"Taiwans independence means war for America"

Discussion in 'The Intelligence Cell' started by KGB_resident, May 11, 2006.

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  1. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060511/wl_afp/uschinataiwan_060510225321;_ylt=Ai60zPbP5_DKPgP.nyzH5c2QOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

    Suppose that Taiwan would declare the independence. What would be a possible development? Should the UK support US (by troops or only morally)?
  2. Currently living in Shanghai this matter is mentioned a fair bit, its Beijing's nightmare that Taiwan will declare Independance at the begining of the Oylmpic games in 2008. It is highly likely that the PRC would invade almost immediately, the Taiwanese know this so its very unlikely that they will go for UDI. However its in US/Japanese interests to try to stir things up - which they constantly do.
  3. And there is no chance whatsoever of the US being supported by the UK or EU or virtually anyone else if it came to blows with China, just check on which Countries actually recognise Taiwan....
  4. On the invasion bit I offer this assesment

    (c) http://www.taiwanese.com/protest/critiques/TClancy1.html
  5. 1996? 10 years passed.

    China is now building (and buying) a lot of submarines.


    Can the Chinese produce hundreds of submarenes? They can. and naval blockade would mean economical death of Taiwan.
  6. They could Sergey but I doubt the world would look on as the Chinese attacked foreign flagged ships on their way to foreign ports from Taiwan. Also even against such a limited military aim as commerce raiding I think the Taiwanese could come out on top.

    But personally I think all the banter about independence, on both sides, is purely for domestic consumption. Taiwan does not need to declare independence which would result in a costly war even without invasion.
  7. Lasalle!

    You are right. Of course no one side needs a war. And the warning form Washington was really directed to China. Wars are unleashed if at least one side regards it as profitable. In this case it would be highly unprofitable... except one scenario

    1. Supporters of the Independence win Taiwanese elections.
    2. The independence is declared immediately.
    3. Tough Chinese ultimatum.
    4. American apeal for peace.
    5. Markets, Stock exchanges react nervously.
    6. China declares Taiwan and surounded waters as a forbidden zone.
    7. Tough statement from Washington.
    8. After a pressure Taiwanese independence is revoked.
    9. Supporters of the independence sell their shares bought during the crisis.
  8. Give China another ten or fifteen years. Maybe then they can provide a credible non-nuclear option to reunite with their misguided brothers across the sea. Until then, their military lift capability is limited to say the least.

  9. China is as far as I know still in the process of upgrading its armed forces, after it realised that the Russian Quantity approach doesn't work. On the flip side not so long ago I saw some footage of the Taiwanese army practicing. There was a troop of Brave Tigers (M-48's or M-60's can't remember now) Rolling down the beach nose to tail firing out to sea.


    Check out the Bodyguard system and LD-2000.
  10. The PLA(Navy) just doesn't have the lift capability or the firepower to mount an assault on Taiwan.
    Even after all their purchases and Russian technical assistance with Submarine development, it's a long way from building subs that are useable to deploying them on hostile ops.
    The US Navy is known to operate around Taiwan and would probably just 'accidently' let fly a couple of Tomahawks at the lead transport just so the Chinese government backed off.
    All very deniable to the media if it happens 100 miles out to sea.
    Not as if the average Chinese squaddie /marine would run to his local Sun(type) office to spill his guts.
  11. An old classmate of mine was a DIA China analyst and is now at JICPAC (Joint Intelligence Center PACific) at Pearl Harbor. I remember him saying once that the sub threat worries them more than anything else. Not so much the Taiwan straight, but around Japan, from where the US CVBG would be scrambled. Moreover, it's not the nulcear boats that have them worried. With the state of Chinese technology, the nuclear boats apparently make more noise than a Mexican's car stereo. What has them spooked are the diesel-electric boats that are deathly quiet when on electrical power, lurking just outside Yokosuka to sink a carrier.

    Of course, this comes at a point when the USN has decided to retire the S-3 Viking.
  12. And all the world's major naval powers no longer operate diesel-electric boats.......
    Nuclear WAS the way forward for years, only now do we see how short sighted that thinking was.
    Former Soviet Navy Kilo type subs are known to be one of the best ,when properly maintained and crewed.It takes time for these things to gel properly, but when they do, watch out.
    The PLA (Navy) would only really need 6 of these Kilo's to effectively blockade Taiwan. 4 on station and 2 either en-route to and from or in re-fit.
    Ideally they would have an extra 2 boats just in case, but they are hard as hell to locate once they dive and it would be a pure accident if a Kilo were ever caught in open water, as they can just snorkel to recharge their batteries and can stay submerged for a couple of days with fully topped off batteries.
  13. Isn't that area of the Sea also comparatively shallow as well?
  14. Most of that area is fairly shallow, but if they deploy their boats before hostilities are even likely to be underway, then they could be mid way between Pearl Harbour and Japan or Taiwan.
    Doubtful if they'd be doing a return to one of their mainland bases, but they are a 'volunteer service' even in China
    The US CVBG out of Pearl would be one hell of a coup for the PLA (Navy)
    even with the 2 SSN subs attached the Carrier group would be extremely vulnerable to a well prosecuted and timed attack from a diesel boat.
    Nuke subs make noise even at their quietest,whilst diesel-electrics are a virtual hole in the water,background noise or nothing at all.
    I know the US Navy has some of the best Sonar around but even that would have problems, as they found out in the seventies against an old A class British sub.
  15. They're aware of it and working on it. They're finding their programme where they leased HMSS Gotland and her crew for a year to be so successful that they've just asked to renew it for another year. I'm sure the Swedes are going 'Bloody brilliant! Another year with the San Diego Babes!' (Not that Swedish babes are anything to be depressed over)