Tehran protests growing - Iranian crackdown?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by BoomShackerLacker, Jun 15, 2009.

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  1. Deep seated anger?

    Tehran protests appear to be gathering momentum to the extent that the regime might be provoked.

    From contacts who have visited the country it appears to have some quite surprising freedoms in parts but I wonder if this will be a tipping point if dissent not quelled.
     
  2. Some Iranians think that the opposition is sponsored by the US and Israel, or that could be dinnerjacket propaganda.
     
  3. in_the_cheapseats

    in_the_cheapseats LE Moderator

    As long as the mad mullahs hold sway (and I don't think that has changed), the dissidents are going to get nowhere. Bit of bloodshed and less liberties than before is all Iran is going to get out of all this.
     
  4. Biped

    Biped LE Book Reviewer

    An interesting feature of Iran and Iranians is the fact that, despite the mad clerics, and their iron grip on the President, the PM and the people, it is remarkably cosmopolitan and free by comparison to the people in other ME countries. There's quite a bit of wealth distributed around the place, the people are generally well educated, and as a whole, Iranians are far more 'westernised' than their neighbours in other countries.

    We do give them a hard time here in the West, mainly because of the goings on with the septics - who have a particular hard-on for them for all manner of reasons.

    I think that Britain needs to work harder on working with the Iranians as people we can do business with, despite the Ipod fiasco.

    Edited to add: Oh, no, sorry, forgot - the EU will be doing our foreign policy too.
     
  5. Entirely agree with Biped. My admittedly brief visits to the place have left me with he impression that they're our natural allies in the ME, far more so than the Arabs are.

    Foreign sabre-rattling or domestic rioting plays directly into the hands of the hard-liners there as in any other country we shake Wilkinson at. Pound to a pinch that there'll be a crackdown against 'pro-Western elements', but how long they keep it up in the face of popular dissatisfaction with the election result is a horse of a different colour.
     
  6. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    They are talking about this now on PM on R4. They have just said there may be millions on the streets in Tehran protesting.

    Apparently Mousavi was told immediately after the election by the electoral authority that he had won only to have the I'm-a-dinner-jacket loon sending in the islamo-goons a few hours later.
     
  7. Probably; I remember being optimistic about the protests in China in 1989, especially after the Berlin Wall came down.
     
  8. Without wishing to derail the thread, the 1989 protests have had some unintended effects nobody could have guessed at the time. Have a look at what Wen was doing at the time and ask how he managed to go from there to where he is now.

    People like the mullahs rely on the at least tacit support of the people; going in boots-and-fists might squash dissent in the short term and mute it in the medium, but it only ever increases it in the long term.
     
  9. Apparently victory was declared in a landslide 62% to 30% vote over Mousavi almost immediately after voting ended. The ballots were cast on paper, it takes 2-3 days here in the US to count and that's computerized.

    This was an internal coup. Whatever republic Iran had is now dead. Actually, for the US dinnerjacket winning is the better of the two for us. A nicer face on Iran would have made asserting ourselves a little more difficult.

    Too bad for the Iranians however, it truly looks like they believed they had some sort of influence in their own country.
     
  10. It's your Gore to their Mousavi?

    Is this 'revolution' spreading anywhere outside of Tehran's middle-classes though?
     
  11. This was the very question I came here to post. Everyone I have seen demonstrating looks well fed, well dressed and very well-to-do. Put it this way, it all looks far more Countryside Alliance than poll tax...

    My prediction is that there will be some quick/dirty counter-revolutionary actions by the Dinner-Jacket's goons/working class fan club, and the middle class will get hammered like it did back when they got rid of the Shah.

    Hmmm, time to get James Clavell's Whirlwind out again...
     
  12. I wouldn't jump to conclusions about the Iranians, I have worked with many of them and they believe, like us, that they live in (a form of) democracy. I suspect that this attempt to subvert the electoral system will eventually fail. Remember that the Iranian people, unlike the Saudi's etc, have already overthrown one dictatorship.

    Your comments about 'asserting ourselves' almost made me hope that the Iranians get nuclear weapons as soon as possible until I remembered that, unlike Bush, Obama is a grown up politician.
     
  13. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    I'm-a-dinner-jacket has some thing in common with ZaNU Labour. They keep the poor in poverty so that they are clients of the state who rely on the state fro their livly hood and then guess who they support. You can also tell when they are lying - their lips move.
     
  14. That would include me. I still have high hopes for the Persians' ability and wish to live in a democracy. These protests could never have happened in Arab states - Hama rules and all that...
    Complete article:
    http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_iranian_reality