The Brexit Consequences Thread

No, you were rather hoping that Mummy May would make the Bad "Get Brexit Done" Men go away and make the EU love you again.

How's that all working out for you?
What, a competently-organised trade agreement? It's going exactly as I predicted - as soon as the Conservatives didn't need the DUP, they sold them down the river, and put the border down the Irish Sea. The rest (as I feared) looks like it's going to be a train wreck. Hey - you voted for it, you're going to get what you want.

My naive attitude is that I'm hoping (praying, really) that any disruption is short-term, and that we sort sh!t out quickly to get something workable. I'm hoping (praying, really) that all of the predicted manufacturing sector job losses are just "Project Fear", that all of the Government's own impact assessments are just fiction, and that we don't see the economy take a really severe kicking. But then, I'm hoping we end up with something good for the whole of the UK, not a narrow "I'm all right, Jack" for the hedge-funders with dreams of Singapore-on-Thames - or a "yeah, we showed 'em" from the Little Englanders.

Remember, the "Get Brexit Done" brigade were exactly the ones insisting that a trade deal, where we ended up with better terms than if we were in the EU, was not only possible, but the easiest deal in the world.

How's that all working out for you?
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Remember, the "Get Brexit Done" brigade were exactly the ones insisting that a trade deal, where we ended up with better terms than if we were in the EU, was not only possible, but the easiest deal in the world.
Meanwhile reality dawns on the EU.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...eu-get-prepared-no-trade-deal-brexit-warning/
Angela Merkel said the EU should be prepared for a no trade deal Brexit on Wednesday, the day after Boris Johnson warned the German chancellor that Britain was "ready" to walk away without an agreement.
It's been my opinion all along that BoJo is happy to leave the EU on WTO Australian terms, but can say that publicly. Sp he's been happy to run the clock down. He's essentially (from his perspective) in a win/win situation. Either we leave on WTO terms, in which case he's got his desired outcome, or the EU cave in and make major concessions, in which case he's done better than he hoped.

It's noticeable that BoJo hasn't given in inch in the negotiations, much to Barnier's displeasure. You only do that if you think you're in a stronger position than your opponent. And here's why BoJo thinks that.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...n-look-forward-australian-style-relationship/
The UK has itself been trading under WTO terms with most countries in the world far more successfully than with its EU neighbours. Over the past two decades 1999-2018, the real growth of frictionless tariff-free UK exports to the 14 original members of the Single Market has barely risen above zero, at a real rate of 0.56% per annum.

By contrast, real growth to 14 WTO partners of a roughly similar size was six times faster, at 3.58% per annum. It is, therefore, trade under WTO terms that has created jobs in the UK over these two decades. Trade with the EU could hardly have created any, in the UK at least.
Basically, the bulk of the grown in the UK economy has come from mutual trade with countries on WTO terms,. and not from trade with the EU.

As i've pointed out before, the EU accounts for just 15% of world trade, the rest of the world 85%. BoJo wants to focus the UK economy on where growth is occurring, not on what is increasingly becoming an economic backwater - the EU.

Wordsmith
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
What, a competently-organised trade agreement? It's going exactly as I predicted - as soon as the Conservatives didn't need the DUP, they sold them down the river, and put the border down the Irish Sea. The rest (as I feared) looks like it's going to be a train wreck. Hey - you voted for it, you're going to get what you want.

My naive attitude is that I'm hoping (praying, really) that any disruption is short-term, and that we sort sh!t out quickly to get something workable. I'm hoping (praying, really) that all of the predicted manufacturing sector job losses are just "Project Fear", that all of the Government's own impact assessments are just fiction, and that we don't see the economy take a really severe kicking. But then, I'm hoping we end up with something good for the whole of the UK, not a narrow "I'm all right, Jack" for the hedge-funders with dreams of Singapore-on-Thames - or a "yeah, we showed 'em" from the Little Englanders.

Remember, the "Get Brexit Done" brigade were exactly the ones insisting that a trade deal, where we ended up with better terms than if we were in the EU, was not only possible, but the easiest deal in the world.

How's that all working out for you?
Dry your eyes Princess. Christ four years and you are still schimfing about losing the referendum, what a wimp!
 
Euro news tonight Mutti Merkel made a speech in the EUP on taking up the EUropean presidency calling for solidarity and making the point that non nationalistic EU countries have handled COVID better. She also seemed to imply that Germany would be paying more into the fund but didn’t specifically say that and I’m Betting there will be strings attached.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Dry your eyes Princess. Christ four years and you are still schimfing about losing the referendum, what a wimp!
He'll have plenty to weep about soon.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...great-stimulus-plan-little-political-theatre/
The EU’s Recovery Fund has taken on a sacral character out of all proportion to its macroeconomic significance. The weekend gathering of EU elites at France’s Cercle des Economistes was one long celebration of this pandemic package.

I did not hear a single participant seriously question whether this clutter of measures – ostensibly worth €750bn (with poetic licence), but stretched thinly until 2025 – will make any material difference given the scale of the Covid shock, or whether its structure will prevent the eurozone’s North-South gap widening fatally as an asymmetric recovery takes hold.
The EU is fracturing, with Northern Europe recovering best from Covid 19 and Club Med showing every sign of going down the sh*tter.

