The Brexit Consequences Thread

If you read the page, you'd have realised that the most recent published economic data is from Q1 2018, now a full year out of date. Even the most recent commentry from the IMF is seven months old, warning of fading FDI. With the passage of time, we actually see that FDI has risen to a record high since the Brexit vote. A good deal of this is due to the weak currency but, regardless of the reason, capital is flowing into the UK at an unprecedented rate.

2/10.

Article talks to "services" PMI of 50.1, indicating slight growth. Service sector forward orders are notoriously hard to predict, and PMI is a vox pop survey (with attendant biases both ways), not empirical data. Moreover, given the general slow-down among the G7, it's understandable that demand for services might fall as a result. That growth remains in the sector is, given the slowing global economic environment, really quite positive.

This BBC goes on to add:

"Until very recently, what's been most remarkable is not how much of an economic impact all the Brexit-related uncertainty has had, but how little. Growth has continued. The number employed keeps hitting new records. The services sector which makes up four-fifths of our economy has continued to expand."

2/10

And key to a mature economies growth: loss of FDI http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit03.pdf
This LSE paper, published in 2017, is entirely predicated on the assumption that FDI would fall, and talks to the consequences of the same. However, this unjustified assumption has proven to be entirely baseless. Rather than falling, FDI has risen to record levels, and continues to climb.

1/10

You article, from a free "newspaper", CityAM, begins....."Britain is paralysed by Brexit uncertainty.....". It goes on to make sensationalist claims, without analysis or reference.

If record FDI, record employment, near record low interest rates and wages rising faster the inflation are "paralasis"........then you and I have different welfare objectives (in the economic sense).

1/10

GDP growth from highest in G7 to lowest:
View attachment 381186
If you look at the chart, you'd notice that the data ends in Q2 2018. Since that time, the UK has outperformed the G7 on a relative basis. If you need to see the most recent GDP growth figures, see GDP Growth Rate - Countries - List

3/10

Legislatively:
A vast amount of work has been shelved till post brexit, as brexit work has been prioritised. I can't share anything not already in the public domain, and it's not something under the press glare.
I do so admire an insightful anecdote.

0/10

I can't bring myself to cross-reference this paper in depth, but the punchline is that the "observed" significant increase is in crimes reported as being both "traditional" and "hate" (i.e. stealing from somebody "traditional" while racially villyfying them "hate"). On that basis, the author finds a spike around the time that "hate crime" reporting became a mandatory statistic. No great surprises there, and despite the paper's JEL classifications, it's neither been peer reviewed nor published.

3/10

Austerity was due to finish in 2017. Do you feel austerity has finished? The country is still split.
Are you aware that at the height of "austerity" measures, Government expenditure was reduced only to the level of late 2014?

Seriously, think about that for a bit........a 2014 budget basis. FFS.

2/10

Politically:
I have to dance round what I actually want to put because I want to continue to work. Our politics as moved to extremes, brexit has exposed deep fractures in both major parties.
Have the courage of your convictions, it's an anonymous site.

I think you will find that "our politics" hasn't moved to extremes, despite the media hyperbole. I suspect you haven't lived in a country with extreme politics, it's quite the eye-opener. The UK electorate appears quite settled in its view on Brexit, where very few appear to have changed their minds.

3/10

The "joke", as you put it, is that you would quote an author with such an openly acknowledged political bias. His bio page (https://www.quora.com/profile/John-Welch-18) provides all the insight required. He's extremely unhappy about Brexit, as he has every right to be. He does not, however, address the fundamental question he poses in the title.

As for a self-hating Guardian article, it doesn't merit a discussion.

2/10


The challenge you have is that of being able to overcome your clear anti-Brexit bias. You should search for truth rather than quoting cheap articles or old data simply because they support your ideological position. That's unforgivably lazy and dishonest.
 
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FDI has risen to record levels, and continues to climb.
Fair point. Further reading that may interest, santander article breaking down some of the larger acquisition deals that contributed to the numbers in 2017.
https://en.portal.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/united-kingdom/foreign-investment
And another looking at property investment contribution for the same period from forbes:
How Has Brexit Affected Foreign Investment In The U.K. Property Market?

Slightly more nuanced is this study of regional patterns to manufacturing and services FDI:
FDI in UK and Brexit: are there regional patterns? « UK Trade Policy Observatory

And this from the same source, that looks at number of new projects in manufacturing and service FDI, which has dropped off significantly since the vote. And speculates in the conclusion that the drop may (hopefully) be "caused by multinational firms holding off investing until they get clarity on what will happen after Brexit"
Not Backing Britain: FDI Inflows Since the Brexit Referendum « UK Trade Policy Observatory
I believe this implies that 2017's peak was due to project commitments signed prior to the vote.

