Taiwan - Chances of War with China this year?

Not since 1942 I think.

You can see which bits they own by plotting the locations of all the ships the Japanese still have sitting on the sea bed...
 
But still the ability to hit precisely the types of targets that make amphibious ops possible.

The worst case for the PRC would be making a successful landing then having their supply line cut and their landing force compelled into an embarrassing surrender.


If and when the Heavenly Kingdom decide to launch an amphibious assault then the victory parade in Tiananmen should be something which reflects the fundamental pride and values of the PLC and wider Chinese culture. I think a synchronised dance with a snappy tune would be just the ticket.


Anyone who's ever worked in China will appreciate this.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
Russia now has a hostile Afghanistan on its southern border, backed by the loons in Pakistan, so can hardly afford an away match in Ukraine/ Baltics which would tie down lots of military to deal with recalcitrant populations.
China has a hostile Afghanistan, backed by loons in Pakistan, on its western border, that it's far more likely to stomp on than Taiwan, which isn't going anywhere and can be dealt with later.
Eastern and southern Europe now face ever more refugees appearing on their borders, while India has its hands full protecting itself from the Pakistanis and Chinese incursions.

Now, if the Taliban, as reported, hold the border crossings into Tajikistan and Iran, they could go either way, or both, and attract the daesh types from across the region.
Interesting times.

Two Points:

1. The idea of a future Taliban Government in Kabul posing a direct threat to either Russia or indeed China is mental. The beardies just want the West to leave them alone to get on with their own 14th Century lives.

2. Putin doesn't regard Ukraine as 'an away match' - he plainly regards it as part of Greater Russia, just as his Tsarist predecessors did. For some ethnic Russians (notably the natchalstvo who were disposessed when the Soviet regime folded) , the idea of an independent Ukraine runs contrary to nature.
The nearest American equivalent would be either Texas or California seceding from the United States.
( Jockistan pulling out of the United Kingdom isn't on the same scale)
 
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PRC has changed its policy of no first use of nukes by threatening Japan


Has it ****.

The equivalent of a local council admin worker posted a video on social media calling for them to nuke Japan if it invaded Taiwan - and the word they used means "invaded". The grown-ups pulled it almost immediately.

It's about as far from a policy as a DWP clerk in Macclesfield calling for HS2 to be extended is.
 

happyuk

War Hero
The CCP would never survive the consequences of a global conflict with other major powers.
China is a net importer of food and energy and their economy depends heavily on exports to the wealthy western nations.
The economic consequences of a (cold) war with the west would plunge the Chinese middle class back into poverty and famine and the CCP would lose its support in the population.
The one thing Xi and the other CCP bigshots care about is staying in power, so they will never risk it.
All this sabre rattling has the purpose of strengthening themselves internally. Its the oldest trick in the book.
Putin and Erdogan do it all the time. Provoke Western nations to divert the attention from internal issues.
 

JCC

LE
It (the world) seems to be doing this anyway, even though aware. All these money men that are the ones that are really running the show and pulling the politicians strings only care about money and trade. They have basically sold out their own country by letting the Chinese buy lots of their countries assets, borrowed lots of money from the Chinese and basically are letting China walk all over them.

“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” ― Vladimir Ilich Lenin

 

“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” ― Vladimir Ilich Lenin

It seems to me the west should be getting nervous and send out some warnings before things get out of hand.

 

JCC

LE
It seems to me the west should be getting nervous and send out some warnings before things get out of hand.


I'd be reluctant to start shooting my mouth off unless I was both willing and able to back it up. If the threat was shown to be a bluff then Western influence would be badly damaged globally.
 
It seems to me the west should be getting nervous and send out some warnings before things get out of hand.

Like maybe 70 years of funding Taiwan's defence accompanied by annual statements reiterating commitments to preventing the PRC taking Taiwan by force?

Those sort of warnings?
 
Like maybe 70 years of funding Taiwan's defence accompanied by annual statements reiterating commitments to preventing the PRC taking Taiwan by force?

Those sort of warnings?

Do you disagree with the idea of self determination then?

I thought we had that sorted after WW2.

Incidentally, does anyone think we can beat the Chinese if things turn hot? Judging by the comments on the Chinese Army FB page they'll all for sinking the PoW and Elizabeth and see the West as the aggressors.

I'm currently reading a book, Forgotten Voices of the Korean War. During that unfortunate soirée the Chinese would attack in human waves at night and would often overrun positions resulting in hand to hand combat.

I don't think the West would be willing to accept the inevitable high casualties, especially after the media grief whoring of Iraq and Afghanistan with the losses of a few thousand.

The Chinese also seem to be quite willing to fight to the death because they believe in their country and civilisation, that seems less obvious in the West nowadays. Anyone fancy putting their life on the line to defend DSS dossers and Tower Hamlets?
 
Do you disagree with the idea of self determination then?
I wholeheartedly don't disagree with it. Thing is, what I do and don't agree with has no impact on what actually happens in global politics.

In this particular case, there hasn't been any referendum in Taiwan on independence and both the pro-independence-now and pro-unification-now parties do laughably badly at the ballot boxes.

Added to that, there are very few countries that recognise Taiwan (ROC) as an independent state and ours is not among them. There isn't a single nation with any clout in international affairs which does.

That leads to two questions in my mind:

1) If the principle of self determination is so important, why does our nation not uphold it when it's inconvenient?

2) If we don't formally recognise Taiwan as an independent nation but informally treat them as if they were in normal dealings, why complain when the PRC acts as if our word can't be trusted?
 
The Chinese also seem to be quite willing to fight to the death because they believe in their country and civilisation, that seems less obvious in the West nowadays. Anyone fancy putting their life on the line to defend DSS dossers and Tower Hamlets?
If were going to war with the latter, how does one sign up for the Chinese Army..?
 
Anyone fancy putting their life on the line to defend DSS dossers and Tower Hamlets?
When I was younger and a squaddie I used to believe in the country and defending British interests. Now I am older I know that British interests just means some rich guy is getting richer and that never filters down to joe public or makes anyone's life better apart from the person that owns these interests.
Then you have the youth of today - a bunch of selfish twats that only care about themselves and the amount of likes they get, most politicians are also a bunch of self serving twats - and if they want to start a war, they can do the fighting themselves as I would not lift a finger to help them.
 
I’m afraid that to me Chinese actions seem more like a manufactured crisis in order to seek additional trade concessions out of the new US administration.
 
In an all-out non-nuclear war, are the Taiwanese strong enough to hold off a Chinese invasion, and even strike the Chinese mainland?

 
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