Tehran protests growing - Iranian crackdown?

#1
Deep seated anger?

Tehran protests appear to be gathering momentum to the extent that the regime might be provoked.

From contacts who have visited the country it appears to have some quite surprising freedoms in parts but I wonder if this will be a tipping point if dissent not quelled.
 
#2
BoomShackerLacker said:
Deep seated anger?

Tehran protests appear to be gathering momentum to the extent that the regime might be provoked.

From contacts who have visited the country it appears to have some quite surprising freedoms in parts but I wonder if this will be a tipping point if dissent not quelled.
Some Iranians think that the opposition is sponsored by the US and Israel, or that could be dinnerjacket propaganda.
 
#3
As long as the mad mullahs hold sway (and I don't think that has changed), the dissidents are going to get nowhere. Bit of bloodshed and less liberties than before is all Iran is going to get out of all this.
 

Biped

LE
Book Reviewer
#4
An interesting feature of Iran and Iranians is the fact that, despite the mad clerics, and their iron grip on the President, the PM and the people, it is remarkably cosmopolitan and free by comparison to the people in other ME countries. There's quite a bit of wealth distributed around the place, the people are generally well educated, and as a whole, Iranians are far more 'westernised' than their neighbours in other countries.

We do give them a hard time here in the West, mainly because of the goings on with the septics - who have a particular hard-on for them for all manner of reasons.

I think that Britain needs to work harder on working with the Iranians as people we can do business with, despite the Ipod fiasco.

Edited to add: Oh, no, sorry, forgot - the EU will be doing our foreign policy too.
 
#5
Entirely agree with Biped. My admittedly brief visits to the place have left me with he impression that they're our natural allies in the ME, far more so than the Arabs are.

Foreign sabre-rattling or domestic rioting plays directly into the hands of the hard-liners there as in any other country we shake Wilkinson at. Pound to a pinch that there'll be a crackdown against 'pro-Western elements', but how long they keep it up in the face of popular dissatisfaction with the election result is a horse of a different colour.
 

BuggerAll

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
#6
They are talking about this now on PM on R4. They have just said there may be millions on the streets in Tehran protesting.

Apparently Mousavi was told immediately after the election by the electoral authority that he had won only to have the I'm-a-dinner-jacket loon sending in the islamo-goons a few hours later.
 
#7
in_the_cheapseats said:
As long as the mad mullahs hold sway (and I don't think that has changed), the dissidents are going to get nowhere. Bit of bloodshed and less liberties than before is all Iran is going to get out of all this.
Probably; I remember being optimistic about the protests in China in 1989, especially after the Berlin Wall came down.
 
#8
mac1 said:
Probably; I remember being optimistic about the protests in China in 1989, especially after the Berlin Wall came down.
Without wishing to derail the thread, the 1989 protests have had some unintended effects nobody could have guessed at the time. Have a look at what Wen was doing at the time and ask how he managed to go from there to where he is now.

People like the mullahs rely on the at least tacit support of the people; going in boots-and-fists might squash dissent in the short term and mute it in the medium, but it only ever increases it in the long term.
 
#10
Apparently victory was declared in a landslide 62% to 30% vote over Mousavi almost immediately after voting ended. The ballots were cast on paper, it takes 2-3 days here in the US to count and that's computerized.

This was an internal coup. Whatever republic Iran had is now dead. Actually, for the US dinnerjacket winning is the better of the two for us. A nicer face on Iran would have made asserting ourselves a little more difficult.

Too bad for the Iranians however, it truly looks like they believed they had some sort of influence in their own country.
 
#11
ghost_us said:
Apparently victory was declared in a landslide 62% to 30% vote over Mousavi almost immediately after voting ended. The ballots were cast on paper, it takes 2-3 days here in the US to count and that's computerized.

This was an internal coup. Whatever republic Iran had is now dead. Actually, for the US dinnerjacket winning is the better of the two for us. A nicer face on Iran would have made asserting ourselves a little more difficult.

Too bad for the Iranians however, it truly looks like they believed they had some sort of influence in their own country.
It's your Gore to their Mousavi?

Is this 'revolution' spreading anywhere outside of Tehran's middle-classes though?
 
#12
BoomShackerLacker said:
Is this 'revolution' spreading anywhere outside of Tehran's middle-classes though?
This was the very question I came here to post. Everyone I have seen demonstrating looks well fed, well dressed and very well-to-do. Put it this way, it all looks far more Countryside Alliance than poll tax...

My prediction is that there will be some quick/dirty counter-revolutionary actions by the Dinner-Jacket's goons/working class fan club, and the middle class will get hammered like it did back when they got rid of the Shah.

Hmmm, time to get James Clavell's Whirlwind out again...
 
#13
ghost_us said:
This was an internal coup. Whatever republic Iran had is now dead. Actually, for the US dinnerjacket winning is the better of the two for us. A nicer face on Iran would have made asserting ourselves a little more difficult.

Too bad for the Iranians however, it truly looks like they believed they had some sort of influence in their own country.
I wouldn't jump to conclusions about the Iranians, I have worked with many of them and they believe, like us, that they live in (a form of) democracy. I suspect that this attempt to subvert the electoral system will eventually fail. Remember that the Iranian people, unlike the Saudi's etc, have already overthrown one dictatorship.

