Taiwan - Chances of War with China this year?

PhotEx

On ROPS
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But still the ability to hit precisely the types of targets that make amphibious ops possible.

The worst case for the PRC would be making a successful landing then having their supply line cut and their landing force compelled into an embarrassing surrender.

do you think Biden is the man to go mano y mano with Xi over Matsu?
politically, China has a window if it chooses to take it,
 

Yokel

LE
How much economic damage would the PRC suffer if the World economy took a hit from an invasion of Taiwan? The regime in Beijing must be aware than a major economic disaster, and people losing the standard of living, is far more of a threat to their grip on power than the regime in Taipei.

At the same time, how would the rest of the World cope?
 
do you think Biden is the man to go mano y mano with Xi over Matsu?
politically, China has a window if it chooses to take it,
Let's face it - if any country wanted to do anything just now without the west interfering, now (or within the next 2 years) is the time to do it. Maybe some countries have plans for expansion, Russia with Ukraine, China with Taiwan, Iran with nukes or messing with Israel, North Korea with South Korea etc.
One things for sure, the west and particularly the USA is not going to help anyone just now - Their commander in chief is senile & the VP Kamala is way out of her depth. UK is pretty skint and can barely recruit any soldiers so keeps dropping requirements in the hope nobody notices. The EU have their own issues to deal with and don't even have an Army.
 

PhotEx

On ROPS
On ROPs
How much economic damage would the PRC suffer if the World economy took a hit from an invasion of Taiwan? The regime in Beijing must be aware than a major economic disaster, and people losing the standard of living, is far more of a threat to their grip on power than the regime in Taipei.

At the same time, how would the rest of the World cope?

The global economic fallout of WuFlu didn’t bother them.
the only metric Xi will use use wether he needs to strengthen his domestic position.
 
Perhaps not this year, but certainly closer than they have ever been in the recent past.

Unfortunately the combination of China’s global intellectual theft, its huge leap forward in selling goods to the world and consequent massive economic gains, combined with a huge increase in military spending and both qualitative and quantitative improvement, has been co-incidental with the unleashing of COVID on the globe.

The COVID pandemic has massively weakened every country economically with some more than others. It is a time when populations are at odds with their political leaders, when there is internal friction, along with Europe's present political disagreements over Brexit.

The US has been through a period of National turmoil under Trump who although a robust leader internationally was a man who provoked division within the country rather than a President who united the country. The resulting backlash has propelled to the Presidency a senile 'Judas Goat’ who is simply cover for a 1st black female President to assume power for the US's ‘woke’ left wing Democrats.

Russia has been chaffing under sanctions for Putin’s adventurism in the Crimea and can now be counted on to act as an ally by China, not because he backs the CCP’s quest for Global superiority, but it is the only advantage that he can count on to distract the West sufficiently for him to expand his hold in eastern Europe.

Whether COVID was released purposely, or accidentally by China is incidental, it was almost certainly produced there as part of a military program on bio weapons. China’s almost total dictatorial control of its population together with its views on individual human life and freedoms have allowed it to willingly sacrifice part of its own population as an acceptable price in weakening global opposition to the CCP's committed path to ruling the world. The recent change in nuclear strategy by both Russia and China would seem to indicate they are willing to engage in limited nuclear war...or to simultaneously eliminate the US.

Taiwan may or may not be the trigger for this eventuality, but they could simply gamble that the US under Biden would step back from that chance, and allow Taiwan to be taken. The CCP’s recent actions with COVID that have resulted in almost no repercussions have sent a very bad signal, and emboldened a rather nasty group who have very clear intentions.
 
Unfortunately the combination of China’s global intellectual theft
Says the man who's been caught multiple times passing other people's work off as his own on this very thread.
 
But still the ability to hit precisely the types of targets that make amphibious ops possible.

The worst case for the PRC would be making a successful landing then having their supply line cut and their landing force compelled into an embarrassing surrender.
The US response to China nibbling on a few minor Taiwanese islands would probably be to throttle China's overseas oil and LNG imports rather than to make a direct military attack. They would arm-twist the major exporters into not selling to China and simply blockade those who refused to fall into line. This would probably require a global import-export licensing system to prevent oil traders from reselling imports to another country.

By this means the Americans would hope to force China into line without having to start a major war. This would play to the Americans' major strengths, which are their political and diplomatic control over many of the major oil exporters, and their navy. This would let them conduct economic warfare at a safe distance from China's own centres of strength. Any military response by China would require the Chinese navy to do battle with the US navy at a great distance from China and where the US was at a decisive advantage. It also plays to the American fondness for "sanctions" as a tool for exercising power.

