The Baltics: should Britain be rushing to their defence?

Being as how they will be facing the grand total of null points in the MBT numbers in the Baltics, they could dig up some ancient T-55’s and brush the local yokels aside.

On the more pressing front.

No ones laughing at large numbers of S-400’s, SS-N-27’s and Iskander M within Russian territory, all controlled and directed by the high end of the Russian C2 structure, that would make life ‘interesting’ for any NATO Air, Sea or Land Cavalry riding to the rescue and coming to play on Ivans home pitch.

We do a bit of Kabuki theatre with assorted forces to play at Errol Flynn rescuing the Baktic wagon train, but we all know bloody well, if Vlad wants it, he can take it, and by the time we wake up, it’s too late bar WW3 and a balls to the wall invasion East to do anything about it - and we know how well invading Russia always turns out.
You are being a total bellthronk or I've missed Canadian armour in Latvia, German armour in Lithuania and oh, yes, British armour in Estonia, not to mention legions of BMPs, Boxers, CV90s and various CVR(T) and SPGs with most nations fitting Spike to their helicopters and vehicles.

Should you read the report, then for Latvia alone, the Russians would need to field 120,00 combat troops, plus rear echelon - being conservative and giving them home advantage, should we call that 5:1, or the best part of a 720,000 troops for one Member State; over two million for all three States. Attrition, and it will be heavy, will add to their burden.

So please grow up and stop posting B/S
 
I'm not sure anyone has posted this but it definitely belongs in here. Swedish Defence Research paper on the Russian A2/AD complex in the Baltic and whether it is all it's cracked up to be:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...-R--4651--SE&usg=AOvVaw3EqdkbizuaBWYY57h53_cM

The tall blonde ones seem to think it's not as good as all that and very dependent on some rather old-fashioned ISTAR assets (two Il-38 May squadrons) to work.
 
I'm not sure anyone has posted this but it definitely belongs in here. Swedish Defence Research paper on the Russian A2/AD complex in the Baltic and whether it is all it's cracked up to be:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi2m6T7lJPjAhXeShUIHW5cCNIQFjABegQIAhAC&url=https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI-R--4651--SE&usg=AOvVaw3EqdkbizuaBWYY57h53_cM

The tall blonde ones seem to think it's not as good as all that and very dependent on some rather old-fashioned ISTAR assets (two Il-38 May squadrons) to work.
@PhotEx reading time again...
 
This Twitter thread is about the other end of the planet, but it's relevant. Taiwan is developing a defence plan against China built on lots and lots of cheap and deadly anti-ship missiles mounted on fast attack craft and trucks on shore, plus sea mining in a big way. This is of course an A2/AD strategy, just with AShMs on boats rather than hyooge rockets in silos. Someone ran a simulation campaign:


Shorter: under their assumptions (which include a perfect Chinese first strike against the ROC air force, not necessarily realistic) the plan didn't work, but it went much, much better for the Taiwanese if just one US E-3 Sentry and one EC-130 Compass Call showed up. I don't know if they tried to model the mine warfare stuff at all.

The point? Like the Swedish FOI paper says, the difficult bit in building an A2/AD bubble or as the Russians call it, a reconnaissance-strike complex, is the ISTAR element. Thinking about it, this is also what let down both the Iranians vs the USN in the 1980s and the Iraqis vs the RN in 1991 - you might have a pack of deadly missiles on your speedboat but you don't have very much of a radar (or even visual) horizon, a C2 fit, or an electronic warfare sensor, so the chance of you finding the enemy ships before their helicopters find you is not good enough.
 
ooi, how much of the brass in the Baltic were trained under the old regime ? Did they have plans for dealing with NATO aggression ( useful because they'd show us how they saw an attack develop and how they'd plans to regain ground and chuck us out.) Anyone seen them ?
 
ooi, how much of the brass in the Baltic were trained under the old regime ? Did they have plans for dealing with NATO aggression ( useful because they'd show us how they saw an attack develop and how they'd plans to regain ground and chuck us out.) Anyone seen them ?
? Please re-think your thoughts.
 
? Please re-think your thoughts.
Ah, Ok, what I meant was that the warpac had various what if scenarios. Now, an invasion of the Baltic States by NATO may well have been one. The many likely axis of NATO advance to seize strategic locations etc etc would be studied and the warpac counter attacks planned to cut off and destroy the advance. It may have been the subject of exercises and war games in the old days, I don't know. Now if such plans existed, they would have been studied by the regional warpac forces of that era. Those who served under the previous establishment may well be versed in those plans. It would give an idea of what the Russians might do in an attempt to occupy the Baltic States and what they expect NATO to do. It's pure speculation on my part.
 
Sweden to boost Gotland air defence amid Russia tensions - Reuters
Further to the post on Sweden's view on Russian A2AD, Sweden have announced installing a new SAM system in Gotland, replacing the old mobile gun platforms:
“Gotland is an important area from a military-strategic perspective,” Micael Byden, supreme commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, said in a statement.

“Its geographical location gives the island significant military advantages in terms of protection and control of sea traffic, the Baltic’s airspace and the ability to base military units and capabilities.”
The article doesn't say which system, but this report says it's the BAMSE SRSAM one:
Sweden boosts Gotland air missile defence: 'Quick solution'

Talking of A2AD, I don't recall this map being posted before. If it has, apologies:
The Russia - NATO A2AD Environment | Missile Threat
 
Estonian troops are in Mali
They have recently deployed the robot, THEmIS (nick named the mule )
Weights 1.4 tonne and can carry 400 to 800 kg
Troops, Ammo, Rations or wounded
Based in GAO
They have been a bigger help for the french than any other contingent
Only 80 strong
They try their best
Why wouldn't you not help them if Popov invades them?
No baws ?
 

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