Tanker attacks Gulf of Oman

Krautman

War Hero
Bloody snowflakes! We never had any of that when I was a lad. You climbed up ta rope ladder and if you fell off tough shit ;-)
And all that nice flogging round the fleet, Rum, Sodomy & the Lash, your vacation at Cape Tragfalgar. That surely were the days.:rofl:^~
 

Yokel

LE
Surely US Policy since the Carter days has been to defend oil supplies - the 'Carter Doctrine'. Does the US no longer need Arab oil? What about Western Europe, Japan, etc?

Surely the US suffers if there is a global recession that hurts export markets?
 
Caveat: Have not read the thread throughout.

Yanks will kick off with Iran, this will please yanks for oil revenue, Isralis to divert attention at home from their parliament issues and... it would be a perfect opportunity for us to wade in with “our closest allies” and kick the Brexit can further down the road.

It’s all very convenient. Now where’s my tinfoil?!
 
Why would they need rifles?
By all accounts it was a covert op to remove a Limpet Mine there does appear to be 4 soldiers on board, it stands to reason they would be armed.
If they were a boarding party who had been searching the ship, the rifles may have been a normal part of their standard kit they had with them when they got called out.

The crews had all been lifted off.
We don't know what time the video was taken. It is known that the Iranians did help remove the crew. As the boat moves away you can see quite a few bodies wearing Life Jackets standing up. Later in a close up they are all heavily pix elated. I am in no way a conspiracy theorist but that video doesn't add up.
It might help if we had a bit more context to put things in, rather than the video starting just at the point where someone is reaching up to remove whatever it was. Odd how they chose to start the video at that point, isn't it?

As for all the other guys standing around nonchalantly in the middle of the boat, if some EOD guy was in the bow fiddling with an unexploded mine, I think I would be curled up in the stern as far away from him as possible. Iranian EOD guys must be absolutely awesome if everyone there has such complete confidence in them.

I'm not sure what went on, and the video raises more questions than it answers.
 
So are “exports”. If Hormuz becomes a no-go zone then... “fracking hell!” Oil revenue heaven.
If things kick off in a big way in the Persian Gulf, whatever oil is available on the open market in the rest of the world will go to whomever is willing to pay the highest price for it, regardless of traditional markets. The same goes for refined products and natural gas, although the latter may take longer to react in some cases.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
The US would benefit massively if the price of oil went up. By your reasoning the US would be planting the mines.
Why use an American torpedo when you can prevail on your ONLY regional ally to use one of theirs?


Dolphin-class submarine - Wikipedia

The Dolphin 2-class are the largest submarines to have been built in Germany since World War II.[3] The Dolphin class boats are the most expensive single vehicles in the Israel Defense Forces.[5] The Dolphin-class replaced the aging Gal-class submarine, which had served in the Israeli navy since the late 1970s. Each Dolphin-class submarine is capable of carrying a combined total of up to 16 torpedoes and submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs).[6] The cruise missiles have a range of at least 1,500 km (930 mi)[7] and are widely believed[8][9] to be equipped with a 200 kiloton nuclear warhead containing up to 6 kilograms (13 lb) of plutonium.[10][11] The latter, if true, would provide Israel with an offshore nuclear second strike capability.
 
And for love of god, whatever you do, don't call Iranians Arabs - they really get riled up over it! ME diplomacy 101.
It's exactly why you do it. Pakistani is even better.
 
State sponsor behind May tanker attacks, says UAE minister - Reuters
UAE assess the 12th May attacks (the ones last month), were ‘state sponsored’. They’ve not named the state and hope ‘working with friends and partners in preventing such escalations from moving forward’.
“Our conclusion is this has only been possible by a state-sponsored attack,” Al Nahyan told reporters after meeting his Cypriot counterpart in Nicosia, referring to the May attack.

“We haven’t named the state, but we hope that we can further work with our friends and partners in preventing such escalations from moving forward,” he added.
 

Nemesis44UK

LE
Book Reviewer

Nemesis44UK

LE
Book Reviewer
A lot of people are willing to take this incident at face value here and I'm not sure it should be.

I'm playing Devil's Advocate here, but how about these alternatives to the accepted story?

1) - Saudi Arabia has for a long time desired more influence and power, particularly at the cost of Iran. Emboldened by what they see as a weak leader in Trump (as evidenced by the inactivity over the Khashoggi murder) decide to launch a black op. Using a stolen or mocked up Iranian boat, they plant Iranian-issued mines onto the tankers. This plays into the hands of Pompeo who's been agitating for a fight for some time.

US gives Iran a sledging, with help from Tel Aviv maybe and lays Iran low. Saudis hoover up what there is left with no risk to them whatsoever and in the finest tradition of Saudi, they keep their hands clean.

2) - The CIA or a PMC (ex-Blackwater personnel would be fine) launch a black op as above. This serves two purposes - a chance to take the heat off Trump in the light of ever increasing calls for impeachment and it also gives Pompeo an excuse to kick off at Iran (I think they may've ogled his wife or something). The things to look for would be a higher-than-market value compensation paid to the tanker crew and parent corporaton.