This all sounds disturbingly familiar, but I can't quite put my finger on it.
 
The US response to China nibbling on a few minor Taiwanese islands would probably be to throttle China's overseas oil and LNG imports rather than to make a direct military attack. They would arm-twist the major exporters into not selling to China and simply blockade those who refused to fall into line. This would probably require a global import-export licensing system to prevent oil traders from reselling imports to another country.

By this means the Americans would hope to force China into line without having to start a major war. This would play to the Americans' major strengths, which are their political and diplomatic control over many of the major oil exporters, and their navy. This would let them conduct economic warfare at a safe distance from China's own centres of strength. Any military response by China would require the Chinese navy to do battle with the US navy at a great distance from China and where the US was at a decisive advantage. It also plays to the American fondness for "sanctions" as a tool for exercising power.

This all sounds disturbingly familiar, but I can't quite put my finger on it.
You also forget cutting off exports of meat and grain to the Chinese. Food and energy are the Achilles heel of a nation with 1.5 billion plus. They also have some issues with their population in certain provinces that could deteriorate rather rapidly.
 
All countries have their ‘Achilles Heel’ its just a bit concerning when the ‘heel' is it’s ‘head’...or lack of.

Biden is not just a US liability...he’s a global one.
 
All countries have their ‘Achilles Heel’ its just a bit concerning when the ‘heel' is it’s ‘head’...or lack of.
Xi is a bit of a blessing in disguise. His belligerent stance, is at least allowing the world to take notice and prepare to deal with China. Japan will commit to the defence of Taiwan and the Aussies will as well. I would gather India, Vietnam, and Indonesia would see the writing on the wall and throw down, rather than fall later.

Had the Chinese stayed their previous course and just quietly amassed their economic strength, then the world would have just sleep walked into the Dragon’s Jaws.
 
Had the Chinese stayed their previous course and just quietly amassed their economic strength, then the world would have just sleep walked into the Dragon’s Jaws.
It (the world) seems to be doing this anyway, even though aware. All these money men that are the ones that are really running the show and pulling the politicians strings only care about money and trade. They have basically sold out their own country by letting the Chinese buy lots of their countries assets, borrowed lots of money from the Chinese and basically are letting China walk all over them.
 
It (the world) seems to be doing this anyway, even though aware. All these money men that are the ones that are really running the show and pulling the politicians strings only care about money and trade. They have basically sold out their own country by letting the Chinese buy lots of their countries assets, borrowed lots of money from the Chinese and basically are letting China walk all over them.
The Chinese have taken predatory lending to a new level. But those kinds of practices do have drawbacks. If the Natives get restless, the Chinese are going to have to intervene to preserve their assets and lives of their citizens in those countries. Like their African holdings. They have to work on their diplomacy first and foremost as the “Wolf Warrior” approach is not working.
 
Russia now has a hostile Afghanistan on its southern border, backed by the loons in Pakistan, so can hardly afford an away match in Ukraine/ Baltics which would tie down lots of military to deal with recalcitrant populations.
China has a hostile Afghanistan, backed by loons in Pakistan, on its western border, that it's far more likely to stomp on than Taiwan, which isn't going anywhere and can be dealt with later.
Eastern and southern Europe now face ever more refugees appearing on their borders, while India has its hands full protecting itself from the Pakistanis and Chinese incursions.

Now, if the Taliban, as reported, hold the border crossings into Tajikistan and Iran, they could go either way, or both, and attract the daesh types from across the region.
Interesting times.
 
Russia now has a hostile Afghanistan on its southern border, backed by the loons in Pakistan, so can hardly afford an away match in Ukraine/ Baltics which would tie down lots of military to deal with recalcitrant populations.
China has a hostile Afghanistan, backed by loons in Pakistan, on its western border, that it's far more likely to stomp on than Taiwan, which isn't going anywhere and can be dealt with later.
Eastern and southern Europe now face ever more refugees appearing on their borders, while India has its hands full protecting itself from the Pakistanis and Chinese incursions.

Now, if the Taliban, as reported, hold the border crossings into Tajikistan and Iran, they could go either way, or both, and attract the daesh types from across the region.
Interesting times.

Indeed they are!



