Taiwan - Chances of War with China this year?

Biden yet again going off script on Taiwan:

Joe Biden suggests US would defend Taiwan against China, forcing fresh White House clarification

Or is he? For all his faults, Trump may have invented a new foreign policy, creative ambiguity through doubts about the sanity of the US president!

I personally believe that both Trump and Biden are saner than their detractors think.
There is a precedent. The communist bloc considered Nixon mad. Which made them a bit more circumspect.
 
Biden yet again going off script on Taiwan:

Joe Biden suggests US would defend Taiwan against China, forcing fresh White House clarification

Or is he? For all his faults, Trump may have invented a new foreign policy, creative ambiguity through doubts about the sanity of the US president!

I personally believe that both Trump and Biden are saner than their detractors think.
The thing with Biden is, he's as corrupt as they come and has form for lying. He can't be trusted and is a crap ally. Look how he abandoned his own allies in Afghanistan. He will keep messing up time and time again and make Americans poorer by the week. By the time it comes around to voting again - America will be begging for someone like Trump to take over the white house and try and undo all the damage the Biden administration has done.
I feel sorry for the USA regular people just now, and for some of the USA's allies, because the day that Biden was (fake) voted in, your country got worse and the world became a more dangerous place to live (ask the people abandoned in Afghanistan about that).
 
Biden strikes me as a senile sociopath who was a mediocrity on the best day of his life. He's presiding over a deeply divided party, a deeply divided country, and a problem economy. A perceived external threat might be helpful right about now.

Biden is also in thrall to some very cynical backers whose raison d'etre is accumulating obscene amounts of wealth.

Expect a new cold war in South East Asia. Don't be surprised if Iran becomes more and more of a political issue in 2022 either.
 
Expect a new cold war in South East Asia. Don't be surprised if Iran becomes more and more of a political issue in 2022 either.
Unfortunately, and forgive me if I seem to go off on a tangent here. Watch this, then my conclusion after.



It is no secret that the world is in a difficult place, global tensions abound, we have had a global pandemic, war drums are being beaten in various countries to try to divert populations from Governmental dilemmas, climate change is upon us and our population explosion is out of hand.

It will be no 'Cold War!'

Increasingly on the cards is a coming 'Hot War' the like of which may well purge this planet, and press the reset button.

We may...or may not, have by that time, sent a mission to ???

Not sure how much of a favour that will be to the universe.
 
Expect a new cold war in South East Asia. Don't be surprised if Iran becomes more and more of a political issue in 2022 either.
Unfortunately, and forgive me if I seem to go off on a tangent here. Watch this, then my conclusion after.



It is no secret that the world is in a difficult place, global tensions abound, we have had a global pandemic, war drums are being beaten in various countries to try to divert populations from Governmental dilemmas, climate change is upon us and our population explosion is out of hand.

It will be no 'Cold War!'

Increasingly on the cards is a coming 'Hot War' the like of which may well purge this planet, and press the reset button. It will certainly alter the population figures.

We may...or may not, have by that time, sent a mission to ???

Not sure how much of a favour that will be to the universe.
 
Lots of countries allow Taiwan to have de facto embassies, even the countries that don't agree it's an independent state - the other 4 UNSCP5 and the majority of other UN members, for example.

De facto keeps things ticking along without too many unacceptable compromises from anyone.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
 
The Taiwan Defense Ministry statement, complete with the usual pictorial flight path.

The Forces.net article gives several misleading impressions - firstly that the ADIZ has some sort of formal standing equivalent to territorial airspace; and secondly that the PRC is alone in not recognising Taiwan (ROC) as an independent nation.

The PLA aircraft stayed in international airspace from the moment they left PRC territorial airspace until they returned, and they did not at any time head toward Taiwan.

Under the US's code of practice for its own aircraft in such situations, it would not require them to identify themselves, cooperate with any attempt to restrict their freedom of navigation or even any submit to action that might suggest they don't have an absolute right to be there.
 

rampant

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Intimidation and testing of Taiwan's defences continue.

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Taiwan detects 39 Chinese warplanes, scrambles jets | DW | 23.01.2022
 
The RoC Ministry of National Defense tweets maps showing each incursion.

Each time, the PLA aircraft are shown over international airspace or PRC airspace. On the rare occasion they actually head towards a ROC governed island, they turn back before the midline (what would be the border between two national airspaces if ROC were recognised as independent).

The sort of flight we'd refer to as a 'freedom of navigation exercise' were it done by countries we like.
 
Wonder if Russia did move in Ukraine, would China make any move while everyone is preoccupied.?
 
Wonder if Russia did move in Ukraine, would China make any move while everyone is preoccupied.?
The logistical realities aren't affected by the presence or absence of the US.

In any case, the ROC most certainly won't be preoccupied with the Eastern part of the far side of the world, and it's unlikely Japan will be either.
 
The logistical realities aren't affected by the presence or absence of the US.

In any case, the ROC most certainly won't be preoccupied with the Eastern part of the far side of the world, and it's unlikely Japan will be either.
But all of Taiwan's besties like the EU, UK, US etc... will be preoccupied.

As far as the West would be concerned - if Russia mounted a proper overt invasion of Ukraine, would China think it 'a good day to bury bad news'?
 

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