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The Brexit Consequences Thread

No, I'm dripping about the fact that we don't seem to be on top of the organisation of it. We've got a government that utterly f***ed up its response to the top entry on the National Risk Register, and I worry that they're going to f*** Brexit up too.

Now, you can call that "dripping" or "negativity", and suggest that "it's all the fault of the media being negative". Fine. But I'm getting the same feeling about Brexit that I saw when watching an overconfident 2Lt that hadn't thought something through, and assumes that an air of confidence is all that is necessary for success.

You know - big blank spaces in the "Actions On" paragraph, little or no rehearsals...

When have HMG, regardless of hue, ever been anything other than a gangfcuk?

When have you ever felt that "these are the guys" to deliver any manifesto promise?

COVID19 a shitshow?
Better under somebody else surely?

BREXIT clusterfcuk?
Better under somebody else surely?

HS2, 5G, health, education, HK, GW1, Syria, Iraq, Afg...

All better under somebody else?

Surely.
 

Trans-sane

LE
Book Reviewer
Did "the rest of the world" say that? There are different approaches handling the pandemic. Don't fool yourself, it isn't over now and the next wave is just in it's starting blocks. Until you haven't got herd immunity or a working vaccine you have to face the fact that there will be many more COVID-19 infections and more deaths. So don't start to count to early, it isn't over now and you can't be sure how the final count will look like.

Only one thing ist sure and that ist, that the hedgehog can't be buggered at all.

Three things are sure. You missed death and tax.
 
...and you appear to be leaping to premature conclusions.

This is all a long way from over (Brexit or Covid) and leading or lagging before the half-way point in a marathon is not a reliable indicator of eventual outcome.

Calm your jets ace!
To repeat and expand upon your points:

COVID-19 is a long way from over, and all news reports from serious experts that I have seen say that we're not even half way through yet. They keep saying that it's a marathon, not a sprint (the same analogy that you used), and the final result won't be known for quite some time yet.

With regards to Brexit trade negotiations, in every major trade negotiation that Canada has been involved in in the past number of years, negotiations have gone on to the last minute of any deadline, and even beyond the deadline. It's the way these things work.

The only people who actually know how Brexit trade negotiations are going are on the inside, and I doubt that they are posting on ARRSE.

The EU seem to be taking negotiating advice from Donald Trump, because they are using the exact same tactics that he did of leaking doom and gloom about the progress of trade negotiations to the press, along with their supposedly unalterable demands. If they are leaking to the press, it will be because they aren't seeing much hope of getting what they want across the negotiating table. Hint to those who didn't follow that news, Trump's mountain groaned and brought forth a mouse.

Canada's position on Trumpian press leaks from the US was a simple "we don't negotiate through the press".

If Justin Trudeau can stand there and repeatedly say "no deal is better than a bad deal, and we'll exit the trade negotiations and trade on WTO terms if necessary", then I'm sure that Johnson can do the same.

As I'm not on the inside, I won't try to predict how the Brexit trade negotiations will go. However, I won't be surprised to see them drag out until the last minute. I also won't be surprised if various EU states try to hold up ratification as a tactic to extract concessions or money from the EU on issues that may not even be related to the trade treaty. The Germans may also come in with demands for last minute changes on the grounds that something is against their constitution.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
As I'm not on the inside, I won't try to predict how the Brexit trade negotiations will go. However, I won't be surprised to see them drag out until the last minute. I also won't be surprised if various EU states try to hold up ratification as a tactic to extract concessions or money from the EU on issues that may not even be related to the trade treaty. The Germans may also come in with demands for last minute changes on the grounds that something is against their constitution.

  1. If we exit on WTO terms, there won't be a problem. Both we and the EU are members of the WTO and we revert to rules that both sides are already parties to.
  2. We run a trade deficit of £72 billion with the EU. Lack of a trade agreement probably hurts the EU more than it hurts us.
Wordsmith
 
Any minister who moans about potential smuggling from the EU knows sod all about the amount of smuggling that has existed for forty years. The concepts off the single market have not eliminated it, quite the opposite. The EU has/d a penchant for not looking. If you don’t look you don’t find. This equates to no problem. If there’s no problem there is no funding
Hear, hear.
One thing Brussels is very good at is placing the onus of countering illicit trade - smuggled or counterfeit - on the manufacturers. Very heavy fines have been imposed on numerous companies by OLAF, for such breaches.
Put it this way, I made a very healthy living acting for companies trying to minimise their exposure to illicit trade.
It was never going to be stopped!
Add to that, the inability of Brussels to do ‘joined up’.
Say, X applied to company A to act as a licensee/ wholesaler of A’s products.
As required by OLAF, A then conducts due diligence on X, discovers X has a dodgy history, and turns them down.
X then comes back, in one case I’m thinking of within 24h, and says ‘if you continue to refuse me permission, I’ll have my lawyers on this faster than you can blink, citing EU anti-trust laws.’
A’s in-house and external lawyers look at the problem and say ‘Feck me, X is right. We don’t have a leg to stand on.’
X is licensed as a wholesaler, dodginess ensues, and A is severely fined by OLAF!
 

