The Baltics: should Britain be rushing to their defence?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by whitecity, Mar 26, 2014.

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  1. It would not be to NATO's advantage either for Finland to be involved in a general war with Russia. Their geographic position makes it impractical for NATO to provide them with any meaningful assistance in the middle of a major war.

    From a NATO perspective, the best situation would be for Finland to be well defended enough on their own that it wasn't worth Russia's while to attack them while involved in a major war elsewhere. To this end, it would be advantageous to have some sort of cooperation which included selling them arms and technology while stopping short of formal membership of NATO.

    From a Russian perspective, a formally neutral but well defended Finland would be best left alone while the main effort went in to the south of the Baltic Sea. Getting bogged down in Finland would divert resources which could be decisive if used elsewhere.

    In the event of a Russian aggression which came out of the blue and directly solely against Finland, then I think that NATO would involve itself anyway. However, that wouldn't necessarily involve fighting from Finish soil. Rather, it may be advantageous to attack from a starting point in Poland.
     
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  2. ugly

    ugly LE Moderator

    Would that be legal? Wait I know its never stopped politicians before but just once?
     
  3. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    If after this imaging Russian agression against Finland, Finish government will be able to make treaty, or officially ask another (for examle, Polish) government about military help - why not?
    Even whole NATO can declare war to the whole ODKB to be able attack not only Kaliningrad region, but also Belorussia and main part of Russian territory.
     
  4. I'm not sure that I understand you. If we went to war with Russia, what would be illegal for NATO to start heading east from concentration points in Poland?

    I'm not claiming by the way that NATO possesses the ability today to successfully invade Russia in a conventional war. I am just outlining a hypothetical future situation in which we did have the resources to do so and wanted to employ them in the most advantageous manner.

    The scenario I had in mind was that for example Russia invades Finland. NATO countries issue an ultimatum, demanding that Russia withdraw from Finland. The ultimatum expires, and we declare ourselves to be in a state of war with Russia (the legal technicalities may differ, but that's the essentials).

    We move forces into Poland (if they are not there already) and start with trying to gobble up Kaliningrad. The Russians of course will not have been standing still, so what happens next will depend on where they were at that time (assuming they're not already crossing the Polish border). Belarussian neutrality would probably be ignored by both sides on one pretext or another.

    If we sent our forces off to Finland to fight the Russian there, the Russians would probably go on the defensive there while their man force headed west to Berlin. Geography, logistics, and strategy all seem to point to Poland as being the key.
     
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  5. ugly

    ugly LE Moderator

    Would Russian aggression against Finland be a legal trigger for Nato to invade from Poland?
     
  6. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    Sure. But, for example, Poland can be against war with Russia.
    Very well. Another confirmation that Canadians are clever guys.

    Ok. Lets do it.

    It will be legal only if there are request for military help from legal Finish government. In the case of legal Finish government's request to Russia it will be illegal.

    There are only two legal ways to declare war - selfdefence (including group selfdefence) and decision of UN SC (blocking by Russia).
    Belarussia is a part of ODKB and Union State. Declaring war to Russia means declaring war also to Belarussia, Armenia, Kazahstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan.

    Yes, of course.
     
  7. Until Brexit, of course. Even after Brexit as a permanent member of the UNSC, a NATO lead nation I doubt we would do nothing. Finland whilst not a NATO member is heavily involved with NATO along with Sweden as they too are concerned about Russian aggression:
    Glossary of summaries - EUR-Lex
    Relations with Finland
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  8. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    Only in case of Finish request for military help, and if Poland (and other NATO countries) will accept this request.
     
  9. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    Only if you have legal request from legal Finland government. If Finland will ask Russian state to protect them against NATO any your ultimatums will be illegal.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  10. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

  11. YarS

    YarS On ROPs

    But what if Finland government will violate EU soverignity in the defence questions and will separately ask for Russian military help against NATO?
     
  12. Is Russia a member of the EU? Or is there a mutual defence treaty between Russia and Finland?
     
  13. If Finland is invaded and invokes 42(7) its down to individual EU nations to act and as mentioned previously there is the JEF which is exercised.