Please let me know if you find any data that is more current.


The challenge you have is that of being able to overcome your clear anti-Brexit bias. You should search for truth rather than quoting cheap articles or old data simply because they support your ideological position. That's unforgivably lazy and dishonest.
This is why an 'unforgivable lazy and dishonest' remainer is on the forum. Asking questions and seeking to debate. I've nearly finished work for the day and I'll look into your other points when I'd had some sleep.
 
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Please don't assume I'm trolling. I'm not attacking the messenger, nor am I doubting your right to comment. I'm simply asking you to elaborate.
With 35 years of customs service you may also have a useful opinion on the challenges we face post brexit.
I've done my best. It seems some people want to ignore it. If I had done 35 Years in the military would they treat me the same way?
 
The laughable current state of British 'government'. While unlikely, the fact that such action can be even considered shows what a farce Westminster now is.

'... it is not absurd to imagine the Commons, this week, voting both for the Customs Union and against it; against No Deal, but with conditions that might still allow it; for or extensions of different lengths. These are “known unknowns”. All are admittedly unlikely. However, there will also be unknown unknowns which by definition are unseen. This not so much a can of worms as a can of serpents. Welcome to the Government’s latest hell.'

Do you think it looks bad for May next week? If so, it's even worse than you think. Here's why. | Conservative Home
 
The laughable current state of British 'government'. While unlikely, the fact that such action can be even considered shows what a farce Westminster now is.

'... it is not absurd to imagine the Commons, this week, voting both for the Customs Union and against it; against No Deal, but with conditions that might still allow it; for or extensions of different lengths. These are “known unknowns”. All are admittedly unlikely. However, there will also be unknown unknowns which by definition are unseen. This not so much a can of worms as a can of serpents. Welcome to the Government’s latest hell.'

Do you think it looks bad for May next week? If so, it's even worse than you think. Here's why. | Conservative Home
Courtesy of Bercow
 
The laughable current state of British 'government'. While unlikely, the fact that such action can be even considered shows what a farce Westminster now is.

'... it is not absurd to imagine the Commons, this week, voting both for the Customs Union and against it; against No Deal, but with conditions that might still allow it; for or extensions of different lengths. These are “known unknowns”. All are admittedly unlikely. However, there will also be unknown unknowns which by definition are unseen. This not so much a can of worms as a can of serpents. Welcome to the Government’s latest hell.'

Do you think it looks bad for May next week? If so, it's even worse than you think. Here's why. | Conservative Home
More to the point, Do the commons actually realise how bad it looks for the traditions of this country’s democracy?
 
The answer to all three questions is.........Nobody knows, and I mean nobody!

We have had extrapolations from all sides, crystal ball gazing, experts in their respective fields and, none of them can claim to know what is going to happen.

Most of the uncertainty was caused by some ********, calling a referendum with no idea what to do if, the vote went against the Government recommendation, followed by an outraged gnashing of teeth because the 'people' had ignored all the sage advice in the £9million pamphlet !

It's really a matter of "Wait.....Out" !
I see I got a big red X from #Bagknob ! Yet, no explanation, have I stated an 'untruth', or is he just so far in denial that he can't bring himself to face facts ? :roll:
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
More to the point, Do the commons actually realise how bad it looks for the traditions of this country’s democracy?
One could argue that its good for democracy to hold up to the light our law makers. Also that parliament regardless of how foolish they may appear are held to account and that they hold the govt to account as that is what we pay them to do!
Or you could just say that they are all useless cnuts!
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
One could argue that its good for democracy to hold up to the light our law makers. Also that parliament regardless of how foolish they may appear are held to account and that they hold the govt to account as that is what we pay them to do!
Or you could just say that they are all useless cnuts!
Just slightly more useful than the unelected House of Lords who are a complete waste of rations.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
I suspect that achieve the latter you will have to undertake the former i.e. come up with a brand new second chamber.
Aye, that's my thoughts also and their conduct during the earlier days of brexit should provide the ammo needed for that reform.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
Aye, that's my thoughts also and their conduct during the earlier days of brexit should provide the ammo needed for that reform.
But what are former MPs going to do when we make them work for a living?
MPs are unlikely to do any serious serious work on changing the upper house if it puts their sinecure at risk!
 
They'll have to keep the HoL going when they've lost their little retirement sinecures in Europe.
 
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