Taiwan - Chances of War with China this year?

GW1 took six months to wrap up and GW2 against a weaker enemy still took three weeks and that was with the American
No it took 6 months to prepare for / and set up the UN legal framework, The actual war took about a month most of that being air strikes to pave the way for the ofensive
 
No it took 6 months to prepare for / and set up the UN legal framework, The actual war took about a month most of that being air strikes to pave the way for the ofensive
And you entirely missed my point.... Which was after the opening week or two of any campaign, the PLA will need six month to prepare and build up on the island and a political campaign will need that time to turn heads and create a party within the Taiwanese establishment for some kind of vichy like division.

I remain convinced, China doesn't want to fight for every square inch of the main island, but just effect a landing and then try to turn the political screws through the UN to create a solution that delivers the island to them in 20 years.
 

goodoldboy

MIA
Book Reviewer
I saw this today:


Seems like there's been a bit of planning going on by the Chinese, probably we should do a bit of spying to see what their invasion plan is really like:

@Emcon Ecomcon : did you see this? It's from some newspaper that has been given a copy of China's invasion plan for Taiwan...
 
@Emcon Ecomcon : did you see this? It's from some newspaper that has been given a copy of China's invasion plan for Taiwan...
Apparently, they intend to ensure their hold over Taiwan by declaring war on the US.

Nice of an Indian news channel to let us know.
 
Apparently, they intend to ensure their hold over Taiwan by declaring war on the US.

Nice of an Indian news channel to let us know.
Wouldnt suprise me to learn they had drafted

A plan that asumed US involvement so kicked off by nuetralising local US assets.
A plan that assumed no US involvement
A Plan that assumed US involvement would take time if they avoided hitting US assets.

A plan to counter a potential US / Taiwanese offensive

A plan to nuetralise Japan in order to take Taiwan

None of which prove theres any intention of actually doing so
 
Wouldnt suprise me to learn they had drafted

A plan that asumed US involvement so kicked off by nuetralising local US assets.
A plan that assumed no US involvement
A Plan that assumed US involvement would take time if they avoided hitting US assets.

A plan to counter a potential US / Taiwanese offensive

A plan to nuetralise Japan in order to take Taiwan

None of which prove theres any intention of actually doing so
Or in this case, considering that it's the Express citing an Indian news source of similar credibility, perhaps someone just made the whole thing up based on reading some of more "imaginative" posts on this thread. Their military correspondent is probably "earth".
 
Or in this case, considering that it's the Express citing an Indian news source of similar credibility, perhaps someone just made the whole thing up based on reading some of more "imaginative" posts on this thread. Their military correspondent is probably "earth".

Perhaps I couldve been clearer -
It wouldnt suprise me to learn there were plans

I dont doubt the article above is dog toffee probably based on someones comments when asked how would you do it at a dinner party.
 
@Emcon Ecomcon : did you see this? It's from some newspaper that has been given a copy of China's invasion plan for Taiwan...
I posted an opinion piece in response to a prevailing view on here and elsewhere, that an invasion was impossible. What other people write is hardly for me to defend and frankly I don't feel it necessary to defend my own views.

But just to restate the facts as I saw them.....The bottom line is China doesn't have the amphibious capacity to seize all of Taiwan's many islands at once and whatever forces are landed on the main island, will be primarily airborne for at least 1-2 weeks. It would certainly be an important political bridgehead and command the support of the entire PLAF. With a subsequent seaborne landing when shipping is freed up two or three weeks after the initial landing and then a long slow logistical build up over many months, but with an exclusion zone and submarine blockade in place.

Nobody really knows what the Americans will do, but most assume something less overt. What I have no doubt of, is if the Americans chose to intervene with its forces to directly defeat a CCP operation, then the CCP are more than willing to use tactical nuclear forces and people are kidding themselves that China is another Khrushchev (see: Cuba).
 

goodoldboy

MIA
Book Reviewer
I posted an opinion piece in response to a prevailing view on here and elsewhere, that an invasion was impossible. What other people write is hardly for me to defend and frankly I don't feel it necessary to defend my own views.

But just to restate the facts as I saw them.....The bottom line is China doesn't have the amphibious capacity to seize all of Taiwan's many islands at once and whatever forces are landed on the main island, will be primarily airborne for at least 1-2 weeks. It would certainly be an important political bridgehead and command the support of the entire PLAF. With a subsequent seaborne landing when shipping is freed up two or three weeks after the initial landing and then a long slow logistical build up over many months, but with an exclusion zone and submarine blockade in place.

Nobody really knows what the Americans will do, but most assume something less overt. What I have no doubt of, is if the Americans chose to intervene with its forces to directly defeat a CCP operation, then the CCP are more than willing to use tactical nuclear forces and people are kidding themselves that China is another Khrushchev (see: Cuba).
I would have expected an 'Informative' but thanks anyway...
 
Not quite - I didn't mention Special Forces or any boots landed on the ground.

Everything I mentioned as a possibility would be delivered by the Chinese via stealth missile or high level drone, maybe from outside the Earth's atmosphere.
Oh bless, Norfolk's foremost narcissist has blessed us all with his experience and insight.
 
B-1 Bombers Deploy To Diego Garcia For The First Time In Over 15 Years
b-1b_4.jpg
 
Biden's backers are calling in the marker. It's time for a new cold war and all the military spending that will entail.

I think it's time for a thread drift - in the general direction of "What defense stocks are set to rise?"
 
Biden's backers are calling in the marker. It's time for a new cold war and all the military spending that will entail.

I think it's time for a thread drift - in the general direction of "What defense stocks are set to rise?"
I actually think Biden doesn't want to do any of this, but the strength of opinion in the US is so strong, that he's trapped into threatening to sabre rattle, whether he has the physical or mental strength to pickup a sabre, mount a horse and charge is a moot point and none of those around him convince me either.

If America wanted to send a message, they're could do worse than appoint John Bolton as a special envoy and turn the UN situation around by openly pushing and calling on its allies to support Taiwan's formal recognition and readmission.
 
Biden's backers are calling in the marker.
Isn't it a bit of a coincidence that, so soon after the Afghanistan debacle and all the domestic criticism that went with it, routine activities in the area are suddenly being talked about in such ominous tones?
 

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