Your comments about 'asserting ourselves' almost made me hope that the Iranians get nuclear weapons as soon as possible until I remembered that, unlike Bush, Obama is a grown up politician.
 

BuggerAll

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
#14
Schleswig-Holstein said:
BoomShackerLacker said:
Is this 'revolution' spreading anywhere outside of Tehran's middle-classes though?
This was the very question I came here to post. Everyone I have seen demonstrating looks well fed, well dressed and very well-to-do. Put it this way, it all looks far more Countryside Alliance than poll tax...

My prediction is that there will be some quick/dirty counter-revolutionary actions by the Dinner-Jacket's goons/working class fan club, and the middle class will get hammered like it did back when they got rid of the Shah.

Hmmm, time to get James Clavell's Whirlwind out again...
I'm-a-dinner-jacket has some thing in common with ZaNU Labour. They keep the poor in poverty so that they are clients of the state who rely on the state fro their livly hood and then guess who they support. You can also tell when they are lying - their lips move.
 
#15
Americans and Europeans have been misreading Iran for 30 years. Even after the shah fell, the myth has survived that a mass movement of people exists demanding liberalization — a movement that if encouraged by the West eventually would form a majority and rule the country. We call this outlook “iPod liberalism,” the idea that anyone who listens to rock ‘n’ roll on an iPod, writes blogs and knows what it means to Twitter must be an enthusiastic supporter of Western liberalism. Even more significantly, this outlook fails to recognize that iPod owners represent a small minority in Iran — a country that is poor, pious and content on the whole with the revolution forged 30 years ago.
That would include me. I still have high hopes for the Persians' ability and wish to live in a democracy. These protests could never have happened in Arab states - Hama rules and all that...
Complete article:
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_iranian_reality
 
#16
Schleswig-Holstein said:
This was the very question I came here to post. Everyone I have seen demonstrating looks well fed, well dressed and very well-to-do. Put it this way, it all looks far more Countryside Alliance than poll tax...

My prediction is that there will be some quick/dirty counter-revolutionary actions by the Dinner-Jacket's goons/working class fan club, and the middle class will get hammered like it did back when they got rid of the Shah.

Hmmm, time to get James Clavell's Whirlwind out again...
They also looked rather young and rather female, two groups very under represented by the current leadership.

The 'middle classes' as you call them are successfull, hard working, professionals who want their votes counted - not to be confused with the corrupt political elite overthrown under the shah.
 
#17
From the slightly iffy STRATFOR, an interesting article on how listening to English-speaking Iranians might not be the best way to gauge the feeling in Iran...

Western Misconceptions Meet Iranian Reality
By George Friedman

In 1979, when we were still young and starry-eyed, a revolution took place in Iran. When I asked experts what would happen, they divided into two camps.

The first group of Iran experts argued that the Shah of Iran would certainly survive, that the unrest was simply a cyclical event readily manageable by his security, and that the Iranian people were united behind the Iranian monarch’s modernization program. These experts developed this view by talking to the same Iranian officials and businessmen they had been talking to for years — Iranians who had grown wealthy and powerful under the shah and who spoke English, since Iran experts frequently didn’t speak Farsi all that well.

The second group of Iran experts regarded the shah as a repressive brute, and saw the revolution as aimed at liberalizing the country. Their sources were the professionals and academics who supported the uprising — Iranians who knew what former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini believed, but didn’t think he had much popular support. They thought the revolution would result in an increase in human rights and liberty. The experts in this group spoke even less Farsi than the those in the first group
More here....

OOPS! missed earlier post by para_medic :oops:
 
#18
It does seem to be going into meltdown with the big man realising that Amadinajad might just have put him in a difficult position. Revolution number 2 perhaps?
 
#19
IT_Guy said:
ghost_us said:
This was an internal coup. Whatever republic Iran had is now dead. Actually, for the US dinnerjacket winning is the better of the two for us. A nicer face on Iran would have made asserting ourselves a little more difficult.

Too bad for the Iranians however, it truly looks like they believed they had some sort of influence in their own country.
I wouldn't jump to conclusions about the Iranians, I have worked with many of them and they believe, like us, that they live in (a form of) democracy. I suspect that this attempt to subvert the electoral system will eventually fail. Remember that the Iranian people, unlike the Saudi's etc, have already overthrown one dictatorship.

Your comments about 'asserting ourselves' almost made me hope that the Iranians get nuclear weapons as soon as possible until I remembered that, unlike Bush, Obama is a grown up politician.
I too have quite a few Persian friends, some of whom have quite interesting stories to tell mostly involving near death experiences.

As far as the asserting ourselves comment, the US is a superpower, by the very definition it influences other nations. This is not just militarily but also socially, economically, et al. So get off your high horse with the domination thing. GWB is gone but the US remains and will still use influence to further it's interests. Thinking that any other country wouldn't do this if they had the capability is naive.

I don't know what world you live in, but in mine, the less countries that have nukes (especially ones run by religious nuts) the better.
 
#20
ghost_us said:
I don't know what world you live in, but in mine, the less countries that have nukes (especially ones run by religious nuts) the better.
So the US will be giving their's up soon then?

I'm sure the Iraqi's wish they had them 6 years ago, Bliar and Bush may of thought twice about doing what god told them to do.
 

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