19 makes our case stronger, Germany aren’t going to want eyewatering tarifs on there automotive industry.
 
Can I be amongst the first to say, if Scotland thinks they can survive on their own crack on. They political narrative coming from Nicola is abhorrent. “We will quarantine all English who enter“? Crack on.
 
My worry (and again, happy to be proved wrong) is that in a world where the difference between "competitive" and "uncompetitive" is measured in a couple of percent or less, that the "new systems" will leave us slightly worse off, by enough to damage the economy - just very slowly. And that there will be the occasional expensive mistake that's driven by ideology (or corruption) rather than pragmatism.
You and people like you didn't worry for 40 fvcking years about shiitting the UK economy down the pan at the altar of the EU, whilst your politicians were shafting us at every turn and signed up to their every sinecure on the great EU jus train.
Think for a minute why they were so anti Brexit. It might have had something to do with their lucrative income stream.
Please take all criticism personally, as all pro remain people were fully complicit in the last 40 years, plus the last 4 years. You and your ilk literally sold us out.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
My worry (and again, happy to be proved wrong) is that in a world where the difference between "competitive" and "uncompetitive" is measured in a couple of percent or less, that the "new systems" will leave us slightly worse off, by enough to damage the economy - just very slowly. And that there will be the occasional expensive mistake that's driven by ideology (or corruption) rather than pragmatism.

We belong to an uncompetitive trading bloc at the moment

1594584381937.png


Broadly, allowing for the UK's departure, the EU's share of world trade has halved over the last 40 years. We're leaving an over taxed and over regulated EU for a more uncertain future; engaging more with the 85% of the world that's not in the EU. It could always go pear shaped, only a fool would deny that, but our destiny is in our own hands again. And - if we get it right - we won't be joining the EU in economic irrelevance during the next half century.

Wordsmith
 
We belong to an uncompetitive trading bloc at the moment

View attachment 489240

Broadly, allowing for the UK's departure, the EU's share of world trade has halved over the last 40 years. We're leaving an over taxed and over regulated EU for a more uncertain future; engaging more with the 85% of the world that's not in the EU. It could always go pear shaped, only a fool would deny that, but our destiny is in our own hands again. And - if we get it right - we won't be joining the EU in economic irrelevance during the next half century.

Wordsmith
Get away with your facts.......who will serve us at Pret?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
I suppose Boris has a big enough majority that he doesn't need to worry about this for some time. I don't think he has to worry about anything for the next four years, other than the 1922 Committee...

Boris wants to be a 2 - 3 term prime minister, and he only gets to do that if he gets Brexit right. And there are encouraging signs. I'll cite just one. Cummings is advertising for a data scientist who can crunch numbers for the government. Which means that future government decisions will be increasingly evidence based.

You can add into that Cummings has his sights set on the CS recruitment procedures. Henceforth you're likely to need a maths or science degree to get in - arts and humanities degrees are out of the window. More number crunching based decision making.

The government is not going to get every decision right going forward - but their batting average should improve.

Wordsmith
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Get away with your facts.......who will serve us at Pret?

OK - serious answer to that. The joy of controlling your own immigration policy is that you can let into the country only the skill sets you need. If we're short of serving wenches at Pret, there will be an quota for them.

AI and automation is going to kill an awful lot of jobs over the next few decades. The only people we want coming into the UK in the future are the highly skilled. Because only the highly skilled - and the artistically gifted - will have jobs in 30 - 50 years time.

The UK needs to focus on high tech services and manufacturing - that's the way to have a prosperous economy going forward. The low tech jobs are heading for the bin. Simple example - within 10 years you'll see robots restocking shelves in supermarkets. Bye bye hundreds of thousands of low skilled jobs.

Wordsmith
 
The government is not going to get every decision right going forward - but their batting average should improve.
Can't get much lower can it?
 

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