Oyibo

LE
Hear, hear.
One thing Brussels is very good at is placing the onus of countering illicit trade - smuggled or counterfeit - on the manufacturers. Very heavy fines have been imposed on numerous companies by OLAF, for such breaches.
Put it this way, I made a very healthy living acting for companies trying to minimise their exposure to illicit trade.
It was never going to be stopped!
Add to that, the inability of Brussels to do ‘joined up’.
Say, X applied to company A to act as a licensee/ wholesaler of A’s products.
As required by OLAF, A then conducts due diligence on X, discovers X has a dodgy history, and turns them down.
X then comes back, in one case I’m thinking of within 24h, and says ‘if you continue to refuse me permission, I’ll have my lawyers on this faster than you can blink, citing EU anti-trust laws.’
A’s in-house and external lawyers look at the problem and say ‘Feck me, X is right. We don’t have a leg to stand on.’
X is licensed as a wholesaler, dodginess ensues, and A is severely fined by OLAF!

This is definitely worth a thread of its own - I am currently looking into 'illicit whites' (not a BLM issue) for a potential contract, and the subject is fascinating.
 

Oyibo

LE
‘Illicit whites’ is a term used in the tobacco industry.
I think we need to chat.

I'd appreciate it if we could - I know the region in which it is a concern (and how it funds terrorism), but not some of the finer points of how it works. Private chat?
 
I'd appreciate it if we could - I know the region in which it is a concern (and how it funds terrorism), but not some of the finer points of how it works. Private chat?
Absolutely. Face to face over a beer would probably be better.

ETA FYI: I have 23 years experience in AIT Int analysis, investigations and inspections, of which 12 years in tobacco.
 
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Oyibo

LE
Absolutely. Face to face over a beer would probably be better.

ETA FYI: I have 23 years experience in AIT Int analysis, investigations and inspections, of which 12 years in tobacco.

I'd welcome the chance to talk and have a beer with you.

Can you make it to Geneva in the very near future? Or perhaps Lausanne might be easier?

My first video-conference with the client's reps is Monday, but if that goes well then there might be further meetings.
 
I'd welcome the chance to talk and have a beer with you.

Can you make it to Geneva in the very near future? Or perhaps Lausanne might be easier?

My first video-conference with the client's reps is Monday, but if that goes well then there might be further meetings.
Let me have a word with 0A. I’m tied up tomorrow but, currently, Saturday looks good. Perhaps the sailing club in Morges?
 
I'd welcome the chance to talk and have a beer with you.

Can you make it to Geneva in the very near future? Or perhaps Lausanne might be easier?

My first video-conference with the client's reps is Monday, but if that goes well then there might be further meetings.
PM sent.
 

Oyibo

LE
Let me have a word with 0A. I’m tied up tomorrow but, currently, Saturday looks good. Perhaps the sailing club in Morges?

Sounds good. Let's work out coordinating instructions by PM.
 
As this is, after all, the Brexit Consequences thread, what is it that you think/know/guess/hope that Boris and his team have done wrong? What is it that is making you squeeze your panties.

The Government's own impact assessments, for the most part. That, and watching them make a complete arrse of the Covid-19 response. If they're willing to let half a million of us die in the name of "herd immunity", what makes you think that they give a flying f**k about our economic welfare? They're all right, Jack.

But ignore me, I'm just being an utter wetpants. Absolutely nothing to worry about here that some good old pluck, positive attitude, and Dunkirk Spirit won't solve!

 
The Government's own impact assessments, for the most part. That, and watching them make a complete arrse of the Covid-19 response. If they're willing to let half a million of us die in the name of "herd immunity", what makes you think that they give a flying f**k about our economic welfare? They're all right, Jack.

But ignore me, I'm just being an utter wetpants. Absolutely nothing to worry about here that some good old pluck, positive attitude, and Dunkirk Spirit won't solve!


10 - 15000 people croak from flu every year, and zero fcuks are given.

Suddenly, HMG are heartless bastrds allowing people to die.

That Boris...grrrr
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
The Government's own impact assessments, for the most part. That, and watching them make a complete arrse of the Covid-19 response. If they're willing to let half a million of us die in the name of "herd immunity", what makes you think that they give a flying f**k about our economic welfare? They're all right, Jack.

But ignore me, I'm just being an utter wetpants. Absolutely nothing to worry about here that some good old pluck, positive attitude, and Dunkirk Spirit won't solve!

First sensible thing you have said. :)
 

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