Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Dontdreamit, Jan 7, 2009.
The heart of the site is the forum area, including:
Russian Draft Security Strategy 2020
Combined with -
Might change that Arabic application to Russki..
Is one thread in one area not good enough.
Current economical and financial crisis affected Russia very seriously Rouble weakened toward Dollar and Euro (about 20%). Oil prices are low.
Resurgent Russia? Rather still not very rich country with a lot of problems.
Arctic warfare training all round then?
Can't help but wonder why we can't get along with Ivan. In fact, I can't really see why russia isn't in the EU. Being friends with Brasil, India and China isn't a bad idea either. The US is going to get more and more isolated in this century. I don't see why we have to go along too.
Never mind that Sergey - go and have aword with Putin and tell him to switch the gas back on as I am currently imagining I am back on Ops as I am washing in a cold basin of water
However back on thread. The Russians have been changing their Force structures for several years now e.g. the use of Kontratkniki gradually replacing conscripts etc and this is simply the latest move and update.
Oh Sergey BTW - ÐÐµÑÐµÐ»Ð¾Ðµ ÑÐ¾Ð¶Ð´ÐµÑÑÐ²Ð¾ Ðº Ð²Ð°Ð¼ Ð¸ Ð²Ð°ÑÐµÐ¹ ÑÐµÐ¼ÑÐµ.
GENFORCE Handbooks anyone?
GENFOR is no more than a very basic introduction to the concepts, developed to be easy to learn to allow training to focus on the teaching points rather than the content. We'd need a lot more than that if we're serious.
Mmmmmm operational art .....
So do you think the Tsar Putin will play games with Norway and Canada over the Arctic and its resources? Will be interesting to see how Russia stakes its claim.
I'll be even more interested to see how Putin and Medvedev plan to pay for any of these alleged planned shenanigans. Their pain point is around $72 a barrel for LSC - below that, no dinero.
Worth reflecting that the current deployments - Petr Velikij in the Caribbean and the carrier, whatever it's called this year, the Kuznetsov, is it, to Turkey, coupled with making good after the Georgian intervention, have pretty well stuffed the Russian armed forces for the next few months.
I know there's a natural tendency to try and "paint the devil on the wall" as they probably say in Denmark, but, actually, the Cold War ain't coming back. Putin is quite explicit that Russia is part of the world economic system and sees itself as a European power. He and Medvedev will do things which they see as advantageous for the Russian national interest; hell, I'd be delighted if the British government did likewise.
I'd echo the above, and go on to say that I would assess Russia's focus being very firmly on the near abroad. Anything they do outside that appears to be calculated to give them freedom to operate nearer home. If they can get away with it they'd love to extend the window of opportunity that opened when the US committed to Iraq. But economic woes and natural caution may well win out here. However, I think they will die in a ditch over Ukraine.
Indeed, I think Tsar Putin is a good model for this. We're not facing the Soviet Union any more, we're facing something far closer to pre-1917 Russia.
Russia has been very lucky with its oil. As soon as the US cracks biofuels and breaks free of fossil fuels then Russia's economic leverage will weaken, as will the attractiveness of the Middle East. In the mean time there is economic warfare with the global economy and the price of a barrel of oil. Putin needs to be careful.
The UN says Russia's population will decline from 147 million now to around 105 million in 2050. The whole place is a time-bomb. And you can't support aggressive policies with that kind of population with half a billion Europeans and 1.2 billion Chinese on your border, together with 300 million Americans over the horizon.
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