With another major political headache coming in August - when the German constitution court could tell the EU to Foxtrot Oscar.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...-600bn-fresh-stimulus-risking-constitutional/
The court ruled [in May] that the ECB has been carrying out a disguised fiscal rescue and its actions are ultra vires. Furthermore it said the European Court has been complicit and is itself in breach of EU Treaty law, an astonishing rebuke. While the case involved a different bond scheme, the legal arguments even more strongly to the new PEPP expansion.

Karlsruhe said the Bundesbank will have to withdraw from the programme - and, arguably, sell its existing bond holdings - unless the ECB can justify its actions under the “proportionality principle”. The deadline is in early August.
The court has ruled that the EU is in breach of its own law and has given it up till August to justify that breach. If the EU can't, the Bundesbank might pull the rug from under the EU's QE scheme. Germany don't like the German cheque book being used without their permission.

Wordsmith
 
Meanwhile reality dawns on the EU.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...eu-get-prepared-no-trade-deal-brexit-warning/


It's been my opinion all along that BoJo is happy to leave the EU on WTO Australian terms, but can say that publicly. Sp he's been happy to run the clock down. He's essentially (from his perspective) in a win/win situation. Either we leave on WTO terms, in which case he's got his desired outcome, or the EU cave in and make major concessions, in which case he's done better than he hoped.

It's noticeable that BoJo hasn't given in inch in the negotiations, much to Barnier's displeasure. You only do that if you think you're in a stronger position than your opponent. And here's why BoJo thinks that.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...n-look-forward-australian-style-relationship/


Basically, the bulk of the grown in the UK economy has come from mutual trade with countries on WTO terms,. and not from trade with the EU.

As i've pointed out before, the EU accounts for just 15% of world trade, the rest of the world 85%. BoJo wants to focus the UK economy on where growth is occurring, not on what is increasingly becoming an economic backwater - the EU.

Wordsmith
"Sobs"
 
Dry your eyes Princess. Christ four years and you are still schimfing about losing the referendum, what a wimp!
I don't care about the referendum, I've long accepted the result. I've even given up hope of seeing the Security Committee report on Russian interference (not that it was going to announce anything significant, but if so why hide it?)

I do care about the future of the UK - I really don't want us to end up in a shagged economy.

I want the Government to get the best deal possible, for the whole of the UK - and not to have the outcome captured by narrow political interests (e.g. newspaper-owning billionaires who want to avoid paying their fair share of tax), or used as a wedge to divide the UK and achieve the SNP's goals.
 
I do care about the future of the UK - I really don't want us to end up in a shagged economy.
Do you realise that the majority of UK external trade is conducted under WTO rules?

As such, it is far more a "leap towards the familiar" than "falling off a cliff edge".

What is it that you are so afraid of?
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
I don't care about the referendum, I've long accepted the result. I've even given up hope of seeing the Security Committee report on Russian interference (not that it was going to announce anything significant, but if so why hide it?)

I do care about the future of the UK - I really don't want us to end up in a shagged economy.

I want the Government to get the best deal possible, for the whole of the UK - and not to have the outcome captured by narrow political interests (e.g. newspaper-owning billionaires who want to avoid paying their fair share of tax), or used as a wedge to divide the UK and achieve the SNP's goals.
And yet you seem to think the best way for your hopes to come to fruition is to constantly drip about the fact we are leaving the EU!

A great example on how to become one of life's achievers - not!
 
/
What, a competently-organised trade agreement? It's going exactly as I predicted - as soon as the Conservatives didn't need the DUP, they sold them down the river, and put the border down the Irish Sea. The rest (as I feared) looks like it's going to be a train wreck. Hey - you voted for it, you're going to get what you want.

My naive attitude is that I'm hoping (praying, really) that any disruption is short-term, and that we sort sh!t out quickly to get something workable. I'm hoping (praying, really) that all of the predicted manufacturing sector job losses are just "Project Fear", that all of the Government's own impact assessments are just fiction, and that we don't see the economy take a really severe kicking. But then, I'm hoping we end up with something good for the whole of the UK, not a narrow "I'm all right, Jack" for the hedge-funders with dreams of Singapore-on-Thames - or a "yeah, we showed 'em" from the Little Englanders.

Remember, the "Get Brexit Done" brigade were exactly the ones insisting that a trade deal, where we ended up with better terms than if we were in the EU, was not only possible, but the easiest deal in the world.

How's that all working out for you?
Spoken like someone whose only interest in the success of leaving the EU centres around aching for it to fail.
 
I think it's all a bit shakey an uncertain right now - but that's not the question. The question is whether we're even worse off than them, or slightly better off than if we'd stayed in. Given all of the shoutiness around the subject of EU agreements, I'll stick to "I suppose we'll have a better idea by six months after the end of the transition period".

I'm hoping that we'll be better off - but I worry that we won't be. That seems reasonable, because one thing that our response to Covid-19 has demonstrated is that we aren't somehow innately more competent at getting stuff done, than the rest of Europe - frankly, we appear to be on a par with Italy and Spain.
Difference was the U.K. chose to be on a par with Italy and Spain
 
Last edited:

New Posts

Latest Threads

Top