I do wonder how many billions the Chinese have invested in Afghanistan… It does make sense that the US is going to leave rather quickly and let the PRC foot the tab.
 
Certainly time someone else steps in when donor fatigue sets in.

It is sobering to see how much can be given before realisation sets in, and, how some ‘less advanced nations' have perfected the art of extracting vast amounts by their cold calculated exploitation of their less fortunate inhabitants.

The marriage of China and N Korea, Pakistan, Africa, and now possibly Afghanistan, would seem marriages made in Heaven...or Hell for they really do deserve each other.
 
Let's face it - if any country wanted to do anything just now without the west interfering, now (or within the next 2 years) is the time to do it. Maybe some countries have plans for expansion, Russia with Ukraine, China with Taiwan, Iran with nukes or messing with Israel, North Korea with South Korea etc.
One things for sure, the west and particularly the USA is not going to help anyone just now - Their commander in chief is senile & the VP Kamala is way out of her depth. UK is pretty skint and can barely recruit any soldiers so keeps dropping requirements in the hope nobody notices. The EU have their own issues to deal with and don't even have an Army.
as opposed to the idiot that was there before - Putin's stooge?
 
It seems China is feeling emboldened now that it's messed up the world with it's Covid virus (with barely any consequences), how it's acted in Hong Kong, the way it's been treating the Uighurs, making man made islands, threatening Australia etc.

Now it's getting a bit uppity with Taiwan and has been constantly invading their airspace and threatening them:


What do you think the chances of China invading Taiwan, knowing that USA is being run by someone with mashed potatoes where their brain should be? China are probably not worried about any consequences if they did invade, they know the EU are toothless and the UN are useless and there's nobody really willing to stand up to them.
Pre-conditions of an attack are:-
1. Sufficient Forces, Amphibious and Air Transport all amassed with at least some measure of surprise. As a slow build up will generate international pressure.
2. The Americans will not immediately respond. That is helped by a doddering President whose entire political career has being built on making deals and taking safe choices.
3. Local Superiority in at least one or two landing sites and a successful second/third wave landed without interference.

My view is the next US President may well be more hawkish and so the Chinese will never have a better time, with the Taiwanese military itself not in great shape and a pandemic to distract everybody (convenient).

I do think the Chinese will also have to consider the chances of holding Taiwan securely. As Invading another country will inevitably see China become very isolated and they're can likely assume a serious security situation on the Island itself which will require a long term Garrison under constant harassment and if the economics turn sour a population less than enamoured with the government and its adventurism.
 
The Chinese have taken predatory lending to a new level. But those kinds of practices do have drawbacks. If the Natives get restless, the Chinese are going to have to intervene to preserve their assets and lives of their citizens in those countries. Like their African holdings. They have to work on their diplomacy first and foremost as the “Wolf Warrior” approach is not working.
I have previously addressed the question of Chinese investment in the mining industry in Africa and elsewhere and shown that much of what is reported in the press (or various blogs and Youtube channels) has little basis in fact.


Chinese mining investment in the third world was mainly in partnership with Western mining companies. In some cases the Chinese companies were buying out their Western partners as the latter were looking to sell mature mining properties in order to raise capital to develop new mines.

Here's a few quotes from business sources used ing those posts to give you a flavour of the business relationships.

Here's an example:
Further south, in Congo's copper belt, Vancouver-based Ivanhoe is developing a huge copper discovery and a major zinc mine.

Ivanhoe's billionaire founder, Robert Friedland, says the company's high-grade Kamoa-Kakula copper project in Katanga province is "the discovery of the century" and could become the biggest copper mine in the world. It is already considered the world's largest undeveloped copper mine.

(...) Chinese mining company Zijin is paying $412-million for half of Ivanhoe's majority stake in the Kamoa-Kakula mine, while the Congo government has acquired a 20-per-cent share of the mine.

This one shows that Western mining companies forming partnerships with Chinese companies is routine, and the reason is access to investment capital.
After spending billions of dollars and two decades trying — and failing — to build a mine on the border of Chile and Argentina, Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. is reverting to a predictable strategy: it wants to partner with a Chinese company.

And this offers a big reason why Western mining companies started looking for partnerships with Chinese firms in the first place, increasing American protectionism made dealing with the US either less attractive or even impossible.
He added that with Canada’s usual partner, the United States, now erecting tariffs on a growing list of minerals including steel, aluminum, and recently uranium, Canadian miners have greater reason than ever to advance their relationships with China.
 

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