The Baltics: should Britain be rushing to their defence?

With El Presidente Trump now pulling troops out of Germany, the issue with the Baltic's is now moot.
Putin now knows with 100% clarity, the US won’t step in to defend them.
 
With El Presidente Trump now pulling troops out of Germany, the issue with the Baltic's is now moot.
Putin now knows with 100% clarity, the US won’t step in to defend them.
It rather depends where he puts those troops though; are they definitely going Stateside? What about Poland as rotational forces? Some US units in Europe are on rotation from the States and are considered as forward deployed.
 
Funnily enough, I'm looking at doing a TEFL course and so is the LHG.

A semi-retirement option for us is a house in Poland; so teaching colloquial English (as it is spoken) to Poles might be a nice little sideline
I know it's 5 years later, but how did this work out for you? Mrs Ancient is Italian and it looks as though we will have to move there in the next year and I'm going to need a way to keep myself out of the bars and brothels of Tuscany.

Any thoughts/ advice?
 
I know it's 5 years later, but how did this work out for you? Mrs Ancient is Italian and it looks as though we will have to move there in the next year and I'm going to need a way to keep myself out of the bars and brothels of Tuscany.

Any thoughts/ advice?
We didn't go for it and ended up buying a house in the Scottish Borders instead in late 2018 (LHG is Scottish and BiL's family live in Peebles). Though she's voiced some doubts recently as to our choice of country. Still have a flat in London which we are renting out.
 
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It rather depends where he puts those troops though; are they definitely going Stateside? What about Poland as rotational forces? Some US units in Europe are on rotation from the States and are considered as forward deployed.
if he moves them to Poland, Putin wins with the Russian public.
’See! The Americans move forwards to threaten the Rodina!’

and I’d expect him to spin up mischief making in the Baltics to counter.
 
Rather echoes what Mrs H_M has been saying recently; she wants to go back for a month and see her folks and her sister but she is genuinely nervous about the potential fallout from the presidential elections.
The major issue is likely to be what Moscow does to ensure that Belarus does not get any westward leaning ideas. With the world pre-occupied by the response to Covid-19 and the economic fallout thereof and with US Foreign Policy a roulette wheel under Trump; Putin may decide that he can get away with an intervention.
 
The major issue is likely to be what Moscow does to ensure that Belarus does not get any westward leaning ideas. With the world pre-occupied by the response to Covid-19 and the economic fallout thereof and with US Foreign Policy a roulette wheel under Trump; Putin may decide that he can get away with an intervention.
There will be a lot of influential people in Belarus who don't want too much western orientation either, as a major shake up in the politics of the country would mean they would lose that influence.

I imagine that Lukashenko can be trusted to rig the elections. The question will be whether he can weather any resulting fall-out.
 
Published by: BBC NEWS , on 19 June 2020.

Belarus: Rival of President Lukashenko arrested ahead of election

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Image caption: Babaryko was once head of a Belarus subsidiary of Russian energy giant Gazprom.
Belarusian authorities have detained President Alexander Lukashenko's main rival in August's election.

Viktor Babaryko, a 56-year-old former banker, was detained on suspicion of financial crimes amid increased harassment of opposition figures.

Hundreds took to the streets in the capital Minsk to protest against recent arrests of government critics.

President Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994, is seeking a sixth term in office.

Mr Babaryko's 30-year-old son Eduard, who is running his election campaign, was also arrested on suspicion of tax evasion.

"Babaryko is detained because he was the organiser and leader of illegal activities, (and) tried to influence witness testimony," Ivan Tertel, the head of the state control committee, told the AFP news agency.

He accused Mr Babaryko of colluding with "puppeteers" from Moscow.

Mr Babaryko and his son were on their way to submit signatures required to register as candidates when they stopped answering phone calls, his campaign website said.

"Viktor and Eduard are 'giving testimony,' which is an investigative action without the presence of lawyers," his Twitter account wrote.

"Viktor and Eduard's lawyers were not allowed inside, citing what they called 'drills' inside the building," it added.

Mr Babaryko was once head of Belgazprombank, a Belarus subsidiary of Russian energy giant Gazprom, before entering politics.

His arrest comes at a time of increased pressure on government critics ahead of the August election. Prominent opposition politician Mikola Statkevich was also recently jailed.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said "all arbitrarily detained" politicians and activists should be released.

 
Potential excuse for Russian meddling?
 
I saw a video last night of the rehearsals for the victory parade in Moscow that is happening on Wednesday next week, there is certainly some impressive looking kit out on display, good excuse for some posturing. (also a lot of WW2 kit out for the history buffs)

 
I saw a video last night of the rehearsals for the victory parade in Moscow that is happening on Wednesday next week, there is certainly some impressive looking kit out on display, good excuse for some posturing. (also a lot of WW2 kit out for the history buffs)

Breakdowns to be included for realism and attention to detail.
 
Just seen this:

The Centre for Geopolitics warmly invites you to a virtual panel discussion on

Baltic States 1939-1940

Wednesday 24 June 2020, 18.00 - 19.15 (UK time)

This month marks the eightieth anniversary of the occupation of the Baltic States by the Soviet Union in June 1940. It was the start of a long nightmare for their inhabitants which only ended with the re-establishment of their independence in 1991. The United Kingdom, long a Baltic power, condemned Stalin's coup at the time, but ultimately acquiesced in it in the context of the Grand Alliance against Hitler and then the post-war European settlement. This history and its consequences for modern Europe is insufficiently understood. At a time when some seek once again to challenge the sovereignty of the Baltic countries, and the UK is delivering a major part of NATO deterrence in the region, the Centre for Geopolitics has assembled a distinguished cast of politicians, diplomats, and historians to explore the history of the time, what the occupation means today, and where the United Kingdom sits within the Baltic, past and present.

The panel:

Charles Clarke, Former Home Secretary (chair)

Kaja Tael, Former Estonian Ambassador to the European Union, now Estonian Ambassador at Large for Climate and Energy Policy.

Patrick Salmon, Chief historian at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and an expert on Britain's relationship with the Baltic.

Kristina Spohr, Professor at London School of Economics. Her many books include Post Wall, Post Square (London, 2019) and Germany and the Baltic problem after the Cold War (London, 2004).

---

Where? This is a virtual panel, held on Zoom
When? Wednesday 24 June 2020: 18.00 - 19.15 (UK time)

Register here: Baltic States 1939-1940 | Centre for Geopolitics
 

Zhopa

War Hero
I'll be there. The first three panelists should be solid, but I wonder what an LSE professor's take on it all will be.

At least we won't (shouldn't) be hearing the Putin version à la National Interest a couple of days ago.
 
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