The Arab Winter - did SDSR forsee this?

Discussion in 'Strategic Defence & Spending Review (SDSR)' started by Yokel, Jan 1, 2013.

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  1. From: Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter - Telegraph

    Yet defence policy is looked into five year cycles of not being reviewed. So much for the OODA concept.
     
  2. Perhaps the biggest weakness in UK National thinking, if you are talking OODA loops, is the the lack of "Understand". Our standing capacity to Orientate in advance of future crises is poor. This is compounded by an over-reliance on the views of National Agencies, who are in essence short-term collectors rather than long term trend analysts. This leads to more of an "ODA" loop along the lines of: Observe that something in the World has gone pear-shaped and it now affects us, Decide "something must be done", Act and reap the consequences. In short, a reactive cycle.....

    UK is not alone in this, most states are weak in the same area. To take but two areas that will fundamentally affect us in the coming years - shale oil and the unravelling of the Middle East, both could have been factored into the strategic calculus, but in general, weren't. Indeed, history holds surprisingly few examples of states that successfully anchored their foreign policy on pre-emptive Understanding - Elizabethan England is perhaps one...
     
  3. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    The coming Korean winter should command our attention too.

    Fair enough it's a long way away and we could bottle it for that reason but we should not kid ourselves that whatever comes to pass on the Korwean peninsular will not affect us.


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  4. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

  5. It's Kim Wrong Un's brand of instant sunshine that worries me.
     
  6. FORMER_FYRDMAN

    FORMER_FYRDMAN LE Book Reviewer

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  7. Why the f**k are you asking me what Yokel would do differently?

    Return the STOVL aeroplane which we dare not name to service, as a wild guess? ^~
     
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