3) - Israel. Tired of waiting for the US to get off their behinds and mallet Iran, they decide to move things along. Using a subsidiary of a subsidiary of a subsidiary, Mossad organises a bunch of malcontents to mine international shipping to harden resolve against their old nuclear desiring buddies.

4) - The IRGC has indeed gone off reservation and for whatever reason have decided to embark on a low-level guerilla campaign against foreign shipping. It's possible, but I'm not seeing an endgame, unless they're radical Islamists who just want to damage the Great Satan at which point, it's pretty stupid.

Other things to consider -

We don't know for sure that the sailors were removing mines from the hull of the tanker. It might be something else completely, like a magnetic clamp or something. The video appears to be edited early on so it isn't exactly clear.

If you wanted to attack a ship, it's my understanding that frogmen would do this job, below the waterline. Unseen. You would want to sink the ship instead of merely holing it.

Why then, is there a very visible boat with a very visible crew attending the tanker? Unless, of course, you wanted them to be seen so that the represented country could be blamed.

Also, the placement of the mines would indicate that you want to damage the ship, but not sink it. My point 2 relates.

When I hear hooves, I don't hear zebras, I hear horses, but there's something fishy about this and I'm not talking about limpet mine removing sailors.

ETA: From the BBC, Saudi have stirred the pot: "Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih earlier called for a "swift and decisive" response to the attacks."

Of course they have.
 
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Goodie, you're catching-on......but you do realise that the "contra" part was the second, Ollie North led, leg of that dubious exercise? A bit of a bonus bolt-on if you will....two birds with one stone.

People like @javaguzzisti will accuse anybody who suggests malavolent US and/or Israeli influence in the region as being anti-semitic, but it was the US and Israel Governments who arranged for the sale of US arms in breach of the UN emgbargo.....and both went to extreme lengths to deny it, including the fallacious "arms for hostages" claim.

None of the above makes it any more of less likely that Iran is today's guilty party.

It does, however, demand that caution be exercised when considering contemporary US claims.
As I consider Dubya a war criminal and Afghan and Iraq war crimes I am interested how you come to that conclusion.
I was also glad the Trump won simply to stop another stupid war in the ME we do not need.
 
Please stop. If you ever call an Indian a Pakistani, that's WW3 right there!

It's like calling the Scottish, English...except it will be worse....

They're all wusses.
 

LD17

Old-Salt
There are enough other players involved, be it the KSA or the USA, the MKO or whatever. I don't know, but you don't know either. You just can guess. Sorry to speak out so open but the KSA isn't exactly trustworthy and I am a bit wary about the US governments communiques. They simply told to much lies in the past.

In my opinion and with the Information we have at this time there is a 60% chance that the culprit is indeed Iran but that isn't enough. I wouldn't bet 50 Euro on that chance.
Oberst,

I do tend to agree with you.....after trying to replicate Adlee Stevenson’s Cuban Missile Crisis moment in the run up to the Iraq War we kind of shot our bolt and just look like the Boy who cried wolf. It’s just reality........I give it a 90% it was the Iranians but with the caveat that it was IRGC freelancing. I do believe, as other posters mentioned, that there seems to be a power struggle internally in Iran (and to some extent the U.S. too). I am glad we are not just attacking yet.........if it is indeed the IRGC I would like to see something specifically targeted at them. There is no rush, no one is going anywhere.......

Two bulls sitting on a grassy knoll spot a herd of cows down in the field, the young bull says “let’s run down there and f**k one of those cows”. The older bull says “no let’s walk down there and f**k them all”
 

Krautman

War Hero
Oberst,

I do tend to agree with you.....after trying to replicate Adlee Stevenson’s Cuban Missile Crisis moment in the run up to the Iraq War we kind of shot our bolt and just look like the Boy who cried wolf. It’s just reality........I give it a 90% it was the Iranians but with the caveat that it was IRGC freelancing. I do believe, as other posters mentioned, that there seems to be a power struggle internally in Iran (and to some extent the U.S. too). I am glad we are not just attacking yet.........if it is indeed the IRGC I would like to see something specifically targeted at them. There is no rush, no one is going anywhere.......

Two bulls sitting on a grassy knoll spot a herd of cows down in the field, the young bull says “let’s run down there and f**k one of those cows”. The older bull says “no let’s walk down there and f**k them all”
No Oberst. To much honour, just a accidential former Uffz d. R. Was it Robert Duvall or Sean Penn who said this?
 

LD17

Old-Salt
No Oberst. To much honour, just a accidential former Uffz d. R. Was it Robert Duvall or Sean Penn who said this?
Well quoting from two movies..........
Steve McQueen in “The Great Escape” (line of death scene for Oberst).........Duvall talking to Penn in “Colors”.......(Penn tries to tell it later and butchers it)
 
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As I consider Dubya a war criminal and Afghan and Iraq war crimes I am interested how you come to that conclusion.
I was also glad the Trump won simply to stop another stupid war in the ME we do not need.
Re-read my post........you've managed to extrapolate wildly into a non sequitur.
 

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